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WIU

Western Illinois 14 at Illinois 34

ILL
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadWIU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreWIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:48 · Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds , Steve McShane returns for a loss of 3 yards to the WIll 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+10.6Home team on offense+10.3Score differential+1.5Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:14: M.J. Rivers pass complete to Edwin Carter for 18 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +7.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:16: M.J. Rivers pass complete to Edwin Carter for 16 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +6.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q3 7:22: Adam Fellner punt blocked by blocked by Stanley Green return for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +8.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:23: Sean McGuire pass complete to Tony Tate for 49 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK) ILLINOIS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined — WIU win probability +10.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: WIU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 12:20: Chase McLaughlin 46 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +6.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10WIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:07ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20WIU 4th & 14 at ILL 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    51.0%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:58ILL 4th & 10 at WIU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:31WIU 4th & 12 at WIU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ILL 4th & 16 at WIU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:16WIU 4th & 6 at WIU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:14WIU 4th & 19 at WIU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−2.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:34WIU 4th & 12 at WIU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:16ILL 4th & 14 at WIU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:16WIU 4th & 5 at WIU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:48ILL 4th & 11 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:22WIU 4th & 2 at WIU 16, down 10
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:23ILL 4th & 9 at WIU 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    76.2%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:20ILL 4th & 4 at WIU 28, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−5.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:22WIU 4th & 10 at ILL 17, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:53ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 13, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:37ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 18, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:16WIU 4th & 7 at ILL 35, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:46ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 44, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:07WIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:14ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:16ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:23WIU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:22ILL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WIUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5326% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.1%
Steve McShane run for 7 yds to the WIll 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
74.1%
Steve McShane run for 8 yds to the WIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
74.1%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Steve McShane for 17 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
74.1%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 5 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+18
74.1%
Tony Tate run for 18 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
72.4%
Sean McGuire pass complete to George Wahee for 20 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
72.7%
AJ Bush pass complete to Trenard Davis for 5 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-8
72.9%
AJ Bush sacked by Pete Swenson and Quentin Moon for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+3
72.6%
AJ Bush run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
72.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds , Steve McShane returns for no gain to the WIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
71.7%
Max Norris run for 2 yds to the WIll 21Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+6
71.7%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Tony Tate for 6 yds to the WIll 27Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
71.6%
Sean McGuire run for 3 yds to the WIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
71.6%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Tony Tate, broken up by Jartavius MartinSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 0
+31
71.2%
Tony Tate run for 8 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (23 Yards) to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
71.2%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Steve McShane for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+2
71.3%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
71.3%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Steve McShane, broken up by Jamal WoodsSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 9
OPP 31
-5
71.5%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
71.7%
Sean McGuire punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
69.7%
AJ Bush pass complete to Trenard Davis for 8 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
70.1%
AJ Bush run for 2 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
69.8%
AJ Bush pass complete to Sam Mays for 6 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
70.2%
AJ Bush run for 1 yd to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
70.6%
AJ Bush pass complete to Trenard Davis for no gain to the WIll 48Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
70.5%
AJ Bush pass incomplete to Trenard DavisSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
70.1%
AJ Bush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
69.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:3232% → 33%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
68.5%
Steve McShane run for 11 yds to the WIll 24 WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Steve McShane) to the WIll 12Similar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 11
OWN 12
+2
68.5%
Max Norris run for 2 yds to the WIll 14Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+8
68.6%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Isaiah LeSure for 8 yds to the WIll 22Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+14
68.5%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 14 yds to the WIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
68.0%
Clint Ratkovich run for a loss of 2 yards to the WIll 34Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
68.5%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for no gain to the WIll 34Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
68.7%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Tony TateSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+14
67.0%
Adam Fellner punt for 40 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for 14 yds to the Illin 48 ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal block (Sydney Brown) to the Illin 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 49 yds · 1:3167% → 65%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
