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PUR

Purdue 46 at Illinois 7

ILL
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:34 · Nick Sipe run for no gain to the Prdue 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:07: AJ Bush Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +2.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: Markell Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Evans PAT BLOCKED) — PUR win probability +2.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:15: Spencer Evans 37 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +5.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:09: David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 42 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PUR win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:06: David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 7 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK) — PUR win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:20PUR 4th & 11 at PUR 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:25ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:06ILL 4th & 19 at ILL 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:12ILL 4th & 20 at PUR 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:15PUR 4th & 9 at ILL 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:15ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 42, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:07PUR 4th & 4 at ILL 30, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:13ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 33, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:06ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 22, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:09ILL 4th & 17 at ILL 47, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:57PUR 4th & 15 at ILL 15, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:57ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 32, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:33PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 23, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:10ILL 4th & 19 at ILL 45, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:34PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 17, up 39
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:07ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:25PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:06PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:56PUR Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:09PUR Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:06PUR Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:10PUR Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
22.3%
Dominic Stampley run for 6 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
22.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 7 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
22.3%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 6 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
22.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
22.3%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+8
22.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 50 yds , Rondale Moore returns for 8 yds to the Prdue 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 1:3477% → 76%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
23.4%
Rondale Moore run for 3 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-2
23.4%
D.J. Knox run for 8 yds to the Prdue 25 PURDUE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Prdue 15Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+8
23.4%
D.J. Knox run for 8 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+1
23.4%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
24.1%
David Blough pass complete to Jared Sparks for 6 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
24.0%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-7
24.1%
David Blough sacked by Ayo Shogbonyo for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 23Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 11
OWN 23
-6
24.3%
Joe Schopper punt for 48 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3325% → 29%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
25.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 5 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
25.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+8
24.8%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 8 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+52
25.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 52 yds to the Prdue 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
25.6%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 7 yds to the Prdue 5Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
28.5%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4272% → 74%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
27.7%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 39 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
27.1%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 24 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
26.7%
Alexander Horvath run for 5 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
26.7%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 4 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
25.6%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.5%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
26.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
25.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:3574% → 77%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+60
26.5%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 60 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
25.6%
PURDUE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
25.7%
David Blough pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 8 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
23.1%
Jared Sparks pass complete to David Blough for 7 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
24.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-7
23.8%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Cornel Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
23.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:5077% → 80%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
23.5%
David Blough pass incomplete to Rondale MooreSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
23.7%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 2 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+10
23.7%
David Blough pass complete to Jared Sparks for 10 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
23.3%
Rondale Moore run for no gain to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+41
23.4%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 41 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
23.2%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
23.2%
David Blough pass complete to Jared Sparks for 2 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.3%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Evans PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:4422% → 21%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
21.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 13 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
22.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+30
21.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 30 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
22.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 9 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
23.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for no gain to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
22.6%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
23.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+24
22.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 24 yds to the Prdue 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
23.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Prdue 5Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
23.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Antonio BlackmonSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
22.6%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Jacob Thieneman for a loss of 15 yards to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
21.4%
Chase McLaughlin 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:5779% → 85%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
20.6%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 16 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
20.2%
D.J. Knox run for 14 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
19.9%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+10
19.9%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 10 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
19.8%
D.J. Knox run for no gain to the Illin 35 PURDUE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
19.9%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 9 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+5
19.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
19.7%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
19.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
20.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
14.9%
Spencer Evans 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
18.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Mike Epstein for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
18.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Carmoni Green for 6 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
