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USF

South Florida 25 at Illinois 19

ILL
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Soldier Field
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:39 · Coby Weiss 40 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior−12.2Home team on offense+9.5Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score differential+3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:48: Chase McLaughlin 46 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +4.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Chase McLaughlin 53 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +4.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:56: Chase McLaughlin 41 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +14.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 14 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +22.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 2:24: Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 50 yds for a TD (Blake Barnett pass to Randall St. Felix for Two-Point Conversion) — USF win probability +53.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 11USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:30USF 4th & 22 at ILL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:54USF 4th & 5 at ILL 26, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:35ILL 4th & 4 at USF 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:35USF 4th & 9 at USF 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:49ILL 4th & 8 at USF 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:48ILL 4th & 8 at USF 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:48USF 4th & 4 at USF 44, down 6
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:23USF 4th & 14 at ILL 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:23ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 33, up 6
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 13 at ILL 37, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:09ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 17, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:39USF 4th & 14 at ILL 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−10.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:56ILL 4th & 3 at USF 24, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%−1.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−11.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−5.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:10USF 4th & 8 at USF 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:51ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 38, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−4.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:47USF 4th & 7 at ILL 9, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−4.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−17.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:47ILL 4th & 10 at USF 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−2.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:20ILL 4th & 4 at USF 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−8.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−10.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:54ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:52USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:53USF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:24USF Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.5 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.8%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
21.4%
Team run for no gain to the Illin 20 Team fumbled, recovered by Illin M.J. Rivers II , return for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+7
21.4%
Mike Epstein run for 7 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 27
0
21.4%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Dele HardingSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+18
21.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds , Tyre McCants returns for 18 yds to the Illin 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
22.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+18
22.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 18 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
22.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
22.0%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
22.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Jordan Cronkrite, broken up by Jamal WoodsSimilar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 7
OPP 23
-15
22.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 22
OPP 38
0
22.2%
Trent Schneider punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5423% → 25%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
23.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 5 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+32
23.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 32 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
25.0%
Mike Epstein run for 43 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0276% → 76%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
24.5%
Tyre McCants run for 11 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
24.4%
Blake Barnett run for 7 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+12
24.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 12 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
24.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+10
24.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive holding (James Knight) to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
24.1%
Elijah Mack run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+2
24.0%
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
24.2%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+7
24.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 7 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
24.0%
Trevon Sands run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+14
24.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 14 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:1725% → 29%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
25.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+10
25.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 10 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+20
25.5%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 20 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
25.7%
M.J. Rivers II run for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
25.6%
M.J. Rivers II run for 6 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
25.6%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+5
25.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal participation (5 Yards) to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
25.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, roughing passer (Khalid McGee) to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
25.8%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
25.8%
M.J. Rivers II run for 1 yd to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
25.6%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
28.6%
Chase McLaughlin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.5%
Blake Barnett run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.6%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
28.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete, broken up by Bobby RoundtreeSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
29.2%
Trent Schneider punt for 31 yds, downed at the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
29.5%
Mike Epstein run for 8 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
29.8%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
29.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Daniel Barker for 2 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
29.8%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Ricky Smalling for no gain to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
29.5%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
28.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8INT
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:3070% → 70%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
30.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 8 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+5
30.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
30.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 23 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
29.6%
Blake Barnett pass intercepted Jartavius Martin return for no gain to the Illin 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4332% → 37%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
31.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
31.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 7 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
32.0%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+13
32.1%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Sam Mays for 13 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
32.4%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-1
32.4%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
31.8%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Sam Mays, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
36.5%
Chase McLaughlin 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.0%
Elijah Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
34.6%
Elijah Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
34.4%
Elijah Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
34.3%
Terrence Horne run for 4 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-5
33.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Josh Black) to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+6
34.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 6 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+1
34.1%
Blake Barnett run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
35.0%
Jake Stone punt for 41 yds, downed at the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11FUMBLE
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:0040% → 42%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
39.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
39.6%
M.J. Rivers II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+32
38.7%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Mike Epstein for 32 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
41.4%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+1
41.6%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+14
41.0%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 14 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
41.8%
M.J. Rivers II run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-1
41.8%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 31 Reggie Corbin fumbled, recovered by SFla Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:0659% → 55%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
40.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 24 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
38.7%
Blake Barnett run for 9 yds to the Illin 36 Blake Barnett fumbled, forced by James Knight, recovered by SFla Blake BarnettSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+3
38.5%
Blake Barnett run for 3 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
37.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+5
37.5%
Dave Small run for 5 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
37.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+5
39.2%
Tyre McCants run for 5 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 25
OPP 38
+7
39.8%
Dave Small run for 7 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 13
OPP 26
-1
40.3%
Tyre McCants run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