66.6%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+5
66.5%
AJ Bush run for 5 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+29
66.2%
AJ Bush pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 14 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST down WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
67.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the WIll 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-10
67.3%
Corbin,Reggie rush for no gain to the WIU48 (Baxter, Riggs), PENALTY ILL holding (Roberts,Austin) 10 yards to the ILL42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+7
66.0%
M.J. Rivers run for 7 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+12
66.0%
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Sam Mays for 12 yds to the WIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
67.3%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the WIll 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
67.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 11 yds to the WIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
68.0%
M.J. Rivers run for 4 yds to the WIll 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
68.0%
M.J. Rivers pass incomplete to Trenard DavisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-10
67.3%
Rivers,M.J. pass incomplete to Mays,Sam, PENALTY ILL holding (Green,Kendrick) 10 yards to the WIU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 34
0
66.3%
M.J. Rivers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 34
0
65.4%
Chase McLaughlin punt for 32 yds, downed at the WIll 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
63.9%
Max Norris run for 5 yds to the WIll 7Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+1
64.0%
Max Norris run for 1 yd to the WIll 8Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+3
64.3%
Sean McGuire pass complete to George Wahee for 3 yds to the WIll 11Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
64.8%
Adam Fellner punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:5564% → 73%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
64.1%
M.J. Rivers run for 10 yds to the WIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.0%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the WIll 35Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+16
65.0%
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Sam Mays for 16 yds to the WIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
65.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the WIll 18Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
72.7%
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Edwin Carter for 18 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
67.5%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Steve McShane for a loss of 4 yards to the WIll 21Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
67.9%
Steve McShane run for 1 yd to the WIll 22Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-6
68.5%
Sean McGuire sacked by Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 6 yards to the WIll 16Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
69.2%
Adam Fellner punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 31 , Carlos Sandy returns for no gain to the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 4:5871% → 80%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
70.5%
PENALTY WIU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY ILL personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+38
70.7%
Mike Epstein run for 38 yds to the WIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
73.2%
M.J. Rivers run for 3 yds to the WIll 28Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
73.2%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the WIll 25Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+5
72.4%
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Mike Epstein for 5 yds to the WIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
73.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the WIll 16Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
80.1%
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Edwin Carter for 16 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:4222% → 21%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Tony Tate, broken up by Bobby RoundtreeSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
78.6%
Sean McGuire sacked by Isaiah Gay for a loss of 9 yards to the WIll 16Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+7
79.2%
Sean McGuire pass complete to John Brunner for 7 yds to the WIll 23Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+3
79.4%
Adam Fellner punt for 52 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for 3 yds to the Illin 26 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Sydney Brown) to the Illin 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
76.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+7
76.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
76.9%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 2:4477% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
77.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 12 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.5%
M.J. Rivers pass incomplete to Trenard DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
77.8%
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Trenard Davis for 15 yds to the WIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
78.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 7 yds to the WIll 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+1
78.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the WIll 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
78.3%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive offside (Pete Swenson) to the WIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
79.1%
M.J. Rivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the WIll 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 36
0
78.0%
M.J. Rivers pass incomplete to Justice WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 36
0
77.2%
M.J. Rivers pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+54
80.0%
Chase McLaughlin 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.8%
Steve McShane run for 2 yds to the WIll 27Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
80.6%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Steve McShane for 3 yds to the WIll 30Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
81.0%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Tony TateSimilar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
82.0%
Adam Fellner punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the Illin 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
81.8%
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Sam Mays for 8 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+16
82.2%
Mike Epstein run for 16 yds to the WIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
83.0%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the WIll 45Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
83.1%
M.J. Rivers pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-5
82.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 11
50
0
81.8%
M.J. Rivers run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 11
50
-3
80.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds , Steve McShane returns for a loss of 3 yards to the WIll 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 16PUNT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3418% → 8%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
82.1%
Max Norris run for no gain to the WIll 8Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
82.3%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Laquay Brown, broken up by Stanley GreenSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+8
