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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:03 · Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:56: Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +3.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:21: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 2 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +4.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:40: Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +13.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- FG · Q4 3:52: Justin Davidovicz 52 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +10.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:40: Timeout INDIANA, clock 01:40 — IU win probability +8.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 6 of 7IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 7:27RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it21.3%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.4%average punt
- Q2 14:56IU 4th & 1 at RUTG 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.4%59% to convertField goal74.5%−0.894% to makePunt72.3%−3.1average punt
- Q2 14:56RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it20.5%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.0%average punt
- Q2 0:20IU 4th & 5 at RUTG 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snapGo for it84.9%−0.941% to convertField goalTheir call85.8%64% to makePunt83.4%−2.4average punt
- Q3 15:00IU 4th & 1 at IU 34, up 17Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snapGo for it88.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.2%−0.8average punt
- Q3 13:22RUTG 4th & 19 at midfield, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it12.6%−0.911% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%average punt
- Q3 9:06IU 4th & 6 at RUTG 48, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snapGo for it89.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.7%average punt
- Q3 4:03RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.0%−1.7average punt
- Q3 4:03RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 46, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.3%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q4 7:52IU 4th & 9 at RUTG 18, up 10Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 87.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.7%−1.130% to convertField goal86.8%79% to makePunt79.4%−7.4average punt
- Q4 7:47RUTG 4th & 13 at IU 41, down 10Close callWent for it · 11.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.8%−0.621% to convertField goal12.4%32% to makePunt12.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:52RUTG 4th & 16 at IU 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.816% to convertField goalTheir call10.6%47% to makePunt9.4%−1.2average punt
- Q4 3:18IU 4th & 1 at IU 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt87.7%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:46RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.7%97% to makeGo for two20.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:33IU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.2%97% to makeGo for two78.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.0%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:21IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.6%97% to makeGo for two81.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:40RUTG Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.6%97% to makeGo for two13.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1417% → 20%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.8%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete to Blackshear, R., QB hurry by Willis, Dameon, PENALTY IND personal foul (Willis, Dameon) 15 yards to the RU40, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+8
16.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 8 yds to the Ind 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+11
20.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 11 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:1380% → 80%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
19.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 23 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+3
19.5%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Harris, J-Shun, PENALTY RU pass interference (Hayes, Damon) 3 yards to the RU44, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
19.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 6 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+7
19.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 7 yds to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+10
19.5%
Ramsey, Peyton sacked for loss of 2 yards to the RU33 (Tverdov, Mike), PENALTY RU holding (Morris, Trevor) 10 yards to the RU21, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
19.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 5 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
IUDrive 4TD17 plays · 88 yds · 6:0979% → 81%
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
21.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for no gain to the Ind 12Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+10
21.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 10 yds to the Ind 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
20.9%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Jon Bateky for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 15Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+11
20.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 11 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+25
20.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 25 yds to the Rutgr 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
19.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Nick Westbrook, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
22.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for 5 yds to the Rutgr 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
IUDrive 6TD10 plays · 68 yds · 4:1280% → 86%
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+14
20.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 14 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+25
19.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 25 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+21
19.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 21 yds to the Rutgr 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
18.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 4 yds to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
18.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for no gain to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 2 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7INT12 plays · 56 yds · 4:4416% → 13%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
15.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 11 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+17
16.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 17 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
16.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Max Anthony for 9 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
16.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 6 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+10
16.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 10 yds to the Ind 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
16.9%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Allen Stallings IV for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 14Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
13.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Shameen Jones, broken up by Raheem LayneSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
13.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted, touchback. Jamar Johnson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8FG13 plays · 54 yds · 3:5585% → 88%
Q2 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
14.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 8 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
14.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 9 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
14.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 10 yds to the RUTGERS 48 INDIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (Donavan Hale) to the Ind 42Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-10
14.5%
Scott, Stevie rush for 3 yards to the IND45 (Hester, Kiy), PENALTY IND holding (Knight, Brandon) 10 yards to the IND32, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
12.3%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q3 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
13.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 8 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-15
13.4%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete, PENALTY RU illegal use of hands (Cole, Tariq) 15 yards to the RU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 24
OWN 45
+5
12.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jonathan Hilliman for 5 yds to the 50 yard line RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 19
50
0
12.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 38 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+22
10.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 22 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+12
10.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 12 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
9.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 1:0710% → 11%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
10.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
10.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Jerome Washington, broken up by Marcelino BallSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+13
10.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jonathan Hilliman for 13 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
10.4%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete to Melton, Bo, PENALTY IND roughing passer (Stallings, A.) 15 yards to the RU46, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
10.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14FUMBLE12 plays · 46 yds · 2:3494% → 95%
Q3 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
6.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 5 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+11
6.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 11 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
6.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 6 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
4.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for 5 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
4.8%
Stevie Scott run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 45 Stevie Scott fumbled, forced by Tyreek Maddox-Williams, recovered by Rutgr Deonte Roberts , return for no gain to the Rutgr 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:186% → 20%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
6.2%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete to Blackshear, R., PENALTY IND holding (Jones, Reakwon) 10 yards to the IND45, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+39
6.5%
Isaih Pacheco pass complete to Jerome Washington for 39 yds to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.4%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16INT10 plays · 42 yds · 2:4887% → 88%
Q4 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+15
13.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 15 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
13.0%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 19 yds to the Rutgr 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
13.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Donavan Hale, broken up by Avery YoungSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 9
OPP 18
0
11.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass intercepted, touchback. Damon Hayes return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17FG17 plays · 46 yds · 3:5512% → 18%
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
11.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for no gain to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
10.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 13 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
12.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 2 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
11.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-3
13.8%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Jaylin Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 41Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
12.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Jerome Washington, broken up by Reakwon JonesSimilar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 13
OPP 41
+13
11.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 13 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 1
OPP 19
-15
13.2%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete to Lewis, Eddie, PENALTY RU pass interference (Wormley, E.) 15 yards to the IND34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 16
OPP 34
0
8.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Eddie Lewis, broken up by Raheem LayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18END OF GAME10 plays · 27 yds · 2:1288% → 97%
Q4 3:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+25
11.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 25 yds to the RUTGERS 41 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:40
Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)
+13.1
FG · Q4 3:52
Justin Davidovicz 52 yd FG GOOD
+10.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:40
Timeout INDIANA, clock 01:40
-8.7