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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:45 · Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 7 yds to the Kans 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:46: Miles Kendrick pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 6 yds for a TD RUTGERS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Gabriel Rui KICK) — KU win probability +3.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:10: Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted for a TD Mike Lee return for 31 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK) — KU win probability +7.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:07: Jonathan Hilliman run for 2 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +7.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:29: Khalil Herbert run for 59 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK) — KU win probability +13.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:08: Miles Kendrick run for 8 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK) — KU win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 14:14RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snapGo for it45.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
- Q1 11:22KU 4th & 7 at RUTG 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snapGo for it54.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call54.9%54% to makePunt54.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:06KU 4th & 7 at RUTG 19, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snapGo for it57.3%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call57.5%77% to makePunt56.1%−1.4average punt
- Q1 0:00KU 4th & 18 at RUTG 18, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snapGo for it60.4%−2.011% to convertField goalTheir call62.4%79% to makePunt57.4%−5.0average punt
- Q2 12:49RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snapGo for it27.3%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.0%average punt
- Q2 11:36KU 4th & 7 at KU 26, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snapGo for it74.5%−1.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.6%average punt
- Q2 10:44RUTG 4th & 7 at KU 39, down 17Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snapGo for it25.8%37% to convertField goal24.5%−1.336% to makePuntTheir call24.9%−0.9average punt
- Q2 8:18KU 4th & 5 at KU 37, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snapGo for it77.4%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.8%average punt
- Q2 2:29RUTG 4th & 17 at RUTG 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it15.1%−3.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00KU 4th & 4 at KU 31, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it82.0%−1.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.2%average punt
- Q3 12:50RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 27, down 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it17.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%−1.9average punt
- Q3 8:28KU 4th & 8 at RUTG 38, up 17Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snapGo for it90.0%35% to convertField goal89.4%−0.538% to makePuntTheir call89.5%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:38KU 4th & 5 at RUTG 16, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call96.6%81% to makePunt94.1%−2.5average punt
- Q3 3:33RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 26, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 14:51RUTG 4th & 18 at midfield, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 6:45RUTG 4th & 27 at KU 32, down 41Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.17% to convertField goal0.1%51% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:01KU 4th & 2 at RUTG 47, up 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:30KU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.4%97% to makeGo for two56.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:46KU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.6%97% to makeGo for two59.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:10KU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.0%97% to makeGo for two66.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:07RUTG Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.5%97% to makeGo for two28.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:29KU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.9%97% to makeGo for two78.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:08KU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:51KU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:28KU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4641% → 41%
Q1 14:14
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
59.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 2 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2FG6 plays · 41 yds · 1:5759% → 60%
RUTGDrive 3INT TD5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5241% → 39%
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+39
60.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted for a TD Bryce Torneden return for 39 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4FUMBLE4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
KUDrive 5MISSED FG TD4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0362% → 60%
Q1 9:06
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+64
60.1%
Gabriel Rui 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Deonte Roberts Deonte Roberts return for 64 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2060% → 65%
Q1 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
59.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
59.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 16 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+22
60.4%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 22 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
60.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
65.4%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 6 yds for a TD RUTGERS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Gabriel Rui KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 36 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
64.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jerome Washington for 19 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
64.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 39 Raheem Blackshear fumbled, forced by Kyron Johnson, recovered by Kans Willie McCalebSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8MISSED FG10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3666% → 66%
Q1 3:36
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+25
65.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 25 yds to the KANSAS 35 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+25
66.1%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 25 yds to the Rutgr 10 Pooka Williams Jr. fumbled, forced by Isaiah Wharton, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
66.2%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 3 KANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-12
66.0%
Williams, Dom rush for no gain to the RU13 (Roberts, Deonte), PENALTY KU holding (Hughes, Chris) 12 yards to the RU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+27
66.1%
Gabriel Rui 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jon Bateky Avery Young return for no gain to the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9INT TD2 plays · 2 yds · 0:5033% → 26%
RUTGDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2126% → 19%
Q2 12:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
81.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 43 yds , Steven Sims Jr. returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0478% → 84%
Q2 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-1
78.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
KUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
RUTGDrive 14TD9 plays · 86 yds · 2:5816% → 29%
Q2 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+28
83.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jerome Washington for 13 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.5%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 2 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3874% → 88%
Q2 3:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
74.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, personal foul (Trevor Morris) to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
87.3%
Sitkowski, Artur pass incomplete to Jones, Shameen, PENALTY RU holding (Seymour, Kamaal) 10 yards to the RU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-1
88.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · -16 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
KUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3716% → 14%
Q3 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+9
86.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jerome Washington for 9 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 3:5887% → 91%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
87.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 11 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
87.6%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Khalil Herbert for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-10
87.6%
Herbert, Khalil rush for 4 yards to the RU37 (Young, Avery;Maddox-Williams, T.), PENALTY KU holding (Adeniji, Hakeem) 10 yards to the KU49, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
KUDrive 22TD5 plays · 25 yds · 1:3493% → 97%
Q3 7:42
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
92.5%
Pooka Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Kerr Johnson Jr., broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23FUMBLE4 plays · 11 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the Rutgr 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Kans Joe Dineen Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24FG5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2198% → 100%
RUTGDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
99.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 52 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for 12 yds to the Kans 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 27PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Mohamed Jabbie for 14 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Bo Melton for 5 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+12
99.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Jonathan Hilliman for 12 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-10
99.8%
Rescigno, Giovanni rush for 19 yards to the KU21, PENALTY RU holding (Cole, Tariq) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 28TD6 plays · 82 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q4 12:27
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
99.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Deron Thompson for 5 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 29DOWNS16 plays · 50 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q4 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 8 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 5 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+26
99.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 26 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-10
99.9%
Hilliman, Jonathan rush for 2 yards to the KU9 (Dineen, Joe;Jones, Elijah), PENALTY RU holding (Rosa, Austin) 10 yards to the KU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 16
OPP 21
-15
99.9%
Rescigno, Giovanni pass complete to Lewis, Eddie for 10 yards to the KU11, out-of-bounds (Johnson, Kyron), PENALTY RU pass interference (Vokolek, Travis) 15 yards to the KU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 31
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass incomplete to Shameen Jones, broken up by Elijah JonesSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 27
OPP 32
+7
99.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 7 yds to the Kans 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 30END OF GAME7 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:29
Khalil Herbert run for 59 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK)
+13.7
TD · Q2 3:07
Jonathan Hilliman run for 2 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q2 14:10
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted for a TD Mike Lee return for 31 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK)
+7