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IOWA

Iowa 63 at Illinois 0

ILL
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:19 · Nate Stanley punt for 36 yds, downed at the Illin 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior−35.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:20: Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 9 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +1.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:50: Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +3.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q2 13:42: Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards Ra'Von Bonner fumbled, forced by A.J. Epenesa, recovered by Iowa A.J. Epenesa , return for 19 yds (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +3.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 11:43: Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 11 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +1.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:10: Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 37 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +4.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 12 of 15IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 14:19ILL 4th & 5 at IOWA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:19IOWA 4th & 8 at ILL 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:19ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:46IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:06ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:42ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:43ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:43ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:10ILL 4th & 7 at IOWA 41, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:42IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 8, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:32ILL 4th & 4 at IOWA 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:26ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 22, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:26ILL 4th & 4 at IOWA 46, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:11ILL 4th & 21 at ILL 47, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:28IOWA 4th & 4 at ILL 49, up 49
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:14ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 19, down 49
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00IOWA 4th & 15 at IOWA 22, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:51ILL 4th & 12 at IOWA 45, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:10ILL 4th & 20 at ILL 6, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:41IOWA 4th & 4 at ILL 25, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 6:20IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:50IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:43IOWA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:10IOWA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:11IOWA Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:10IOWA Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:47IOWA Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
14.0%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Del'Shawn Phillips return for no gain to the Iowa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
14.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+11
14.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 11 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
14.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 1 yd to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 3
OPP 34
-2
14.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 14:19
4TH & 5
OPP 36
-8
14.3%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
15.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
15.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 6 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+8
15.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 8 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
15.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
15.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah Fant, broken up by Del'Shawn PhillipsSimilar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
15.1%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
15.2%
Nate Stanley punt for 36 yds, downed at the Illin 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+10
16.7%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 10 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
16.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Austin Roberts for 4 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
16.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Michael OjemudiaSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
16.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+14
16.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 14 yds to the Illin 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:5083% → 84%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
16.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 10 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
16.7%
Toren Young run for 17 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
16.7%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
15.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 9 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
16.4%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+3
16.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 3 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+1
16.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+9
16.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 9 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
16.4%
Toren Young run for 2 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-2
16.4%
Nate Stanley sacked by Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
16.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
16.9%
Colten Rastetter punt for 44 yds, downed at the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
17.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
17.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
17.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+9
16.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds , Amani Hooker returns for 9 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:1583% → 86%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
16.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Kyle Groeneweg for 14 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
16.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+6
16.5%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 6 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
16.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+15
16.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 15 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
16.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 10 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
10.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards Ra'Von Bonner fumbled, forced by A.J. Epenesa, recovered by Iowa A.J. Epenesa , return for 19 yds (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
10.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
10.5%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+9
10.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 9 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
10.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 10 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
10.7%
Blake Hayes punt blocked by blocked by Nick Niemann return for 7 yds to the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
9.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 11 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
9.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
8.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
8.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
8.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 7 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
9.5%
Bush,AJ pass complete to Stampley,D. for 27 yards to the IOWA32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ILL pass interference (Stampley,D.) 15 yards to the ILL26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+18
9.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 18 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
9.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
9.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam Mays, broken up by Geno StoneSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
9.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kyle Groeneweg at the Iowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 2:2791% → 96%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+37
9.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 37 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
8.7%
Young,Toren rush for 11 yards to the ILL35 (Hansen,Jake), PENALTY IOWA personal foul (Wieting,Nate) 15 yards to the IOWA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+14
8.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 14 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+10
8.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 10 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+37
3.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 37 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15INT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.5%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
4.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 5 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
4.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
4.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 9 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+12
4.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 12 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
4.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 5 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-4
4.7%
Trenard Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+2
4.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
4.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass intercepted Michael Ojemudia return for no gain to the Iowa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1997% → 97%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
3.0%
Nate Stanley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
2.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi SargentSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+3
2.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds to the Iowa 8Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 4
OWN 8
+4
3.0%
Colten Rastetter punt for 42 yds , Nate Hobbs returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
1.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 6 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
1.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
1.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
1.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam Mays, broken up by Michael OjemudiaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
2.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 12 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:343% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ra'Von Bonner for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
3.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-10
3.0%
Hayes,Blake punt 47 yards to the IOWA21, downed, PENALTY ILL holding (Tabel,Ethan) 10 yards to the ILL22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+61
1.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 61 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 12 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
1.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Jakari Norwood for 11 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
1.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-1
1.7%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 47Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+1
1.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ra'Von Bonner for 1 yd to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+39
1.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass intercepted Amani Hooker return for 39 yds to the Illin 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3999% → 99%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
1.4%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
1.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Toren Young for 3 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+9
1.4%
Nate Stanley run for 9 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.4%
Toren Young run for no gain to the Illin 5Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. Hockenson, broken up by Delano WareSimilar
Q3 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.2%
Toren Young run for 5 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
0.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 19 yds to the ILLINOIS 45 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (-25 Yards) to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 16
OWN 30
+12
0.7%
Jakari Norwood run for 12 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+16
0.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 16 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 18
50
-3
0.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 21
OWN 47
0
0.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 36 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for no gain to the Iowa 32 Kyle Groeneweg fumbled, forced by Kerby Joseph, recovered by Iowa IOWA Penalty, kick catching interference (13 Yards) to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
0.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling ILLINOIS Penalty, intentional grounding (AJ Bush Jr.) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 21
OWN 47
0
0.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
0.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Toren Young for 4 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
0.9%
Toren Young run for 9 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
0.9%
Toren Young run for 6 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
0.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Toren YoungSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
0.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
1.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 36 yds , Nate Hobbs returns for no gain to the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
0.3%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 4 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
0.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Jakari NorwoodSimilar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+2
0.3%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 4
OWN 19
+8
0.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 27 , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 8 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0699% → 99%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
0.7%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
0.7%
Toren Young run for 2 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-8
0.7%
Nate Stanley sacked by Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 22Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
0.6%
Colten Rastetter punt for 33 yds, downed at the Illin 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
0.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
0.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 11 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic StampleySimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
0.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
0.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 12
OPP 45
+5
0.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 5 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
0.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 13 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
0.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
0.4%
Peyton Mansell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+19
0.4%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Dominique Dafney for 19 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
0.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 29 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
0.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
0.2%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Trenard Davis, broken up by A.J. EpenesaSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-11
0.2%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Kristian Welch and A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 11 yards to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 20
OWN 6
+11
0.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 56 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 11 yds to the Iowa 17 IOWA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 29TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
0.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+18
0.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 18 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
0.3%
Peyton Mansell run for 7 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-2
0.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+1
0.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+11
0.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 11 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
0.2%
Toren Young run for 14 yds for a TD (Caleb Schudak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 30INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Jakari Norwood run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
0.1%
Jakari Norwood run for 4 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
0.1%
Jakari Norwood run for 11 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
0.1%
M.J. Rivers II run for 5 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
0.1%
Kenyon Sims run for 6 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
0.1%
Kenyon Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+15
0.1%
M.J. Rivers II pass intercepted Kristian Welch return for 15 yds to the Illin 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
0.2%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-3
0.2%
Toren Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+5
0.2%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:10
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 37 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)
-4.9
FUMBLE · Q2 13:42
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards Ra'Von Bonner fumbled, forced by A.J. Epenesa, recovered by Iowa A.J. Epenesa , return for 19 yds (Miguel Recinos KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q2 13:50
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com