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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreMICH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:45 · Adam Korsak punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:26: Isaih Pacheco run for 80 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +1.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:33: Karan Higdon run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:07: Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 36 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:12: Shea Patterson pass complete to Oliver Martin for 16 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 10:57: Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 21 — RUTG win probability +0.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:51RUTG 4th & 8 at MICH 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 6:40MICH 4th & 1 at RUTG 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%71% to convertField goal96.5%−0.179% to makePunt96.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 5:13RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q2 10:42MICH 4th & 1 at RUTG 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.3%71% to convertField goal93.0%−0.375% to makePunt92.2%−1.1average punt
- Q2 7:15RUTG 4th & 18 at RUTG 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q2 2:32RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.2%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:45MICH 4th & 8 at RUTG 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.1%average punt
- Q3 7:57RUTG 4th & 11 at MICH 44, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.227% to convertField goal2.7%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q3 5:07MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 35, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%average punt
- Q4 11:37RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 9:45RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 25, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 7:34MICH 4th & 18 at MICH 34, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:40RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 24, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 0:45MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:26RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.1%97% to makeGo for two5.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:33MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:07MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:12MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:08MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:26MICH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 1:541% → 2%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 3 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2DOWNS12 plays · 62 yds · 6:0498% → 98%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
1.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 9 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+11
2.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Chris Evans for 11 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+5
2.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 5 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:203% → 3%
Q1 5:13
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
2.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD8 plays · 59 yds · 4:0097% → 97%
RUTGDrive 5TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD14 plays · 65 yds · 5:3596% → 96%
Q2 14:50
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
3.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 7 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
4.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Oliver Martin for 7 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
4.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 12 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
4.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 9 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
5.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Oliver Martin for 15 yds to the Rutgr 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 2:074% → 4%
Q2 7:54
3RD & 15
OWN 22
-3
4.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD6 plays · 53 yds · 1:5096% → 97%
Q2 6:14
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+10
4.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 10 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
4.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 3 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+36
3.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 36 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9DOWNS7 plays · 30 yds · 2:244% → 4%
Q2 2:38
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
4.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaih Pacheco, broken up by Devin BushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3996% → 96%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
50
0
3.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-Jones, broken up by Saquan HamptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD9 plays · 73 yds · 3:2996% → 98%
Q3 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+21
4.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 21 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+32
4.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 32 yds to the Rutgr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
1.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Oliver Martin for 16 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 3:003% → 3%
Q3 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+16
2.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 16 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Raheem Blackshear, broken up by Devin BushSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+15
2.6%
Sitkowski, Artur pass incomplete to Melton, Bo, PENALTY MICHIGAN roughing passer (Bush, Devin) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN RUTGERS.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4398% → 99%
Q3 6:41
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+26
1.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 26 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+1
1.3%
Will Hart punt for 44 yds , Avery Young returns for 1 yd to the Rutgr 36 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Rutgr 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15FUMBLE7 plays · 30 yds · 2:212% → 2%
MICHDrive 16TD5 plays · 42 yds · 2:2599% → 100%
Q3 0:08
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
0.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 10 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 3:180% → 0%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
0.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 5 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+1
0.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 1 yd to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+14
0.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 14 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
0.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 3 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD1 play · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Everett Wormley, broken up by Josh RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 21INT13 plays · 38 yds · 5:440% → 0%
Q4 1:38
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
0.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Ambry Thomas return for no gain to the Mich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22Uncategorized3 plays · 11 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:12
Shea Patterson pass complete to Oliver Martin for 16 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q2 9:33
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
-1.1
TD · Q2 5:07
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 36 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
-1.1