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ILL

Illinois 16 at Northwestern 24

NU
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:03 · Jake Collins punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+15.5Home team on offense+19.7Garbage-time factor+9.1Score differential+9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:43: Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Collins KICK) — NU win probability +3.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:17: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Collins KICK) — NU win probability +4.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:03: Jake Collins 25 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +4.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:22: Chase McLaughlin 26 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +2.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:57: AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 10 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +7.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 10 at NU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:32ILL 4th & 3 at NU 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 22 at NU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:29ILL 4th & 1 at NU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:31ILL 4th & 7 at NU 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:56ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 48, down 8
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:03NU 4th & 5 at ILL 7, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:58ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:03NU 4th & 11 at NU 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:01ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 48, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:22ILL 4th & 5 at NU 8, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−4.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:14NU 4th & 3 at NU 34, up 15
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:57NU 4th & 6 at NU 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 5:53NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:43NU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:17NU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:57ILL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
84.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
84.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 6 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
84.8%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-3
84.8%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+26
84.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 26 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
84.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-5
84.8%
Bush,AJ pass complete to Davis,Trenard for 6 yards to the NU43 (Ruiz, Cameron), PENALTY ILL ineligible downfield on pass (Lowe,Vederian) 5 yards to the ILL46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+7
84.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 7 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+9
84.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 9 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-15
84.8%
Bush,AJ pass complete to Davis,Trenard for 16 yards to the NU22 (Whillock, T.), PENALTY ILL pass interference (Barker,Daniel) 15 yards to the ILL47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 47
+9
84.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 9 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
84.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 36 yds, downed at the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 3:2583% → 85%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+55
83.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 55 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
83.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
83.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+12
83.5%
Chad Hanaoka run for 12 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
83.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
83.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+4
83.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Illin 8Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Collins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FG
16 plays · 85 yds · 5:1516% → 19%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
84.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 5 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
84.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 4 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+7
84.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 7 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
83.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 1 yd to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
83.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+14
84.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Caleb Reams for 14 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
83.7%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 6 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+13
83.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 13 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
83.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 18 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+18
83.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 18 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
83.1%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 3Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q1 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Alonzo MayoSimilar
Q1 0:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
80.8%
Chase McLaughlin 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:3281% → 80%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
81.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+6
81.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-11
80.6%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Delano Ware for a loss of 11 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
80.4%
Jake Collins punt for 47 yds, downed at the Illin 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 4:5820% → 22%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
80.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 4 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
79.7%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 7 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
79.5%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 6 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
79.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+3
79.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+14
80.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 14 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
79.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
79.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+14
80.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 14 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
79.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Fred WyattSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
79.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 9 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-6
79.6%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
78.1%
Chase McLaughlin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4880% → 85%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
79.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
79.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 14 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
80.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 13 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
81.0%
Chad Hanaoka run for 6 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+9
81.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 9 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
81.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 8 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+9
81.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Illin 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
81.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
81.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Collins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:3716% → 16%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
84.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 8 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+10
83.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 10 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
83.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
83.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+6
84.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+7
83.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds , Riley Lees returns for 7 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:3084% → 90%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
84.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 9 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+14
84.6%
Chad Hanaoka run for 14 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
85.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 25 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
85.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for 8 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+7
85.8%
Chad Hanaoka run for 7 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
85.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 11 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
85.8%
Chad Hanaoka run for 1 yd to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Collins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
88.9%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:5790% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
90.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 9 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
90.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+9
90.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
90.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
90.5%
Chad Hanaoka run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+13
90.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 13 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
90.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 14 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
90.5%
Chad Hanaoka run for 3 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
90.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+2
90.2%
Chad Hanaoka run for 2 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
94.5%
Jake Collins 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
93.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
93.5%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
93.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.9%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
94.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
94.9%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.0%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
94.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 15 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
95.2%
Jelani Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+2
95.0%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
95.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Jake Collins punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13FG
17 plays · 80 yds · 6:395% → 7%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
94.8%
Bush,AJ pass complete to Reams,Caleb for 3 yards to the ILL15 (Bergin, Chris), PENALTY ILL holding 6 yards to the ILL6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+15
95.0%
Bush,AJ pass incomplete to Smalling,Ricky, PENALTY NU pass interference (Ruiz, Cameron) 15 yards to the ILL21, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
94.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
94.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+14
94.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 14 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
94.5%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Alonzo MayoSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+9
94.7%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 9 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
94.5%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 1 yd to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+28
94.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 28 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
93.6%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
93.6%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 4 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+3
95.3%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
94.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Trenard Davis, broken up by JR PaceSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
94.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+5
95.5%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 5 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
92.8%
Chase McLaughlin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
95.3%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
95.3%
Solomon Vault run for 3 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+2
95.2%
TJ Green run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
94.9%
Jake Collins punt for 47 yds, downed at the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:436% → 15%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
94.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 13 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
94.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Caleb Reams for 21 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
93.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 24 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
92.8%
Bush,AJ pass incomplete to Corbin,Reggie, QB hurry by Brown IV, E., PENALTY ILL holding (Milan,Jamal) 10 yards to the NU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+18
93.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 18 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+3
92.6%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
92.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
92.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
85.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 10 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 89%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.5%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
90.5%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
90.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
89.1%
Jake Collins punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17INT
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:2010% → 13%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
87.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Caleb Reams for 11 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
87.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 3 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+9
87.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 9 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
86.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 28 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
86.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass intercepted Paddy Fisher return for 12 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18END OF GAME
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:3395% → 96%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
94.5%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+3
95.2%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+29
95.1%
John Moten IV run for 29 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
95.9%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+20
96.1%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Del'Shawn Phillips) to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:57
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 10 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 0:17
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Collins KICK)
+4.3
FG · Q3 10:03
Jake Collins 25 yd FG GOOD
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com