83.1%
Sean McGuire pass complete to John Brunner for 8 yds to the WIll 16Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 2
OWN 16
+2
91.8%
Adam Fellner punt blocked by blocked by Stanley Green return for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:598% → 20%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.6%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Steve McShane for 9 yds to the WIll 34Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+17
90.9%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Steve McShane for 2 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, targeting (Cameron Watkins) to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
80.1%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Tony Tate for 49 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK) ILLINOIS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
83.2%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+14
83.0%
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Jordan Holmes for 14 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
83.5%
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 1 yd to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+26
83.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 26 yds to the WIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
84.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 5 yds to the WIll 39Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-5
84.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal procedure (Doug Kramer) to the WIll 44Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
84.7%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the WIll 43Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
83.9%
M.J. Rivers pass incomplete to Dominic StampleySimilar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
82.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 34 yds, downed at the WIll 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:5316% → 18%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
84.0%
Steve McShane run for 1 yd to the WIll 10Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+31
84.0%
Sean McGuire pass complete to George Wahee for 31 yds to the WIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
82.3%
Tony Tate run for 15 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
81.1%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Tony Tate for 13 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
80.0%
Steve McShane run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+17
82.5%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Isaiah LeSure for 17 yds Isaiah LeSure fumbled, forced by Kendall Smith, recovered by Illin Del'Shawn Phillips , return for 13 yds to the Illin 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:3086% → 94%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+38
86.3%
Mike Epstein run for 38 yds to the WIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
87.8%
Rivers,M.J. pass complete to Mays,Sam for 20 yards to the WIU14 (Rowe, Xavier), PENALTY ILL ineligible downfield on pass (Green,Kendrick) 5 yards to the WIU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+1
87.4%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the WIll 38Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+7
87.3%
M.J. Rivers run for 7 yds to the WIll 31Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+3
87.0%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the WIll 28Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
93.5%
Chase McLaughlin 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+42
91.5%
Sean McGuire pass intercepted Michael Marchese return for 42 yds to the WIll 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3795% → 99%
Q4 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
94.5%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the WIll 3Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 64 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
98.7%
Sean McGuire pass complete to George Wahee for 25 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.6%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Tony Tate, broken up by Michael MarcheseSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
98.6%
Sean McGuire sacked by Jamal Woods for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+17
98.7%
Sean McGuire pass complete to John Brunner for 17 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
98.5%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to John Brunner, broken up by Jamal WoodsSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
98.5%
Sean McGuire pass complete to John Brunner for 15 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.4%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to George WaheeSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
98.4%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Steve McShaneSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
98.6%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Tony TateSimilar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+9
98.7%
Sean McGuire pass complete to George Wahee for 9 yds to the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:3999% → 99%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the Illin 8Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
98.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the Illin 8Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 10
OWN 8
-4
98.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Kendrick Green) to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 14
OWN 4
+9
98.8%
M.J. Rivers run for 9 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
99.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WIll 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
99.2%
Sean McGuire pass intercepted Nolan Bernat return for no gain to the Illin 49 ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (11 Yards) to the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 5 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+2
99.2%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
99.2%
M.J. Rivers run for no gain to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
99.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 51 yds, downed at the WIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
99.3%
Connor Sampson pass complete to George Wahee for 16 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Calvin Avery) to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to John Brunner, broken up by Dylan WyattSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Xavier RoweSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.3%
Connor Sampson pass complete to Victavious Johnson for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
99.3%
Connor Sampson pass incomplete to Izaiah FullerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3599% → 100%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.4%
Jakari Norwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
99.4%
Matt Robinson run for 5 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
99.4%
Matt Robinson run for 5 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
99.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds , Steve McShane returns for 3 yds to the WIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.4%
Larry Harleston run for 3 yds to the WIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:23
Sean McGuire pass complete to Tony Tate for 49 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK) ILLINOIS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined
-10.8
PUNT · Q3 7:22
Adam Fellner punt blocked by blocked by Stanley Green return for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q2 7:14
M.J. Rivers pass complete to Edwin Carter for 18 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com