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PSU

Penn State 63 at Illinois 24

ILL
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:34 · Chase McLaughlin 52 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior−13.4Home team on offense−32.3Score differential−19.1Garbage-time factor−13.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:47: M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 6 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +3.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:36: Trenard Davis pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 17 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +10.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:36: Miles Sanders run for 48 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:09: Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 7PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:49ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:09ILL 4th & 4 at PSU 37, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:47PSU 4th & 5 at ILL 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:25ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:03PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:37ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:04ILL 4th & 21 at ILL 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−3.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:34ILL 4th & 10 at PSU 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:12ILL 4th & 15 at PSU 48, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 9:17PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:16ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:52PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:11PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:47ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:36ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:36PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:53PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:09PSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:58PSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:24PSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:56PSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:5196% → 95%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+21
4.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 21 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
4.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 28 yds Jonathan Holland fumbled, forced by Dre Brown, recovered by Illin Michael Marchese , return for 11 yds to the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:565% → 5%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
4.7%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
4.8%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
4.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+22
5.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 54 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 22 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:2395% → 95%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
5.0%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+10
5.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 10 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
5.1%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+19
5.2%
Miles Sanders run for 19 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
5.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
5.4%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+7
5.5%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
5.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 5 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
5.4%
Miles Sanders run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:516% → 6%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
5.6%
Mike Epstein run for 8 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
5.8%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
5.8%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
5.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
5.8%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Sam Mays for 11 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
6.0%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
6.1%
M.J. Rivers II run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+3
6.3%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Daniel Barker for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+55
6.4%
Chase McLaughlin 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:1394% → 93%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
6.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 20 yds to the ILLINOIS 43 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
6.1%
Miles Sanders run for 12 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
6.2%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
6.3%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
6.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
6.7%
Jake Pinegar 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:147% → 9%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
7.0%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 12 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
7.1%
Mike Epstein run for 18 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
7.5%
M.J. Rivers II run for 10 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
7.7%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Trenard Davis for 19 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
7.7%
Mike Epstein run for 13 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0891% → 92%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.6%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
8.7%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
8.9%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
9.0%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
9.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+16
9.1%
Trace McSorley run for 16 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
9.0%
Trace McSorley run for 11 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
9.0%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+4
9.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 4 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
9.6%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
9.7%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Hamler, KJ, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Brown, Sydney) 12 yards to the ILLINOIS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q2 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.8%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:159% → 9%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
8.5%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
8.8%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
8.5%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Mike Epstein for 6 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
8.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:1091% → 94%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
8.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
8.8%
Miles Sanders run for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
8.5%
Miles Sanders run for 13 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
8.6%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
8.5%
Ricky Slade run for 10 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
8.6%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+12
8.8%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:187% → 12%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
6.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 15 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+51
7.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 51 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
7.7%
Rivers II, M.J. pass incomplete to Smalling, Ricky, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Reid, John) 7 yards to the PENNST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
7.7%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Daniel Barker for a loss of 4 yards Daniel Barker fumbled, forced by Jarvis Miller, recovered by Illin Sam MaysSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.5%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 6 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:2790% → 89%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+19
9.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 19 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
9.9%
Miles Sanders run for 7 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
9.6%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
9.6%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-2
9.6%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
10.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
10.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2311% → 12%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
10.9%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+11
11.1%
Mike Epstein run for 11 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
12.0%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Sam Mays for 5 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
11.9%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+9
11.7%
Mike Epstein run for 9 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
12.5%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+17
11.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 17 yds to the ILLINOIS 42 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (John Reid) to the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
