Try the model
ILL

Illinois 38 at Rutgers 17

RUTG
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · High Point Solutions Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-3.9RUTG 0.6%Mike Epstein run for 41 yds for a TD(Chase McLaughlin KICK)AWAY 38 - HOME 17 · Q4 5:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:07 · Mike Epstein run for 41 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense−52.1Score differential−28.8Pregame prior−1.2Garbage-time factor−9.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:18: Jonathan Hilliman run for 32 yds for a TD (Gavin Haggerty KICK) — RUTG win probability +4.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:36: AJ Bush Jr. run for 41 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +5.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:17: Reggie Corbin run for 73 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +9.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:57: Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 7 yds for a TD (Gavin Haggerty KICK) — RUTG win probability +8.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:10: AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 11 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +13.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33ILL 4th & 5 at RUTG 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:33RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:12ILL 4th & 1 at RUTG 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.6
    84% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:40RUTG 4th & 16 at RUTG 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:44ILL 4th & 7 at RUTG 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:36RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:46RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.1%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:38ILL 4th & 17 at RUTG 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:22RUTG 4th & 14 at ILL 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:22ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:34RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:04RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:59ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:15RUTG 4th & 2 at ILL 2, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.2%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:18RUTG Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:36ILL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:17ILL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:57RUTG Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:10ILL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:07ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
36.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
36.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 9 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
36.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 4 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
36.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
36.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
36.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Reggie Corbin ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+4
36.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 51 yds , Avery Young returns for 4 yds to the Rutgr 36 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Rutgr 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
36.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Jartavius Martin return for no gain to the Rutgr 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5264% → 63%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
36.4%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 5 yards to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
36.5%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+10
36.6%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
37.0%
Chase McLaughlin 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1537% → 42%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
37.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
37.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
37.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
37.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+8
37.2%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 8 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
37.5%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
37.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+13
37.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 13 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
37.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 4 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-5
37.6%
Blackshear, R. rush for 16 yards to the ILL11 (Martin,J.), PENALTY RU illegal formation 5 yards to the ILL32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+32
42.2%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 32 yds for a TD (Gavin Haggerty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2859% → 62%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
41.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 52 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
39.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Carmoni Green for 2 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
39.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 7 yds to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
40.1%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+3
40.6%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
39.7%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 6Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
39.7%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+3
38.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard AJ Bush Jr. fumbled, recovered by Illin AJ Bush Jr. , return for 3 yds (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
39.2%
Blackshear, R. rush for 3 yards to the RU33 (Watkins,Cameron), PENALTY RU holding (Cole, Tariq) 10 yards to the RU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+4
39.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 4 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 16
OWN 24
0
39.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 16
OWN 24
0
38.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
38.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the Illin 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:3861% → 60%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
39.3%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
39.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+11
39.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 11 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+13
39.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 13 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
38.0%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+15
37.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 15 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
37.4%
Trenard Davis pass incomplete to Mike Epstein, broken up by Saquan HamptonSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
38.0%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
38.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
40.0%
Chase McLaughlin 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
41.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-2
41.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
40.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Del'Shawn Phillips return for no gain to the Rutgr 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:5461% → 67%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
38.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Carmoni Green, broken up by Avery YoungSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
38.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 6 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+41
33.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 41 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
32.8%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.1%
Jonathan Hilliman run for no gain to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+15
32.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 15 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
32.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Jonathan HillimanSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
33.1%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete to Blackshear, R., PENALTY RU pass interference (Blackshear, R.) 15 yards to the RU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
32.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 43 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for no gain to the Illin 27 Carlos Sandy fumbled, recovered by Illin Carlos SandySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
22.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 73 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:3125% → 25%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
24.3%
Bo Melton run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
24.9%
Jonathan Hilliman run for no gain to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
24.6%
Jonathan Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:5281% → 73%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
19.5%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
19.6%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-10
19.8%
Bush,AJ pass incomplete to Mays,Sam, PENALTY ILL holding (Cerny,Jake) 10 yards to the RU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 17
OPP 39
0
26.0%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Carmoni GreenSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