18.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Carmoni Green, broken up by Brennan ThienemanSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
18.3%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
18.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Trenard DavisSimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
18.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Rondale Moore at the Prdue 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
14.4%
Markell Jones run for 23 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
13.6%
Markell Jones run for 8 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+10
13.4%
Markell Jones run for 10 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
13.5%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
13.4%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 4 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
13.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Brycen Hopkins, broken up by Sydney BrownSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+1
14.5%
David Blough run for 1 yd to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
16.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 3 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-10
16.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+11
16.2%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 11 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
16.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Trenard DavisSimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
16.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Rondale Moore at the Prdue 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:2988% → 92%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
12.3%
D.J. Knox run for 8 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+25
13.8%
D.J. Knox run for 25 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
8.4%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 42 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
13.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5491% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.0%
D.J. Knox run for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
8.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to Rondale MooreSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
9.3%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for no gain to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
9.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense (Stanley Green) to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
8.9%
D.J. Knox run for 9 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
8.4%
D.J. Knox run for 3 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
8.5%
PURDUE Penalty, illegal block (Brycen Hopkins) to the Prdue 37Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+28
8.8%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 28 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
8.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense (Owen Carney Jr.) to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+12
8.2%
D.J. Knox run for 12 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
8.2%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+7
8.2%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 7 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.9%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 7 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
4.5%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
4.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
4.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
4.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
3.0%
PURDUE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+10
3.0%
Markell Jones run for 10 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
3.0%
David Blough pass complete to Darius Pittman for 16 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
2.8%
Jared Sparks run for 3 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-5
2.8%
PURDUE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+7
2.9%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 7 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+2
2.9%
David Blough pass intercepted Sydney Brown return for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
2.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+18
2.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 18 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
2.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 8 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
2.3%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
2.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Lou DorseySimilar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-9
2.2%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Giovanni Reviere for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+2
2.1%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Mike Epstein for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
2.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1698% → 99%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
2.0%
D.J. Knox run for 13 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+48
2.1%
D.J. Knox run for 33 yds to the ILLINOIS 34 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Dawson DeGroot) to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
1.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
1.9%
D.J. Knox run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+11
2.0%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 11 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
0.6%
David Blough sacked by Owen Carney Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
0.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
0.7%
Spencer Evans 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Caleb Reams for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
0.4%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
0.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Carmoni Green, broken up by Kenneth Major ILLINOIS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds , Jackson Anthrop returns for no gain to the Prdue 19 Jackson Anthrop fumbled, recovered by Prdue Jackson AnthropSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
0.5%
Tario Fuller run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 17Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+3
0.5%
Tario Fuller run for 3 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+3
0.5%
David Blough pass complete to Tario Fuller for 3 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+7
0.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 46 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for 7 yds to the Illin 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23INT
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
0.3%
Mike Epstein run for 10 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
0.3%
AJ Bush Jr. pass intercepted Kenneth Major return for 10 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 5:33100% → 100%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
0.3%
Tario Fuller run for 8 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
0.3%
Tario Fuller run for 5 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
0.3%
Tario Fuller run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
0.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to Darius Pittman, broken up by Sydney BrownSimilar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+31
0.3%
David Blough pass complete to Tario Fuller for 18 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, roughing passer (Calvin Avery) to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
0.3%
Alexander Horvath run for no gain to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+10
0.3%
Alexander Horvath run for 10 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.3%
Alexander Horvath run for 1 yd to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
0.3%
Tario Fuller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 3Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.1%
Alexander Horvath run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Matt Robinson run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
0.1%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Carmoni Green for 10 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
0.1%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Ra'Von Bonner for 3 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+12
0.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 12 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.1%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Jordan HolmesSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-2
0.1%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Carmoni Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 48Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-7
0.1%
Matt Robinson sacked by Keiwan Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
0.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26Uncategorized
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
0.1%
N/A run for no gain to the Prdue 17Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
0.1%
N/A run for no gain to the Prdue 17Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
0.1%
N/A run for no gain to the Prdue 17Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
0.1%
Nick Sipe run for no gain to the Prdue 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:06
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 7 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)
-5.3
FG · Q2 6:15
Spencer Evans 37 yd FG GOOD
-5.1
TD · Q2 0:09
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 42 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com