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PSU

Penn State 20 at Rutgers 7

RUTG
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Adam Korsak punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 4Pregame prior−46.1Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:04: Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:16: Ricky Slade run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 39 — PSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:06: Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:23: Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +8.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:23: Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 5 yds to the PnSt 30 — PSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 8 of 9PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:02PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:13RUTG 4th & 20 at RUTG 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:39PSU 4th & 4 at RUTG 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:33RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:27PSU 4th & 4 at RUTG 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00RUTG 4th & 2 at PSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:35PSU 4th & 7 at RUTG 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:04PSU 4th & 10 at RUTG 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:13RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:55PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 33, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:04RUTG 4th & 2 at PSU 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:06RUTG 4th & 1 at PSU 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−1.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:23PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:35RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:17RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 0 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:04PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 13:06PSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:23RUTG Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
3.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-1
3.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
3.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+6
3.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 6 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
4.4%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
4.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
4.4%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
4.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for no gain to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
4.6%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Shareef Miller for a loss of 10 yards to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 20
OWN 10
0
4.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
4.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
5.0%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
5.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 2 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
5.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
5.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
5.4%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Robert Windsor for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+1
5.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+12
5.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 12 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
5.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds , KJ Hamler returns for no gain to the PnSt 25 KJ Hamler fumbled, recovered by PnSt KJ Hamler , return for no gain to the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 5:0694% → 93%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
6.0%
Miles Sanders run for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
5.9%
Miles Sanders run for 8 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
5.9%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
5.9%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+13
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 13 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
5.8%
Miles Sanders run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+5
5.8%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
5.7%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+15
5.7%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Sullivan-Brown, PENALTY RU pass interference (Young, Avery) 15 yards to the RU9, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
5.7%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+9
5.9%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q1 2:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
7.3%
Jake Pinegar 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 34 yds · 2:277% → 9%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
7.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
7.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-3
7.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 37 RUTGERS Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+4
7.3%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Micah Parsons for a loss of 11 yards to the Rutgr 39 Artur Sitkowski fumbled, , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shareef Miller) to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
8.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
8.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
8.8%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
9.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
9.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+4
8.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
8.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Raheem Blackshear, broken up by Koa FarmerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
9.3%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
9.2%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 1
50
+3
9.2%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
9.1%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
9.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
9.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
9.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
10.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+3
10.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
10.6%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
10.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted John Reid return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:3390% → 89%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
50
0
10.3%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
50
+9
10.4%
Justin Shorter run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
10.3%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
10.3%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
10.3%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
10.8%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
11.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
11.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+8
11.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
12.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
11.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-14
12.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 33 RUTGERS Penalty, illegal use of hands (-15 Yards) to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 24
OWN 18
+2
11.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Garrett Taylor return for 2 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:5389% → 92%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
11.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+23
11.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 23 yds to the Rutgr 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
11.4%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 6Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
8.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:459% → 10%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
9.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
9.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-1
9.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
9.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 79 yds · 1:0590% → 94%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
9.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 26 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
9.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
8.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+35
9.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 35 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
8.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat Freiermuth, broken up by Kiy HesterSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
8.4%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Hamler, KJ (Hayes, Damon), PENALTY RU pass interference (Hayes, Damon) 12 yards to the RU2, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.3%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
6.0%
Jake Pinegar 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
7.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+20
7.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 20 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
7.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+5
8.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
8.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
8.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 51 yds, downed at the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16DOWNS
16 plays · 82 yds · 7:059% → 11%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
9.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+2
8.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+11
8.6%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
9.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+2
9.5%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
9.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
9.6%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
50
+4
9.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
9.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+31
9.7%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 18 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jan Johnson) to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
10.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for 10 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
10.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the PnSt 2Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
10.3%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
9.8%
Jonathan Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 2Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
11.2%
Trey Sneed pass incomplete to Giovanni RescignoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
8.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 13 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
7.9%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
7.9%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+8
8.0%
Miles Sanders run for 8 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
7.8%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Isaiah Wharton return for no gain to the Rutgr 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
9.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+17
10.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Bo Melton for 17 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
10.6%
Giovanni Rescigno run for no gain to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-10
10.3%
Rescigno, G. rush for 9 yards to the PSU47, out-of-bounds (Taylor, Garrett), PENALTY RU holding (Cole, Tariq) 10 yards to the RU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+24
9.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 9 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, personal foul (Robert Windsor) to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
11.2%
Rescigno, G. rush for 5 yards to the PSU37 (Johnson, Jan), PENALTY RU holding (Maietti, M.) 10 yards to the RU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 20
OWN 48
-2
10.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 46 Isaih Pacheco fumbled, forced by Robert Windsor, recovered by PnSt Daniel JosephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:1093% → 99%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
6.7%
Ricky Slade run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
6.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 1 yd to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+5
6.8%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
6.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat Freiermuth, broken up by Damon HayesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
6.7%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+7
6.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 7 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
6.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
1.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:432% → 11%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
2.0%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+24
2.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 24 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
2.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
2.2%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+11
2.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Shameen Jones for 11 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+23
2.4%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 23 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
2.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
2.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
5.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
5.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
5.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
7.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
8.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
7.9%
Giovanni Rescigno sacked by Antonio Shelton for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
7.3%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+15
7.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 42 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 15 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23FUMBLE
15 plays · 40 yds · 3:3096% → 98%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
4.3%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
4.3%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
4.4%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
3.7%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
3.6%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
3.4%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
3.3%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+4
3.4%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+9
2.5%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
2.4%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+3
2.4%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+1
2.4%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 17 Miles Sanders fumbled, forced by Trevor Morris, recovered by Rutgr Saquan HamptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
1.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
1.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
1.5%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
1.5%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 14
OPP 21
-3
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:23
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q4 13:06
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-5.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:23
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 5 yds to the PnSt 30
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com