27.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:2424% → 33%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
24.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daevon Robinson for 12 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
24.4%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
24.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 5 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
24.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 6 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
25.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 16 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
25.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
25.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 10 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
26.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 5 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+6
25.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 6 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
25.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 12 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
33.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 7 yds for a TD (Gavin Haggerty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1071% → 70%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
28.9%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 3 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
28.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Avery YoungSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+4
29.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:3828% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+22
28.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 22 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
29.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
29.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 11 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
30.3%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete to Robinson, D., PENALTY ILL pass interference (Martin,J.) 15 yards to the ILL25, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
31.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-6
31.5%
Artur Sitkowski run for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
29.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete, broken up by Owen Carney Jr.Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
25.5%
Gavin Haggerty 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
26.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+13
26.5%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 13 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
25.8%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
26.1%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-4
26.2%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Damon Hayes for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 10
OWN 48
+12
27.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds , Avery Young returns for 12 yds to the RUTGERS 40 RUTGERS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Rutgr 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
25.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Everett Wormley for 9 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+4
25.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
25.6%
Blackshear, R. rush for no gain to the RU23, PENALTY RU holding (Cole, Tariq) 10 yards to the RU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+2
25.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 18
OWN 15
0
25.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaih PachecoSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+15
24.3%
Sitkowski, A. pass incomplete to Blackshear, R., PENALTY ILL roughing passer (Pate,Deon) 15 yards to the RU30, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
26.0%
Hilliman, J. rush for no gain to the RU30, PENALTY RU holding (Anthony, Max) 10 yards to the RU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+7
25.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jonathan Hilliman for 7 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
25.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Travis VokolekSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+6
24.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 6 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
24.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 5:4277% → 95%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
23.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
22.8%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
23.2%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
22.2%
AJ Bush Jr. sacked by Mike Tverdov for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+14
23.7%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 14 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
21.7%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
50
+14
20.9%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
20.9%
Bush,AJ pass incomplete to Smalling,Ricky, PENALTY RU pass interference (Hayes, Damon) 15 yards to the RU21, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
20.2%
Carmoni Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+21
20.6%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 21 yds to the Rutgr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
20.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-8
18.7%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
5.4%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 11 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
9.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+4
9.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
9.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Travis Vokolek, broken up by Jake HansenSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
9.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
5.4%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-2
5.4%
AJ Bush Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+15
5.8%
Bush,AJ pass incomplete to Smalling,Ricky (Wharton, Isaiah), PENALTY RU pass interference (Wharton, Isaiah) 15 yards to the ILL38, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
5.0%
Bush,AJ pass complete to Stampley,D. for no gain to the ILL38, PENALTY ILL holding (Green,Carmoni) 10 yards to the ILL28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 20
OWN 28
-1
5.4%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 21
OWN 27
+5
5.5%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 5 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+4
5.8%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+57
5.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the RUTGERS 22 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:426% → 6%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
5.6%
Artur Sitkowski run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+8
6.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 8 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
6.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jonathan Hilliman for 7 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+9
6.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 9 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
6.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jonathan Hilliman for 6 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+13
7.0%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 13 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
7.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
7.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 8 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
6.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q4 8:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
6.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 2 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
5.9%
Justin Davidovicz 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
0.6%
Mike Epstein run for 41 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24INT
10 plays · 69 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
1.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Jonathan HillimanSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
1.1%
Jonathan Hilliman run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
1.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 14 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
1.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Bo Melton for 28 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
1.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Jonathan HillimanSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
1.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Shameen Jones for 15 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
1.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
1.5%
Artur Sitkowski run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 5 Artur Sitkowski fumbled,Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+27
1.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted Nate Hobbs return for 27 yds to the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
0.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
0.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
0.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
0.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 7 yds to the Illin 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:10
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 11 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q2 7:17
Reggie Corbin run for 73 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 0:57
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 7 yds for a TD (Gavin Haggerty KICK)
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com