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TXST

Texas State 7 at Rutgers 35

RUTG
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:30 · Clayton Stewart punt for 49 yds, downed at the Rutgr 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+18.7Home team on offense+20.9Score differential+14.0Garbage-time factor+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:41: Jonathan Hilliman run for 3 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +3.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:27: Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 9 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +5.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:36: Jonathan Hilliman run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 3 — RUTG win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:17: Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted for a TD Kordell Rodgers return for 51 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK) — TXST win probability +4.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:23: Jonathan Hilliman run for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +5.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 1:40TXST 4th & 10 at RUTG 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:33RUTG 4th & 10 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:45TXST 4th & 16 at RUTG 32, down 21
    Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:53TXST 4th & 9 at RUTG 38, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:07RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 27, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:30TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 5, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:39RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:34TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 6, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:17TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:03RUTG 4th & 3 at TXST 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:53TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 36, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:41RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:41RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:27RUTG Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:17TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:23RUTG Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:1988% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
88.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 4 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
88.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+11
88.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 11 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
88.1%
Shameen Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
88.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+17
88.1%
Artur Sitkowski run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
88.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
88.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+10
88.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 10 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
87.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 9 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2MISSED FG
20 plays · 59 yds · 7:5713% → 14%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
87.4%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 6Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+4
87.4%
Willie Jones III run for 4 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+10
87.5%
JonesIII,Willie pass incomplete to Haydel,Jeremiah (Hayes, Damon), PENALTY RU holding (Wharton, Isaiah) 10 yards to the TXST20, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
87.4%
Willie Jones III sacked by Elorm Lumor for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+16
87.4%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 16 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
87.3%
Willie Jones III run for 22 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
87.1%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
87.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
87.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
87.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
87.0%
JonesIII,Willie rush for no gain to the RU35, out-of-bounds (Lumor, Elorm), QB hurry by Morris, Trevor, PENALTY TXST holding (Brewer,Aaron) 10 yards to the RU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 20
OPP 45
-15
87.2%
Willie Jones III sacked by Blessuan Austin for a loss of 15 yards to the RUTGERS 40 TEXAS STATE Penalty, intentional grounding (Willie Jones III) to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 35
OWN 40
+3
87.3%
Tyler Watts run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 32
OWN 43
+8
87.4%
Willie Jones III run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 24
OPP 49
+15
87.5%
Stewart,Clayton punt 49 yards to the RU0, touchback, PENALTY RU personal foul (Stevens, L.) 15 yards to the RU34, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
87.0%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+4
87.2%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 4 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
87.2%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
86.2%
Chris Kessler 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Elorm Lumor Isaiah Wharton return for no gain to the Rutgr 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:5987% → 90%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-11
86.8%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Frankie Griffin for a loss of 11 yards to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 21
OWN 35
+11
86.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 11 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+14
86.3%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete to Jabbie, Mohamed, PENALTY TXST roughing passer (Vinson,Hal) 14 yards to the TXST40, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
86.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+12
86.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 12 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
86.8%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 3 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
86.8%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 4 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+17
86.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 17 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.8%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 3 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
88.6%
Willie Jones III pass intercepted Blessuan Austin return for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
89.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
89.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
50
-1
89.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
89.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Raheem Blackshear, broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+6
89.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 6 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 5
OPP 45
-5
89.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 10
50
0
89.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
88.7%
Jaylin Nelson run for no gain to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-2
88.8%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+6
88.9%
Willie Jones III run for 6 yds to the TexSt 3 Willie Jones III fumbled, forced by Rashawn Battle, recovered by Rutgr Elorm Lumor , return for 14 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4590% → 95%
Q2 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
89.6%
Jonathan Hilliman run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 9 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 2:426% → 6%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+37
94.0%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 37 yds to the RUTGERS 38 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
93.4%
Willie Jones III run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
93.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
93.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-5
92.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+5
92.9%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 5 yds to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-10
93.0%
JonesIII,Willie rush for 5 yards to the RU17 (Fogg, Tyshon), QB hurry by Fatukasi, O., PENALTY TXST holding (Rowland,Jacob) 10 yards to the RU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
93.7%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 16
OPP 32
0
94.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 31 yds, downed at the Rutgr 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9INT
