Try the model
BALL

Ball State 10 at Indiana 38

IU
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:21 · Mike Fiacable run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Pregame prior+5.2Home team on offense+35.4Score differential+27.6Garbage-time factor+11.4Blowout margin+12.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Stevie Scott run for 1 yd for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +2.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q2 12:26: Nathan Snyder punt for 39 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 86 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +4.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:22: Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +7.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:52: Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 18 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:08: James Gilbert run for 27 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:01BALL 4th & 11 at IU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:47IU 4th & 3 at BALL 3, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:55BALL 4th & 3 at IU 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:26BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:03BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:10IU 4th & 2 at BALL 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:40BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:53IU 4th & 7 at IU 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:06BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:34IU 4th & 1 at BALL 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:52BALL 4th & 15 at IU 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:49IU 4th & 11 at IU 19, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00IU 4th & 2 at IU 39, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:06BALL 4th & 20 at BALL 8, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:11BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:21IU 4th & 3 at BALL 3, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:55IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:22IU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:52IU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:08BALL Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:11IU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:5919% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 11 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
80.6%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
80.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
80.6%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
80.6%
James Gilbert run for 14 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
80.6%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+11
80.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 11 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
80.6%
Malik Dunner run for 14 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
80.6%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-1
80.6%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
80.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
79.3%
Morgan Hagee 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 85 yds · 3:0779% → 79%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
79.2%
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+44
79.2%
Whop Philyor run for 29 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jaylin Thomas) to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
79.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
79.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+20
79.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 20 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
79.7%
Stevie Scott run for 4 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
79.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for 5 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
79.5%
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
79.0%
Peyton Ramsey run for 6 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
79.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Nick Westbrook, broken up by Marc WaltonSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
78.8%
Logan Justus 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:4722% → 23%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
78.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Caleb HuntleySimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+23
78.4%
Riley Neal run for 23 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
78.0%
Riley Neal run for 10 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
77.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 9 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
77.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
77.9%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
77.7%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the Ind 30Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
77.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete, broken up by Ja'merez BowenSimilar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
77.3%
Morgan Hagee 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:0078% → 81%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
77.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 3 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-1
77.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 9 yds to the Ind 43 INDIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (Nick Westbrook) to the Ind 33Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+22
77.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Matt Bjorson for 22 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
78.2%
Stevie Scott run for 6 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
78.2%
Peyton Ramsey run for 6 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
78.4%
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+8
78.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 8 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
78.4%
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
78.4%
Peyton Ramsey run for 9 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
78.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 5 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
78.4%
Stevie Scott run for 4 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.6%
Stevie Scott run for 1 yd for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2920% → 16%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.7%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
79.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for 7 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
79.2%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
78.8%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
78.9%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+86
83.6%
Nathan Snyder punt for 39 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 86 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
83.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 3 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.5%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
83.5%
Justin Hall run for 6 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
83.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
83.7%
Nathan Snyder puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
85.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 2 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+9
85.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Matt Bjorson for 9 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
85.9%
Ramsey, Peyton pass complete to Timian, Luke for 3 yards to the BALL29, out-of-bounds (WALTON, Marc), PENALTY IND holding (Bjorson, Matt) 10 yards to the BALL42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+7
85.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 7 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+16
85.7%
Peyton Ramsey run for 16 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
85.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 8 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+5
85.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for 5 yds Stevie Scott fumbled, forced by Ray Wilborn, recovered by BalSt Jeremiah Jackson , return for 12 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
84.6%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+6
84.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 6 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+2
84.9%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
85.0%
Nathan Snyder punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
85.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 11 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
86.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
86.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 7 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
85.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
85.2%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
85.2%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-5
85.0%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Zac Ricketts) to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
85.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
85.6%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Corey Lacanaria) to the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+13
85.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 13 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
85.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 44 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:5186% → 95%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
86.3%
Stevie Scott run for 18 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
87.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 5 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
86.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for 2 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+19
86.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 19 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
87.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 11 yds to the BalSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
87.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for no gain to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
87.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 15 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
87.0%
Mike Majette run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 5Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.6%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
95.2%
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
95.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle, broken up by Marc WaltonSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
95.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to J-Shun Harris II, broken up by Brett Anderson IISimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
94.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 43 yds, downed at the BalSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
94.2%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
94.1%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-1
94.0%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
94.1%
Nathan Snyder punt for 49 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for no gain to the Ind 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:4296% → 99%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
95.7%
Stevie Scott run for 7 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+14
95.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 14 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
95.9%
BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (Jeremiah Jackson) to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
96.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 6 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+2
96.0%
Reese Taylor run for 2 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+8
95.9%
Stevie Scott run for 8 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
96.0%
Stevie Scott run for 9 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
96.0%
Michael Penix Jr. run for no gain to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
95.9%
Stevie Scott run for no gain to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+4
95.6%
Stevie Scott run for 4 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.4%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 18 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.3%
Justin Hall run for 15 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+30
99.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for 30 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
99.3%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+5
99.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Caleb Huntley for 5 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-6
99.3%
Riley Neal sacked by T.D. Roof for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 45Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
99.3%
Nathan Snyder punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.6%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 19Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
99.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete, broken up by Shannon HallSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
99.6%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for no gain to the Ind 19Similar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
99.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the BalSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:260% → 3%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
99.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Hassan Littles for 7 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.5%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+10
99.5%
Riley Neal run for 10 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
99.5%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
97.1%
James Gilbert run for 27 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:0298% → 98%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
98.1%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ind 19Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+7
98.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 7 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+5
98.1%
Penix, Michael pass incomplete to Hale, Donavan (UZODINMA, A.), PENALTY BALL offside (HALL, Shannon) 5 yards to the IND31, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
98.1%
Reese Taylor run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 25Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+2
98.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Mike Majette for 2 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+12
98.3%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 12 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
98.6%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-2
98.5%
Riley Neal sacked by Reakwon Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-8
98.6%
Riley Neal sacked by Jonathan Crawford for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 13Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 15
OWN 13
-5
98.6%
BALL ST Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 8Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 20
OWN 8
+17
98.7%
Nathan Snyder punt for 37 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 17 yds to the BalSt 25 INDIANA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the BalSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:3999% → 100%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
98.9%
Stevie Scott run for 9 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+18
98.9%
Stevie Scott run for 18 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Stevie Scott run for 11 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Markice Hurt Jr. run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Hassan LittlesSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 35 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for no gain to the Ind 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 9 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
99.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 5 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+18
99.9%
Mike Fiacable run for 18 yds to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Craig Nelson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.9%
Craig Nelson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
99.9%
INDIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 9Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 6 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.9%
Mike Fiacable run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24INT
9 plays · 63 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
100.0%
Markice Hurt Jr. run for 6 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+2
100.0%
Markice Hurt Jr. run for 2 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+13
100.0%
Markice Hurt Jr. run for 13 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Markice Hurt Jr. run for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Markice Hurt Jr.Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Malik Dunner run for 7 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
100.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Trevor Hohlt for 22 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
100.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Keyan Williams for 6 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Isaac James return for no gain to the Ind 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:22
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)
+7.6
PUNT · Q2 12:26
Nathan Snyder punt for 39 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 86 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)
+4.7
TD · Q3 8:52
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 18 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com