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ILL

Illinois 35 at Nebraska 54

NEB
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:20 · Isaac Armstrong punt for 38 yds , Nate Hobbs returns for 2 yds to the Illin 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Pregame prior+2.5Home team on offense+30.2Score differential+19.5Garbage-time factor+14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:40: AJ Bush Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +3.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:00: Devine Ozigbo run for 66 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +6.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:58: AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +6.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:03: Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 12 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +4.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:12: Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 1:49ILL 4th & 5 at NEB 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00NEB 4th & 12 at NEB 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:36NEB 4th & 7 at ILL 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:36ILL 4th & 1 at NEB 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:00ILL 4th & 3 at NEB 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:33NEB 4th & 17 at NEB 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:00NEB 4th & 3 at ILL 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:00NEB 4th & 3 at ILL 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:00NEB 4th & 9 at ILL 24, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:07ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 34, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:10ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 26, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:10NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 28, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:49ILL 4th & 23 at ILL 29, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:20NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 33, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:58NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:39ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:27NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:40ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:54NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:00NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:58ILL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:03NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:12NEB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:44ILL Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:15NEB Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:21ILL Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0287% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 8 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+30
87.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 30 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
87.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 37 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:1413% → 14%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
87.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+13
87.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 13 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
87.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 15 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
87.0%
M.J. Rivers II run for 6 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+20
87.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 20 yds to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
87.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
87.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Neb 11Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
85.7%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:0686% → 87%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
85.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 8 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+16
86.0%
Maurice Washington run for 16 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
86.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+49
86.0%
Maurice Washington run for 49 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
86.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
86.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 3 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
86.6%
Adrian Martinez run for 9 yds for a TD ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:4314% → 18%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
86.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+7
86.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+6
86.3%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 6 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
86.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+17
86.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 17 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
85.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 4 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+34
85.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 34 yds to the Neb 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
82.5%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4684% → 86%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
83.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
83.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
50
+18
84.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for 18 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
86.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 32 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
85.3%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
85.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+23
85.5%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 23 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
84.7%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 5 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
84.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
84.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam Mays, broken up by Carlos DavisSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
85.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0785% → 85%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
85.4%
Maurice Washington run for 2 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
85.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 6 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-10
85.1%
Adrian Martinez rush up middle for 10 yards to the NEB38, PENALTY NEB holding (Jerald Foster) 10 yards to the NEB18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
85.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to JD Spielman, broken up by Sydney BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
84.7%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 37 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for no gain to the Illin 45 Carlos Sandy fumbled, recovered by Neb Chase UrbachSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1986% → 86%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
85.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
85.9%
Adrian Martinez run for 11 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
86.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+13
86.0%
Stanley Morgan rush over right end for no gain to the ILL26, PENALTY ILL personal foul (Hansen,Jake) 13 yards to the ILL13, 1ST DOWN NEB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
86.0%
Devine Ozigbo rush up middle for 7 yards to the ILL6, PENALTY NEB holding (Jerald Foster) 10 yards to the ILL23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+5
85.9%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 15
OPP 18
0
85.8%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+8
85.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 8 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
85.6%
Barret Pickering 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FUMBLE
11 plays · 52 yds · 0:0014% → 16%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
85.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
85.4%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 11 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
85.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 8 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
84.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
85.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
84.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 13 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam Mays, broken up by Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
84.3%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 9 yds to the Neb 23 AJ Bush Jr. fumbled, forced by Tre Neal, recovered by Neb JoJo DomannSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 1:1386% → 92%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
85.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
85.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 8 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
91.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 66 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:029% → 16%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
90.3%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
90.5%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 6 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
90.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+7
90.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 7 yds Trenard Davis fumbled, forced by Tre Neal, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
90.1%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Khalil Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 23
OWN 36
0
90.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Dre BrownSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 23
OWN 36
+20
90.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 20 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+24
90.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 9 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (Mohamed Barry) to the Neb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
89.4%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 6 yds to the Neb 14Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
89.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+12
90.2%
Bush,AJ pass incomplete to Mays,Sam, PENALTY NEB pass interference (Dicaprio Bootle) 12 yards to the NEB2, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:1988% → 86%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Bobby RoundtreeSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
87.6%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-7
87.1%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
86.3%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 43 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for no gain to the Illin 7 Jordan Holmes fumbled, recovered by Neb Jeramiah StovallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1789% → 93%
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
88.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
88.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
92.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 12 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.1%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
91.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 8 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+12
91.0%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 12 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
91.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+8
91.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 8 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
90.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 15
50
+15
91.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass intercepted Aaron Williams return for no gain to the 50 yard line NEBRASKA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Neb 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16TD
17 plays · 82 yds · 7:4893% → 98%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
92.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
92.6%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+19
92.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 19 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
93.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 11 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
93.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 11
50
0
93.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 11
50
+8
92.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 8 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+4
92.4%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.1%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
93.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 8 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-1
92.9%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+6
92.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 6 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
93.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-8
93.1%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Del'Shawn Phillips for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 18
OPP 33
+9
92.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 9 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+20
92.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 20 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
97.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for no gain to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
97.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds , JD Spielman returns for 7 yds to the Neb 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18INT
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:2299% → 99%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
98.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 8 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
98.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 5 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
98.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Bryan Reimers for 20 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
98.6%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 44 Adrian Martinez fumbled, recovered by Neb , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 44
-5
98.8%
NEBRASKA Penalty, delay of game (Adrian Martinez) to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+30
98.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 30 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
98.8%
Kade Warner run for 4 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
98.8%
Adrian Martinez pass intercepted, touchback. Tony Adams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19SF
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:351% → 0%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 5 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
98.7%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
98.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Blake Hayes punt blocked by Marquel Dismuke, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 0 for a SAFETY blocked by Marquel Dismuke for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
99.6%
Wyatt Mazour run for 3 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Wyatt MazourSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 4
OWN 33
-5
99.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (Wyatt Mazour) to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+63
99.6%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEBRASKA 17 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Christian Bobak) to the Illin 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+33
99.8%
Dre Brown run for 33 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
99.8%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Caleb Tannor for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 35 ILLINOIS Penalty, intentional grounding (AJ Bush Jr.) to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
99.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-6
99.8%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Mick Stoltenberg for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 23
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.7%
Andrew Bunch run for 13 yds to the Neb 39 Andrew Bunch fumbled, forced by Dele Harding, recovered by Illin Owen Carney Jr. , return for 2 yds to the Neb 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 1:220% → 3%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
99.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 33 yds to the Neb 6 Ra'Von Bonner fumbled, forced by Deontai Williams, recovered by Illin Ra'Von Bonner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the Neb 2Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2998% → 100%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
98.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 17 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
98.5%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+60
99.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 60 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 2:460% → 2%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
99.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+4
99.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+13
99.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 13 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 5 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+15
99.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 15 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+41
99.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 41 yds to the Neb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.8%
Dre Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.0%
Mikale Wilbon run for 2 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
99.0%
Mikale Wilbon run for 4 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-1
99.0%
Mikale Wilbon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 33Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+2
98.9%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 38 yds , Nate Hobbs returns for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
98.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 15 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
98.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 6
50
0
98.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass intercepted Mick Stoltenberg return for no gain to the Illin 43 Mick Stoltenberg fumbled, forced by Alex Palczewski, recovered by Neb Freedom AkinmoladunSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.3%
Austin Rose run for 7 yds to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:00
Devine Ozigbo run for 66 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q2 0:58
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
-6
TD · Q3 4:12
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com