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:3996% → 97%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
96.1%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 3Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
96.0%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 6Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+8
95.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 8 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
95.6%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+24
95.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 24 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
95.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 12 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.7%
Sitkowski, A. pass complete to Blackshear, R. for loss of 7 yards to the RU47, out-of-bounds (Griffin,Frankie), PENALTY TXST offside defense (Hines,Kumonde) 5 yards to the TXST41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+29
95.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jerome Washington for 29 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
95.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 15
OPP 17
0
96.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted, touchback. Jarron Morris return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
95.0%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 23 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.7%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
94.7%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+18
94.8%
Willie Jones III run for 18 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
94.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 15
OPP 44
-15
94.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 30
OWN 41
-6
95.0%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 10 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
95.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
95.5%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
95.6%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Avery YoungSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
95.6%
Clayton Stewart punt for 29 yds , Raheem Blackshear returns for no gain to the Rutgr 39 Raheem Blackshear fumbled, recovered by TexSt Dennis Johnson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
95.3%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-6
95.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Aaron Brewer) to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+5
95.5%
Willie Jones III run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
95.5%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Jah'Marae Sheread, broken up by Damon HayesSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+20
95.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 25 yds, downed at the Rutgr 13 TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Bo Melton, broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
96.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+4
96.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jonathan Hilliman for 4 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
96.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 47 yds, downed at the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
96.4%
Willie Jones III run for 5 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-4
96.2%
Jah'Marae Sheread run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
96.5%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
96.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 49 yds, downed at the Rutgr 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15INT TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:3697% → 92%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
97.1%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 15 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
97.3%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
97.3%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+51
92.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted for a TD Kordell Rodgers return for 51 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4792% → 99%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 9 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
92.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Jerome WashingtonSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
92.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Hunter Hayek for 10 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
92.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
92.9%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 4 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
92.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jerome Washington for 3 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
92.9%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 4 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+10
92.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 10 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
92.9%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 7 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
92.9%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
98.5%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:192% → 1%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
98.2%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 11
OWN 7
-1
98.2%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
98.7%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 0
-6
98.5%
Stewart,Clayton punt 39 yards to the TXST45, fair catch by Young, Avery, PENALTY RU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the TXST11, NO PLAY, PENALTY TXST personal foul 6 yards to the TXST5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 5
-2
98.7%
Clayton Stewart punt for 60 yds , Avery Young returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
98.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
98.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+2
98.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 2 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+48
98.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 38 yds , Hutch White returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 40 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
98.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-9
98.9%
Willie Jones III sacked by Mike Tverdov for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 14
OWN 6
0
98.9%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete, broken up by Mike TverdovSimilar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 14
OWN 6
0
98.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 47 yds, downed at the Rutgr 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
99.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 15 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
99.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Kordell Rodgers return for no gain to the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:231% → 0%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
99.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 10 yds to the TexSt 13 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Aaron Brewer) to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 6
OWN 7
0
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Olakunle Fatukasi for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen Brown, broken up by Trevor MorrisSimilar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+28
99.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 28 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 11 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
Trey Sneed run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Daevon RobinsonSimilar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 3
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 6 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 12 yds, downed at the TexSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+14
99.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 14 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.9%
Charles Snorweah run for 6 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-2
99.9%
Charles Snorweah run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+9
99.9%
Charles Snorweah run for 9 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
99.9%
Charles Snorweah run for 8 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:23
Jonathan Hilliman run for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q2 7:27
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 9 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q3 7:17
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted for a TD Kordell Rodgers return for 51 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com