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ILL

Illinois 20 at Wisconsin 49

WIS
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.3WIS 98.9%Chase McLaughlin 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 42 · Q4 14:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:05 · Chase McLaughlin 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+14.4Home team on offense+28.0Score differential+20.9Garbage-time factor+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.3Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:55: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 27 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +3.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:41: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 11 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Chase McLaughlin 52 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +3.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:57: Ra'Von Bonner run for 18 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +5.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:22: Taiwan Deal run for 39 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 7:01ILL 4th & 5 at WIS 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:51WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:33WIS 4th & 8 at ILL 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:36WIS 4th & 7 at ILL 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:19WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:24ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:22ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:05ILL 4th & 3 at WIS 8, down 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:05ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:15WIS 4th & 5 at ILL 46, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:30ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 19, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:27WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:01WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:19ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:55WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:41WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:57ILL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:22WIS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:14WIS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:05WIS Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3394% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
94.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
94.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 6 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
94.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
94.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
94.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 13 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
94.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+17
93.4%
Garrett Groshek run for 17 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
93.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 12 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
93.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
Alec Ingold run for 1 yd for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
93.4%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 16 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
93.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 8 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
93.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+28
93.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass intercepted T.J. Edwards return for 28 yds to the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:5293% → 94%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
93.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
94.2%
Aron Cruickshank run for 23 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.9%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
93.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 13 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
93.9%
Mike Epstein run for 11 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
93.8%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 12
50
+7
93.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
93.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
93.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+18
94.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 18 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
94.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
94.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
94.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 4
OWN 35
-2
93.9%
Anthony Lotti punt for 13 yds , Jimmy Marchese returns for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:417% → 7%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
50
+5
93.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 5 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
93.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
93.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
93.4%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 6 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+10
93.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 10 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
93.0%
Dominic Stampley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 25 Dominic Stampley fumbled, forced by Evan Bondoc, recovered by Illin AJ Bush Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+2
93.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 2 yds Reggie Corbin fumbled, forced by Jack Sanborn, recovered by Wisc Chris OrrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
93.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 24Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
93.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.1%
Garrett Groshek run for 4 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+9
94.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 9 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
94.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
94.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
94.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
93.9%
Anthony Lotti punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.4%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
93.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
93.5%
AJ Bush Jr. pass intercepted Evan Bondoc return for no gain to the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9MISSED FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:2894% → 94%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
94.1%
Kendric Pryor run for 3 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+29
94.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Alec Ingold for 29 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
94.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 7 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-4
94.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
94.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
93.5%
Rafael Gaglianone 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
90.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 80 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.6%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
90.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 5 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
90.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 37 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
89.6%
Rivers,M.J. pass complete to Smalling,Ricky for 7 yards to the ILL45 (Williams, C.), PENALTY ILL ineligible downfield on pass (Palczewski,Alex) 5 yards to the ILL33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
90.0%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+2
90.1%
M.J. Rivers II run for 2 yds to the Illin 35 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+4
90.3%
M.J. Rivers II pass intercepted Olive Sagapolu return for 4 yds to the Illin 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
93.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 27 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
93.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
93.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 35 Reggie Corbin fumbled, forced by Eric Burrell, recovered by Wisc Rachad WildgooseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:3494% → 98%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
94.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
94.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 13 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
97.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 11 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:173% → 3%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-14
96.9%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Matt Henningsen for a loss of 14 yards to the Illin 11Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+11
96.8%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 11 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
96.7%
M.J. Rivers II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
96.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 33 yds, downed at the Wisc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
97.7%
WISCONSIN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+23
97.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 23 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
97.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 11 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
97.8%
Hornibrook, A. pass complete to Ferguson, Jake for 21 yards to the ILL5 (Hansen,Jake), PENALTY WIS holding (Deiter, Michael) 10 yards to the ILL36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 20
OPP 36
0
97.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+49
97.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Stanley Green return for 49 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18FG
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:074% → 7%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
96.1%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Daniel Barker for 5 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+52
92.7%
Chase McLaughlin 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
94.8%
M.J. Rivers II run for 6 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, personal foul (Ryan Connelly) to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
94.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
94.4%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Carmoni Green for 3 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-10
94.3%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Andrew Van Ginkel for a loss of 10 yards to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
95.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
96.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
96.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
96.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Jimmy Marchese return for 3 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:256% → 11%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
94.2%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Trenard Davis for 25 yds to the Wisc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
88.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 18 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3591% → 97%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
91.6%
Garrett Groshek run for 1 yd to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+22
91.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 22 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
96.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 39 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
95.5%
M.J. Rivers II run for 1 yd to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-9
95.6%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Zack Baun for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+35
95.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 35 yds, downed at the WISCONSIN 44 ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 4:1297% → 100%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 4
50
-5
96.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the WISCONSIN 45 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive holding (Michael Deiter) to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
96.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 8 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
96.8%
Alec Ingold run for 5 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
96.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
96.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 8 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
96.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 12 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Alec Ingold for 19 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:091% → 1%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.1%
Dre Brown run for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 5 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+25
99.1%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Carmoni Green for 25 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
99.0%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+18
99.0%
M.J. Rivers II run for 8 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive holding (Rachad Wildgoose) to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
98.9%
Rivers,M.J. pass incomplete to Smalling,Ricky (Williams, C.), PENALTY ILL ineligible downfield on pass (Roberts,Austin) 5 yards to the WIS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+2
98.8%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Trenard Davis for 2 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
99.1%
M.J. Rivers II pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+10
99.2%
M.J. Rivers II run for 10 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
98.9%
Chase McLaughlin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 26TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 5:5499% → 100%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
99.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 13Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+17
99.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 17 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 3
OWN 0
+19
99.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 19 yds to the WISCONSIN 44 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
99.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 8 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+6
99.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 6 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+6
99.4%
Alec Ingold run for 6 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
99.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 6 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+8
99.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 8 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 6 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Alexander SmithSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Dominic StampleySimilar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
99.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 15 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 9 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Mason Stokke run for 4 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Mason Stokke run for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-2
99.9%
Chris James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Anthony Lotti punt for 43 yds, downed at the Illin 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
99.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Jordan Holmes for 9 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+4
99.9%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.9%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Dre Brown run for no gain to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
99.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Carmoni GreenSimilar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds, downed at the Wisc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Chris James run for 5 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+8
99.9%
Chris James run for 8 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:22
Taiwan Deal run for 39 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q3 10:57
Ra'Von Bonner run for 18 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
-5.3
TD · Q2 1:41
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 11 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com