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NU

Northwestern 18 at Rutgers 15

RUTG
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDSAFETYFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Adam Korsak punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior−40.7Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:09: Isaih Pacheco run for 44 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +8.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 9:58: Justin Davidovicz 26 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +11.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:13: Drew Luckenbaugh 23 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +3.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:32: Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 44 — RUTG win probability +13.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:12: Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds for a TD (Clayton Thorson pass to Flynn Nagel for Two-Point Conversion) — NU win probability +29.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 11 of 12NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51NU 4th & 6 at NU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:07RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 8 at RUTG 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:03RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:00NU 4th & 9 at NU 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:19RUTG 4th & 8 at NU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:14NU 4th & 6 at NU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:04NU 4th & 3 at NU 24, down 3
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:37RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00RUTG 4th & 7 at NU 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−6.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:58RUTG 4th & 5 at NU 8, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−11.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:13NU 4th & 2 at RUTG 4, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%−2.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−17.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:13RUTG 4th & 15 at RUTG 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−5.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:17NU 4th & 4 at RUTG 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−3.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:32RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 46, up 5
    Close callPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00NU 4th & 4 at NU 29, down 5
    Close callPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:41RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 31, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−3.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:48NU 4th & 1 at NU 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.5%−5.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:48NU 4th & 4 at RUTG 15, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−16.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:12RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:05NU 4th & 20 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:46NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:09RUTG Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:12NU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    60.8%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
9.3%
Trey Sneed run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
9.3%
Trey Sneed run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+1
9.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 1 yd to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
9.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:1790% → 90%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
10.0%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+9
10.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
10.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 7 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+5
10.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
10.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 10 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding (Bennett Skowronek) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 14
OPP 20
+6
10.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 6 yds to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+5
10.0%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Jefferson, JJ, PENALTY RU pass interference (Young, Avery) 5 yards to the RU9, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
10.0%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 3Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Luckenbaugh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 9 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
10.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
10.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
10.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
10.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+3
10.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 3 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
10.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 44 yds, downed at the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
11.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 1 yd to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
11.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+3
11.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 3 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
11.6%
Jake Collins punt for 70 yds, downed at the Rutgr 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
12.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 5 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+5
12.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
12.0%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+5
11.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, offside defense (Jordan Thompson) to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
11.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+6
11.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 6 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
11.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1588% → 87%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
12.3%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
12.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+11
12.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 11 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
12.1%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+1
12.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
12.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
12.8%
Jake Collins punt for 31 yds, downed at the Rutgr 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
13.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
13.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
13.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Shameen Jones RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+82
12.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 79 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RUTGERS 5 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, illegal block (Flynn Nagel) to the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
13.8%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 3Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
13.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Nwest 3Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
14.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
14.3%
Jake Collins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9FG
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2015% → 18%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
15.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+4
14.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+12
15.1%
Artur Sitkowski run for 12 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
15.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
15.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
15.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Shameen Jones, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
18.0%
Justin Davidovicz 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete, broken up by Julius TurnerSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
17.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
16.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
16.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
17.2%
Jake Collins punt for 25 yds, downed at the Rutgr 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:2118% → 28%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
17.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
17.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+11
17.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 11 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
19.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Trey Sneed for 5 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
19.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
27.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 44 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
25.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-7
25.5%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Elorm Lumor for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 10Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+14
26.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
26.5%
Jake Collins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
27.2%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Chris Bergin for a loss of 9 yards to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 19
OWN 25
+7
26.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 7 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
25.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete, broken up by Samdup MillerSimilar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
25.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14SF
3 plays · -22 yds · 0:2873% → 69%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
27.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett Skowronek, broken up by Damon HayesSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-11
27.7%
Thorson, C. pass complete to Nagel, Flynn for 9 yards to the NU31, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NU pass interference (Green, Cameron) 11 yards to the NU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 21
OWN 11
-11
31.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Willington Previlon for a loss of 11 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:3135% → 29%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
35.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Trey Sneed for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
35.5%
Trey Sneed run for 7 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
36.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Trey Sneed for 14 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
36.5%
Trey Sneed run for 2 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
36.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+1
35.3%
Trey Sneed run for 1 yd to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
28.7%
Justin Davidovicz 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:3167% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
32.9%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Green, Cameron, PENALTY RU pass interference (Young, Avery) 10 yards to the NU35, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
32.3%
Chad Hanaoka run for 7 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
30.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q3 14:29
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
30.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 4 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
30.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
31.2%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Trevor Morris and Willington Previlon for 0 yards to the Nwest 47 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Trevor Morris , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:5640% → 51%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
40.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
40.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+18
39.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 3 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, roughing passer (Samdup Miller) to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
40.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 6 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+5
40.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
40.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
40.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Shameen Jones, broken up by Paddy FisherSimilar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+2
39.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 2 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
50.7%
Justin Davidovicz 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:4552% → 60%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
48.5%
Chad Hanaoka run for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
46.0%
Chad Hanaoka run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
46.9%
Chad Hanaoka run for 5 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
45.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+14
46.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
44.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
42.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 23 yds to the Rutgr 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
42.0%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 7Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
42.0%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+1
44.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+23
40.5%
Drew Luckenbaugh 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0049% → 46%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
48.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
47.8%
Trey Sneed run for no gain to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
46.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete, broken up by Trent GoensSimilar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
45.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 51 yds, downed at the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0056% → 58%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
44.2%
Chad Hanaoka run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
44.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 8
OPP 0
+8
39.3%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
39.9%
JJ Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
42.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+9
44.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for 9 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
42.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete, broken up by Kevin WilkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
55.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
55.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 2 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
54.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Travis Vokolek RUTGERS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
52.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:5950% → 47%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
49.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-4
48.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+8
53.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 8 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
50.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
51.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, broken up by Avery YoungSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+6
52.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
53.1%
Jake Collins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 55%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
57.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
57.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete, broken up by Trent GoensSimilar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
55.4%
Adam Korsak punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:3649% → 80%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
51.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-1
48.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+6
51.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 6 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+4
50.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
50
0
47.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Saquan HamptonSimilar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
50
+29
48.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 29 yds to the Rutgr 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
44.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to JJ Jefferson, broken up by Saquan HamptonSimilar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
45.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+1
46.5%
Chad Hanaoka run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+10
49.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 10 yds to the Rutgr 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds for a TD (Clayton Thorson pass to Flynn Nagel for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 27%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
30.2%
RUTGERS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
30.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 8 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
28.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
27.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
17 plays · 25 yds · 6:2576% → 94%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
23.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
23.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
22.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
21.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-5
21.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
22.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
21.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+11
14.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
14.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-4
8.6%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 12
OPP 42
-8
8.1%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 20
50
0
6.4%
Jake Collins punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:12
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds for a TD (Clayton Thorson pass to Flynn Nagel for Two-Point Conversion)
-29.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:32
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 44
+13.3
FG · Q3 9:58
Justin Davidovicz 26 yd FG GOOD
+11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com