45.3%
Coby Weiss 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
47.1%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
46.7%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+4
45.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Mike Epstein for 4 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 4
OWN 33
-7
45.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 8 , Tyre McCants returns for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 26 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14INT
5 plays · 58 yds · 0:0054% → 60%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
45.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+5
45.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
45.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 12 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+34
44.5%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 34 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
40.0%
Blake Barnett pass intercepted Del'Shawn Phillips return for 34 yds to the SFla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FG
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0752% → 53%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
52.0%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Daniel Barker for 11 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+53
56.3%
Chase McLaughlin 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
53.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
52.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 24 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
50.2%
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+15
49.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 15 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
48.7%
Blake Barnett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 37
0
50.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
51.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell Wilcox, broken up by Bobby RoundtreeSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
53.7%
Jake Stone punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.3%
M.J. Rivers II run for 10 yds to the Illin 30 ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal block (Sam Mays) to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
56.3%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
55.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-2
54.7%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Mike Epstein for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+1
53.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 53 yds , Tyre McCants returns for 1 yd to the SFla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 3:5143% → 34%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
57.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Josh Black) to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+10
57.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 10 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+8
56.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 8 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
55.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+9
55.2%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 9 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
54.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+20
54.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 20 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
53.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 13
OPP 22
0
53.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 13
OPP 22
-5
56.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 18
OPP 27
+9
57.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 9 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 9
OPP 18
-5
57.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+40
66.3%
Coby Weiss 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:4366% → 80%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
65.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
65.2%
Dominic Stampley run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+9
65.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 9 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
67.3%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Nico Sawtelle for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+19
65.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 19 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
67.7%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Khalid McGee) to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
68.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Doug Kramer) to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+2
67.1%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 18
OPP 39
0
67.0%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Mike EpsteinSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 18
OPP 39
+15
65.5%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Mike Epstein for 15 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
79.9%
Chase McLaughlin 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0323% → 50%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
76.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 10 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
75.9%
Blake Barnett sacked by Dele Harding for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+8
77.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 8 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+17
76.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 17 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
74.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
74.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 9 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
73.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
72.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
72.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 19 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
49.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 14 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0061% → 58%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
61.3%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Reggie Corbin for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+12
60.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 12 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-7
60.6%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Greg Reaves and Kevin Kegler for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
57.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 54 yds, downed at the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
59.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+11
58.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 11 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
58.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
59.2%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
61.3%
Jake Stone punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
67.4%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Reggie Corbin for no gain to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
66.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+3
66.7%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
66.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24FG
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:0838% → 41%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
62.2%
Tyre McCants run for 13 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+55
60.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 55 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
53.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the Illin 11Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
53.0%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+2
56.0%
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
56.8%
Coby Weiss 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+23
59.2%
Jake Stone punt for 53 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for 23 yds to the ILLINOIS 42 ILLINOIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ayo Shogbonyo) to the Illin 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
61.1%
Mike Epstein run for 14 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
61.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 11 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
64.8%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 5
50
+1
65.8%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+6
65.0%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
66.3%
M.J. Rivers II run for 5 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-5
66.3%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
64.2%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
60.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Tyre McCants at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 1:1735% → 90%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
65.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+17
65.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 17 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
63.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 25 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
57.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (William Atterbury) to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
60.3%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
61.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCants, broken up by Tony AdamsSimilar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-5
63.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Marcus Norman) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 20
50
+50
10.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 50 yds for a TD (Blake Barnett pass to Randall St. Felix for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27Uncategorized
19 plays · 50 yds · 2:1825% → 13%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.6%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
25.1%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Daniel Barker for 9 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
26.4%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Kirk Livingstone for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+8
17.4%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Daniel Barker for 8 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+10
20.0%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Trenard Davis for 10 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
23.0%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Mike Epstein for 7 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+5
26.4%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
27.1%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Kevin Kegler for a loss of 10 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+16
16.9%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 16 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
23.6%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+9
14.8%
M.J. Rivers II pass complete to Trenard Davis for 9 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
22.4%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
20.0%
M.J. Rivers II sacked by Tyrone Barber for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
12.5%
M.J. Rivers II pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:24
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 50 yds for a TD (Blake Barnett pass to Randall St. Felix for Two-Point Conversion)
-53.4
TD · Q4 14:53
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 14 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)
-22.8
FG · Q3 2:56
Chase McLaughlin 41 yd FG GOOD
+14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com