2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:26 · Adam Korsak punt for 40 yds , C.J. Saunders returns for 20 yds to the Rutgr 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:57: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 38 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:22: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 16 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:28: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 9 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:05: Tate Martell pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 51 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:00: J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 5RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 12:48RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 9:58RUTG 4th & 3 at RUTG 20, down 7Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:16OSU 4th & 13 at OSU 43, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q1 5:59RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 31, down 7Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:54RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 12:26RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 8:41RUTG 4th & 3 at RUTG 32, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q2 2:04OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 28, up 35Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:02RUTG 4th & 5 at OSU 23, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%70% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:19OSU 4th & 4 at RUTG 4, up 39Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−<0.193% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:02RUTG 4th & 4 at OSU 44, down 42Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%48% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:30OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 30, up 42Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:56RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 39, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 3:20OSU 4th & 3 at RUTG 46, up 49Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%52% to convertField goal99.9%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:51RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 14, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 10:57OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:22OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:28OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:05OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:00OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:49OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:18OSU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 2 yds · 1:522% → 2%
Q1 13:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
98.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 4 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 40 yds , Demario McCall returns for no gain to the OhSt 33 Demario McCall fumbled, recovered by OhSt Demario McCallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD6 plays · 67 yds · 1:5198% → 98%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 5
OWN 38
+12
98.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+8
98.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 8 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
98.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 38 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:472% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2998% → 98%
RUTGDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:012% → 2%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
98.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 7 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+4
97.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 4 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
97.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 7 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+19
97.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 34 yds for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD7 plays · 50 yds · 2:2198% → 98%
RUTGDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:222% → 2%
Q1 2:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 52 yds , Demario McCall returns for 6 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD13 plays · 71 yds · 4:2198% → 99%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
98.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
98.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 7 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
97.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 5 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
97.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 1 yd to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q2 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 9 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:492% → 1%
Q2 12:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 40 yds , C.J. Saunders returns for 20 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD4 plays · 45 yds · 1:1399% → 99%
RUTGDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:091% → 1%
Q2 9:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 4 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD12 plays · 76 yds · 3:2499% → 100%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, Illegal Helmet Contact (15 Yards) to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
50
+11
99.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 11 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
99.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 16 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+7
99.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 7 yds to the Rutgr 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 5 yds to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for no gain to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.5%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (2 Yards) to the Rutgr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13INT7 plays · 26 yds · 1:180% → 0%
OSUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 5 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 6 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Drue Chrisman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Hunter Hayek at the Rutgr 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15END OF HALF5 plays · -2 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
99.8%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 17 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chase Young) to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-10
99.8%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Nick Bosa for a loss of 10 yards to the Rutgr 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD6 plays · 84 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
99.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 15 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+22
99.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 7 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (Deonte Roberts) to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 44 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17FG12 plays · 52 yds · 4:390% → 0%
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
99.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Jonathan Hilliman for 7 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Hunter Hayek for 5 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+15
99.8%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Bo Melton for no gain to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
99.8%
Giovanni Rescigno sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 10 yards to the OhSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18FG13 plays · 58 yds · 4:11100% → 100%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.8%
Tate Martell pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 8 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
50
+15
99.9%
Tate Martell pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 15 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+19
99.9%
Tate Martell pass complete to C.J. Saunders for 19 yds to the Rutgr 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
99.9%
Tate Martell pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 8 yds to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.9%
Tate Martell pass complete to Demario McCall for 2 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Shameen Jones for 2 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
99.9%
Tate Martell pass complete to C.J. Saunders for 8 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 2
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
Tate Martell sacked by Elorm Lumor for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Tate Martell pass complete to Demario McCall for 1 yd to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Drue Chrisman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Hunter Hayek at the Rutgr 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21INT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
100.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass intercepted Shaun Wade return for no gain to the OhSt 42 OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chase Young) to the OhSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD4 plays · 66 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
99.9%
Tate Martell run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (Damon Hayes) to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
100.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joshua Alabi) to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+7
100.0%
Tate Martell pass complete to Demario McCall for 7 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26 Isaih Pacheco fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Isaih PachecoSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
100.0%
Giovanni Rescigno pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 13 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+9
100.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds , C.J. Saunders returns for 9 yds to the OhSt 48 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 39 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q4 3:20
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Drue Chrisman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Raheem Blackshear at the Rutgr 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 1:51
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+4
100.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 49 yds , C.J. Saunders returns for 4 yds to the OhSt 18 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OhSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26Uncategorized1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:28
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 9 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 11:05
Tate Martell pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 51 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 3:22
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 16 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+0.4