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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:37 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:56: Ty Johnson run for 65 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +0.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:19: Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 23 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +2.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:13: Kasim Hill pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 20 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:51: Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Ty Johnson — MD win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:00: Joseph Petrino 25 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 8RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 15:00MD 4th & 3 at RUTG 48, tiedClose callPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:53RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 8, tiedClose callPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.7%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:30MD 4th & 8 at RUTG 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.9%−<0.134% to convertField goal91.8%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call91.9%average punt
- Q1 7:29RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 38, tiedClose callPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:00MD 4th & 9 at RUTG 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snapGo for it90.7%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call90.9%72% to makePunt89.8%−1.1average punt
- Q2 8:47RUTG 4th & 23 at RUTG 42, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it4.9%−1.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q2 4:13RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 2:51MD 4th & 7 at MD 40, up 24Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.7%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 14:50RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 38, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q3 9:00MD 4th & 4 at RUTG 8, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.6%42% to convertField goalTheir call97.5%−0.190% to makePunt96.0%−1.6average punt
- Q3 4:51MD 4th & 15 at MD 40, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 3:44RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 49, down 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:47MD 4th & 2 at MD 46, up 34Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:41RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 34, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:49MD 4th & 1 at MD 32, up 34Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 4RUTG made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 0:56MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:19MD Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:13MD Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:47MD Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:43RUTG Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMDDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
50
+2
94.2%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 2 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 10:53
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
93.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 52 yds , Taivon Jacobs returns for no gain to the Mary 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+10
92.9%
Jacobs, Taivon rush for no gain to the UMD35 (Hayes, Damon;Tverdov, Mike), PENALTY RU holding (Previlon, W.) 10 yards to the UMD45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 8
OPP 44
+2
92.9%
Wade Lees punt for 40 yds , Avery Young returns for 2 yds to the Rutgr 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
92.3%
Sitkowski, A. pass complete to Vokolek, Travis for 13 yards to the RU19, PENALTY RU ineligible downfield on pass 3 yards to the RU3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
92.2%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete to Thomas, Matt (Mosley, Jordan), PENALTY UMD roughing passer (Tanyi, Mbi) 15 yards to the RU32, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
92.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Bo Melton, broken up by Tino EllisSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+4
92.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 4 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
92.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 48 yds , Taivon Jacobs returns for no gain to the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD5 plays · 86 yds · 2:4491% → 92%
MDDrive 6FG5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5692% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7INT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
92.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Darnell Savage Jr. return for no gain to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8TD7 plays · 35 yds · 3:0192% → 95%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
92.3%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Anthony McFarland for 2 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
92.3%
Fleet-Davis, T. rush for 5 yards to the RU9, out-of-bounds (Fogg, Tyshon), PENALTY UMD holding (Edwards, Avery) 10 yards to the RU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 19
OPP 23
0
92.2%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Olakunle FatukasiSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 19
OPP 23
+23
95.0%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 23 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT12 plays · 17 yds · 2:326% → 5%
Q2 11:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
94.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 4 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
94.5%
Sitkowski, A. pass complete to Blackshear, R. for loss of 1 yard to the RU27 (Savage, Darnell;Cowart, Byron), PENALTY UMD roughing passer (Tanyi, Mbi) 15 yards to the RU43, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 15
50
-7
94.5%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Byron Cowart for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 23
OWN 42
+9
94.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 37 yds , Taivon Jacobs returns for 9 yds to the Mary 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD6 plays · 70 yds · 3:2095% → 98%
RUTGDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 4:13
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 40 yds , Taivon Jacobs returns for no gain to the Mary 25 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
RUTGDrive 13INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Byron Cowart return for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
RUTGDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17FG9 plays · 73 yds · 4:5598% → 100%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+31
97.6%
Anthony McFarland run for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+44
99.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Tino Ellis return for 44 yds to the Rutgr 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19TD3 plays · 11 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 20INT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:40
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+15
99.6%
Sitkowski, A. sacked for loss of 11 yards to the RU18 (Cowart, Byron), PENALTY UMD personal foul (Cowart, Byron) 15 yards to the RU44, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+2
99.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Darnell Savage Jr. return for 2 yds to the Mary 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q3 4:51
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-5
99.8%
Pigrome, T. pass complete to Jacobs, Taivon for 16 yards to the RU40 (Hampton, Saquan), PENALTY UMD illegal shift 5 yards to the UMD39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Wade Lees punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Hunter Hayek at the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22INT10 plays · 49 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass intercepted Tre Watson return for no gain to the Mary 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:41
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-2
99.9%
Giovanni Rescigno run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 35 Giovanni Rescigno fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Giovanni RescignoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26TD14 plays · 62 yds · 5:030% → 0%
Q4 5:46
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+10
100.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for 10 yds to the Mary 43 Isaih Pacheco fumbled, forced by Breyon Gaddy, recovered by Rutgr Everett Wormley for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27Uncategorized2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:19
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 23 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q2 4:13
Kasim Hill pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 20 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+2.5
FG · Q3 9:00
Joseph Petrino 25 yd FG GOOD
+1.9