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RUTG

Rutgers 10 at Michigan State 14

MSU
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:32 · Connor Heyward run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+43.8Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 7:52: Justin Davidovicz 34 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +17.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:39: Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Trevor Morris — MSU win probability +14.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 3:57: Cody White run for 22 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +41.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:49: Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down — RUTG win probability +10.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:32: Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 6 — MSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:30RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:32MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:09MSU 4th & 3 at RUTG 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:02RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:32RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:04RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:35MSU 4th & 5 at RUTG 12, tied
    Close callWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.6%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:52RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:16MSU 4th & 11 at RUTG 35, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:05RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:59MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00RUTG 4th & 15 at MSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:31MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−8.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:52RUTG 4th & 1 at MSU 16, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%−7.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−27.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:52MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:49RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−4.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:49RUTG 4th & 6 at MSU 21, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.1 ptsWent for it · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%−5.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−14.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:15RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:04MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:57MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.2%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
95.2%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Willington Previlon for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
95.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+5
95.2%
William Przystup punt for 41 yds , Avery Young returns for 5 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
94.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
94.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
94.9%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
94.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
94.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+12
94.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 12 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
94.5%
Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
94.5%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
94.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-2
94.4%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:197% → 8%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
93.5%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
93.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 6 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-5
93.5%
RUTGERS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+9
93.6%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 9 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
93.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+27
91.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 27 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
92.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
92.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
92.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
92.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
92.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
92.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
92.3%
William Przystup punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
90.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+7
90.5%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.5%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
90.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 4 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
90.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Shameen Jones, broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
90.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 63 yds, downed at the MchSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 0:5789% → 89%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
89.4%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
89.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+5
89.2%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Stewart, D. (Wharton, Isaiah), PENALTY RU offside defense 5 yards to the MSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+1
89.2%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
88.9%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+6
88.9%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
89.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
88.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 7 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+6
89.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Laress Nelson for 6 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
89.1%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
88.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
88.6%
William Przystup punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
85.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-1
85.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
85.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
86.4%
Adam Korsak punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:0986% → 89%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
85.7%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
85.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+7
85.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 7 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
85.8%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+15
86.1%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Chambers, Cam, PENALTY RU pass interference 15 yards to the MSU49, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
86.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the MICHIGANST 46 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
87.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+18
86.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 18 yds to the Rutgr 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
89.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Sokol for 18 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
86.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
86.8%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
86.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 7 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-1
85.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
85.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Shameen Jones, broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
86.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 47 yds, downed at the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 2:4987% → 85%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
86.5%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+7
86.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 7 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
86.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
86.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+15
86.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 15 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
86.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+10
87.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
86.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
86.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by Avery YoungSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
85.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
85.1%
William Przystup punt for 35 yds , Saquan Hampton returns for no gain to the Rutgr 13 Saquan Hampton fumbled, recovered by MchSt Xavier HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12INT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:1885% → 85%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 0
-15
85.3%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Stewart, D., PENALTY RU pass interference 11 yards to the RU2, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY, PENALTY MSU unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the RU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
87.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 6 yds to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 4
OPP 11
-1
86.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
86.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+31
85.2%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Trevor Morris return for 31 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
82.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
82.0%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
81.3%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
81.7%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
81.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+1
82.2%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-5
82.8%
RUTGERS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+5
82.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 5 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+57
83.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MICHIGANST 19 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (9 Yards) to the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
81.1%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+5
81.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+3
80.2%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
81.2%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+10
81.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+13
81.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cam Chambers for 13 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
83.2%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
82.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Saquan Hampton return for no gain to the Rutgr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
75.1%
Isaih Pacheco pass intercepted Josiah Scott return for 12 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 78%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
81.7%
Lombardi, Rocky pass complete to Heyward, Connor for 8 yards to the RU26 (Morris, Trevor), PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the RU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 20
OPP 44
-3
79.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 23
OPP 47
0
79.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Avery YoungSimilar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 23
OPP 47
+12
78.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 12 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+29
77.7%
William Przystup punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 12 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding (6 Yards) to the Rutgr 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
73.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 7Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 7
-1
74.1%
Giovanni Rescigno run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 6Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+8
75.2%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+7
75.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 34 , Brandon Sowards returns for 7 yds to the MchSt 21 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
74.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
74.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
75.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
73.8%
William Przystup punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:2730% → 33%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
69.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+27
68.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 34 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
65.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
65.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Bo Melton, broken up by Andrew DowellSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+13
65.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 13 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
63.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 3 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
63.2%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
64.9%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
70.4%
Adam Korsak punt for 32 yds, downed at the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-14
66.9%
RUTGERS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-14 Yards) to the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
68.6%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-7
68.8%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Elorm Lumor and Jon Bateky for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 14
OWN 4
0
66.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 14
OWN 4
+14
65.6%
William Przystup punt for 35 yds , Avery Young returns for 14 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5744% → 59%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
56.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
56.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
58.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+34
40.8%
Justin Davidovicz 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.4%
Connor Heyward run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
50.9%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cam Chambers, broken up by Saquan HamptonSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
50.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 6 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
52.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
54.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by Julius TurnerSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
54.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by Avery YoungSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
50.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
48.4%
William Przystup punt for 51 yds, downed at the Rutgr 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 3:0357% → 65%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
43.4%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+1
33.7%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 6Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
35.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the Rutgr 6Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+14
35.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 43 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 14 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:4249% → 90%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
49.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Trevor MorrisSimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
48.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+13
44.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
90.3%
Cody White run for 22 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26INT
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:0023% → 25%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
77.3%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
50
+25
73.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 25 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
69.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+5
70.4%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 5 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
71.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Travis VokolekSimilar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 6
OPP 21
0
75.4%
Giovanni Rescigno pass intercepted Josiah Scott return for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0690% → 92%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
90.2%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+26
92.6%
Connor Heyward run for 26 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
93.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-2
92.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:57
Cody White run for 22 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+41.9
FG · Q4 7:52
Justin Davidovicz 34 yd FG GOOD
-17.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:32
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 6
+14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com