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BUF

Buffalo 42 at Rutgers 13

RUTG
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:50 · Evan Finegan punt for 43 yds , Avery Young returns for 22 yds to the Rutgr 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−44.5Score differential−24.8Pregame prior−4.8Garbage-time factor−11.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 10:24: Justin Davidovicz 31 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +2.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:27: Jaret Patterson run for 42 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +4.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:58: Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +6.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:16: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 53 yds for a TD Adam Mitcheson kickoff for 3 yds for a touchback Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26 (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +7.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:54: Raheem Blackshear run for 14 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +2.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 14 of 16BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:24RUTG 4th & 6 at BUF 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:13RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:17RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:13RUTG 4th & 9 at BUF 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:58RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:16RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 28, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:34BUF 4th & 2 at RUTG 12, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−1.0
    86% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−6.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:14RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 12, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:16RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 30, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 45, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00RUTG 4th & 12 at BUF 42, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:10BUF 4th & 3 at RUTG 41, up 29
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:42RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 9, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:50BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 49, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:16RUTG 4th & 6 at BUF 7, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -1.0%−4.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:39BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 39, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:19RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 14, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:59BUF 4th & 1 at RUTG 49, up 22
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:09RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 13, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:25RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 31, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:22BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:27BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:58BUF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:16BUF Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:31BUF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54RUTG Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:34BUF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
35.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
35.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
35.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
35.1%
Evan Finegan punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:5835% → 38%
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
35.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 6 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
35.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 8 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Daevon Robinson, broken up by Joey BanksSimilar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+22
35.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 22 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
35.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Buff 16Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
35.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+5
35.4%
Artur Sitkowski run for 5 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q1 14:22
4TH & 1
OPP 8
-5
35.4%
RUTGERS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 13Similar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
37.6%
Justin Davidovicz 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3INT
4 plays · 41 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.4%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+37
37.3%
Kevin Marks run for 37 yds to the Rutgr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
36.8%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Isaiah Wharton return for no gain to the Rutgr 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
38.0%
Artur Sitkowski run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
37.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+10
37.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 46 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 10 yds to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:2661% → 64%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
38.7%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
38.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 15 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
38.1%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+42
36.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 42 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
36.9%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
36.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Raheem Blackshear, broken up by Taylor RigginsSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+2
36.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 2 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+10
36.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 52 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 10 yds to the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:2363% → 67%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
37.2%
K.J. Osborn run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+20
37.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 20 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
36.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
36.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+14
37.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 14 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
32.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 42 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:0733% → 34%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
33.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
33.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+12
32.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jerome Washington for 12 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
33.7%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 4
50
+1
34.0%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+10
33.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 10 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
33.9%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 7 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Devon Russell) to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
34.5%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 4 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-3
34.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
33.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
34.1%
Justin Davidovicz 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:0867% → 74%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
32.6%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+59
32.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 59 yds to the Rutgr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
31.7%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
31.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 1 yd to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.6%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
27.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+6
27.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 6 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
28.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
27.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 44 yds, downed at the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:1874% → 84%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
25.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
25.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Saquan HamptonSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
25.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
24.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
24.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+53
16.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 53 yds for a TD Adam Mitcheson kickoff for 3 yds for a touchback Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26 (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
18.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
18.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Jerome WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+28
18.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 41 , K.J. Osborn returns for 28 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:2984% → 85%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
15.7%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to NUNN, Antonio (Young, Avery), PENALTY RU holding (Young, Avery) 10 yards to the RU31, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
15.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
15.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 5 yds to the Rutgr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
15.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+4
15.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+6
15.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
14.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Saquan HamptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1618% → 18%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
17.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Bo Melton, broken up by James PattersonSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
17.7%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Jerome Washington, broken up by Joey BanksSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
17.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
18.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:3684% → 86%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
50
+20
15.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 20 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
15.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (14 Yards) to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
15.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
13.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 9 yds for a TD Adam Mitcheson kickoff for 3 yds for a touchback Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26 Jonathan Hilliman run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 30 Giovanni Rescigno run for no gain to the Rutgr 30 (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:156% → 4%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
5.4%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
4.3%
Giovanni Rescigno run for no gain to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
3.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for no gain to the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
7.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+6
8.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18PUNT
17 plays · 33 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
7.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
7.2%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
7.3%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
8.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-15
7.7%
Hilliman, J. rush for no gain to the RU36 (HODGE, Khalil), PENALTY RU illegal block (Anthony, Max) 15 yards to the RU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 21
-1
7.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Jonathan Hilliman for 9 yds to the Rutgr 30 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 26
OWN 20
0
7.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Bo Melton, broken up by Brandon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 26
OWN 20
+25
7.6%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Jerome Washington for 25 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
7.6%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
8.3%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+15
8.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Bo Melton for 15 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
8.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Bo Melton, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
8.6%
Jonathan Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
8.5%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
8.4%
Adam Korsak punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:2996% → 98%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
3.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 18 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
3.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-5
3.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+15
2.3%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to JONES, Charlie, PENALTY RU pass interference (Hampton, Saquan) 15 yards to the RU48, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
2.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
2.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
2.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie Jones, broken up by Saquan HamptonSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
2.5%
Evan Finegan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
4.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-8
3.8%
Pacheco, Isaih rush for 8 yards to the RU23, out-of-bounds (WRIGHT, Kadofi), PENALTY RU illegal block (Lonsdorf, Mike) 8 yards to the RU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+2
3.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 11
OWN 9
0
3.7%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
3.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 44 yds, downed at the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
1.5%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+5
1.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
1.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+22
1.8%
Evan Finegan punt for 43 yds , Avery Young returns for 22 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:182% → 5%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
1.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Shameen Jones for 8 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+7
1.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
1.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Jerome Washington for 25 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
2.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+12
2.1%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 12 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
4.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for 14 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
2.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+5
2.2%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
2.1%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Damon Hayes return for no gain to the Rutgr 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
2.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Shameen Jones for 17 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
3.3%
Shameen Jones run for no gain to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+24
3.3%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 24 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
3.5%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
3.5%
Giovanni Rescigno run for 4 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
3.4%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 6
OPP 7
-9
3.2%
Giovanni Rescigno sacked by Chuck Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+24
1.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 24 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
1.3%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
1.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Saquan HamptonSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
1.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+3
1.1%
Evan Finegan punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 10 , Avery Young returns for 3 yds to the Rutgr 42 RUTGERS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Rutgr 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
2.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
2.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Hunter Hayek for 2 yds to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 5
OWN 15
-1
2.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+4
2.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 48 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.9%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
0.9%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
0.8%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
0.6%
Evan Finegan punt for 41 yds, downed at the Rutgr 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:381% → 1%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
1.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 5 yds to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
1.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Jerome Washington, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
1.1%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 5
OWN 13
-7
1.0%
Giovanni Rescigno sacked by Kadofi Wright and Chuck Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:3099% → 100%
Q4 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
0.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
0.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
0.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
0.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+2
0.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 13
OWN 25
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:16
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 53 yds for a TD Adam Mitcheson kickoff for 3 yds for a touchback Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26 (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-7.7
TD · Q2 10:58
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q1 2:27
Jaret Patterson run for 42 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com