Try the model
MINN

Minnesota 31 at Illinois 55

ILL
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:36 · Blake Hayes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense+2.4Pregame prior−18.3Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:14: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +3.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:48: AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 67 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +8.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:12: AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +16.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:14: AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Daniel Barker for 30 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +17.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:07: Reggie Corbin run for 77 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +6.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 5:51MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:36ILL 4th & 7 at MINN 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    37.6%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:36MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51ILL 4th & 10 at MINN 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:48MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 34, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:31ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:32MINN 4th & 13 at ILL 34, down 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    41.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06MINN 4th & 9 at ILL 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:14MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:07MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 37, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:35ILL 4th & 6 at MINN 30, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:21ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:31MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:01ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:14MINN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:48ILL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:12ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:14ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:07ILL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:31MINN Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:59ILL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:46MINN Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:3929% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
28.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+72
29.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 72 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5071% → 69%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
29.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod Bateman, broken up by Tony AdamsSimilar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
29.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
29.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
29.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
29.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+11
29.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
29.3%
Tanner Morgan run for 9 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+6
29.3%
Seth Green run for 6 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
29.3%
Tanner Morgan run for 4 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+8
29.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 8 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
31.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3032% → 35%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.9%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
34.7%
Dre Brown run for 72 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:1065% → 63%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
35.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 12 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
35.1%
Seth Green run for no gain to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
35.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-5
36.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
36.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Demetrius DouglasSimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
36.8%
Jacob Herbers punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
37.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+20
37.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 20 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
37.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
37.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic StampleySimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+7
37.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 7 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
37.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
38.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 7 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
38.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
38.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Demetrius DouglasSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
39.1%
Jacob Herbers punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:2141% → 43%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
41.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 14 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
41.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 8 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+8
41.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Caleb Reams for 8 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
41.3%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 21Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+3
41.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 3 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
43.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
43.2%
Chase McLaughlin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:3757% → 62%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
43.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+13
43.1%
Seth Green run for 13 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
42.7%
Seth Green pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
42.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
42.2%
Seth Green run for 5 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
42.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 10 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
42.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Calvin Avery) to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
41.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 9 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+7
41.3%
Seth Green run for 7 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:2642% → 52%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
41.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 7 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+3
43.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
43.0%
Bush,AJ pass complete to Brown,Dre for 31 yards to the MINN26 (Howden, Jordan), PENALTY ILL holding (Lowe,Vederian) 10 yards to the ILL33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+67
51.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 67 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
51.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
51.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
52.0%
Jacob Herbers punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
54.5%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 8 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-1
55.3%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
53.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
52.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for no gain to the Minn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:4244% → 40%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
55.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 10 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
55.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
55.4%
Seth Green run for 4 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+31
55.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 31 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
52.3%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
52.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Del'Shawn PhillipsSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-6
53.4%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Del'Shawn Phillips and Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+9
59.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 9 yds to the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:3858% → 61%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
59.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 11 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
60.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
50
0
60.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass intercepted Coney Durr return for no gain to the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:3343% → 44%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
56.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod Bateman, broken up by Tony Adams for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
55.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 25 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
54.8%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Illin 10Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
56.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Tony AdamsSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
57.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
55.6%
Emmit Carpenter 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
56.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-3
54.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
56.7%
Jacob Herbers punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Holmes at the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:5758% → 77%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
58.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-1
60.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+14
58.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 14 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic Stampley, broken up by Chris WilliamsonSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+44
59.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 44 yds to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
60.7%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Minn 3 AJ Bush Jr. fumbled, forced by Chris Williamson, recovered by Illin Kendrick GreenSimilar
Q3 10:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Tanner Morgan run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.1%
Seth Green run for 5 yds to the Minn 30 Seth Green fumbled, forced by Del'Shawn Phillips, recovered by Illin Kenyon JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
91.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Daniel Barker for 30 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
90.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+15
90.1%
Morgan, Tanner sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MINN9 (Avery,Calvin), PENALTY ILL face mask (Avery,Calvin) 15 yards to the MINN32, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
89.7%
Bryce Williams run for 6 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-1
89.6%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Tony Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+10
89.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 10 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
89.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
89.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
90.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Holmes at the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 1:4693% → 99%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
93.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
93.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+3
93.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 3 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
99.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 77 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.2%
Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
99.1%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
99.1%
Tanner Morgan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 37 Tanner Morgan fumbled, recovered by Minn Tanner Morgan , return for 2 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
99.1%
Jacob Herbers punt for 39 yds , Jartavius Martin returns for no gain to the Illin 23 Jartavius Martin fumbled, recovered by Minn Payton JordahlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.4%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+6
99.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 6 yds to the Illin 16 Tanner Morgan fumbled, forced by Jake Hansen, recovered by Illin Jake HansenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:59100% → 100%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
99.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+11
99.6%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 11 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 7 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
99.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 4 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
99.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 20 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.7%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 8 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-1
99.6%
Dre Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-3
99.6%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Jamaal Teague for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
99.8%
Chase McLaughlin 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:040% → 1%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
98.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 61 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3299% → 100%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
98.8%
Dre Brown run for 10 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 6 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+9
98.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 9 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 5 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
98.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+18
98.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 18 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
98.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 5 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
98.9%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+10
98.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Austin Roberts for 10 yds to the Minn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic StampleySimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
98.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 12Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 28TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete, broken up by Kerby JosephSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-9
100.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Marc Mondesir for a loss of 9 yards to the Minn 14Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+86
99.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 86 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.8%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
99.8%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-2
99.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:14
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Daniel Barker for 30 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+17.8
TD · Q3 10:12
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q2 7:48
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 67 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com