11.3%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Delano Ware return for no gain to the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14END OF HALF
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:2213% → 16%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
13.2%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Mike Epstein for 13 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
13.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 12 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
14.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
14.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+42
15.6%
Chase McLaughlin 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1916% → 33%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
16.2%
M.J. Rivers II run for 12 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.6%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
16.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 1 yd to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+15
16.7%
Rivers II, M.J. pass incomplete to Green, Carmoni, PENALTY PENNST roughing passer (Brown, Cam) 15 yards to the PENNST44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
19.2%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+7
18.0%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 7 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+9
19.2%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Carmoni Green for 9 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
21.4%
M.J. Rivers II run for 1 yd to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+15
21.8%
Rivers II, M.J. pass incomplete to Green, Carmoni, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Castro-Fields, Tariq) 15 yards to the PENNST17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
32.7%
Trenard Davis pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 17 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5472% → 83%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
27.9%
Miles Sanders run for 10 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
28.2%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+19
28.9%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah Gay) to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
26.9%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+48
17.1%
Miles Sanders run for 48 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:2620% → 19%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
19.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Carmoni Green for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
20.8%
Rivers II, M.J. pass complete to Green, Carmoni for 7 yards to the ILLINOIS43, PENALTY ILLINOIS illegal block (Smalling, Ricky) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-5
19.7%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Robert Windsor and Ellis Brooks for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 25
OWN 21
+6
19.8%
M.J. Rivers II run for 6 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 19
OWN 27
-2
19.2%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Trenard Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 21
OWN 25
+8
19.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 43 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 8 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 60 yds · 6:0782% → 90%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
18.0%
Miles Sanders run for 15 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
17.7%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-5
17.7%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Bates) to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
18.0%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
16.9%
Ricky Slade run for 5 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
16.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 5 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
16.1%
Ricky Slade run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
17.3%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
16.1%
Sanders, Miles rush for 19 yards to the ILLINOIS2, PENALTY PENNST holding (McGovern, Connor) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+2
16.8%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 18
OPP 29
+15
17.6%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Polk, Brandon, PENALTY ILLINOIS illegal helmet contact (Hobbs, Nate) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
16.8%
Sanders, Miles pass complete to McSorley, Trace for 14 yards to the ILLINOIS0, PENALTY PENNST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ILLINOIS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+2
17.2%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+1
17.4%
Ricky Slade run for 1 yd to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+16
9.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2711% → 11%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
11.1%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
10.7%
M.J. Rivers II pass intercepted Jan Johnson return for no gain to the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
2.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21MISSED FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:264% → 3%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
4.2%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
3.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Sam Mays for 10 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.1%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Carmoni GreenSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
4.1%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Lou DorseySimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+20
3.7%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Daniel Barker for 20 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
4.3%
Trenard Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-14
3.8%
M.J. Rivers II run for a loss of 14 yards to the 50 yard line M.J. Rivers II fumbled, recovered by Illin Alex Palczewski , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 26
50
+16
3.2%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Carmoni Green for 16 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
3.4%
Chase McLaughlin 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:3297% → 100%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
2.6%
Ricky Slade run for 5 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+61
0.4%
Ricky Slade run for 61 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
0.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 16 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
0.4%
M.J. Rivers II run for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+13
0.4%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Carmoni Green for 13 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
0.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Ra'Von Bonner) to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 15
OPP 42
-4
0.3%
M.J. Rivers II run for 6 yds to the Illin 42 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Doug Kramer) to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 19
OWN 48
+4
0.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 15
OPP 48
0
0.3%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Caleb Reams ILLINOIS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 15
OPP 48
0
0.2%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Carmoni GreenSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 15
OPP 48
+2
0.2%
M.J. Rivers II run for 2 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
0.2%
Ricky Slade run for 7 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-10
0.2%
Sean Clifford sacked by Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+14
0.2%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Freiermuth, Pat, PENALTY ILLINOIS personal foul (DeGroot, Dawson) 14 yards to the ILLINOIS43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
0.2%
Ricky Slade run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 46 Ricky Slade fumbled, recovered by PnSt Ricky SladeSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+1
0.2%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+44
0.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 44 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Ricky Slade run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
0.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 15 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
0.1%
Matt Robinson run for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
0.1%
Matt Robinson run for no gain to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+28
0.1%
Matt Robinson pass intercepted Ellis Brooks return for 28 yds to the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
0.1%
Journey Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
Journey Brown run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Dre Brown run for no gain to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
0.1%
Matt Robinson run for 9 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Caleb ReamsSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
0.1%
Matt Robinson run for 4 yds to the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:36
Trenard Davis pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 17 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q3 8:36
Miles Sanders run for 48 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q4 14:09
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com