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Notre Dame 24 at USC 17

USC
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:52 · Reid Budrovich punt for 41 yds , Chris Finke returns for 7 yds to the NDame 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior−13.2Home team on offense−6.9Garbage-time factor−3.8Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:20: Chris Finke 24 Yd pass from Ian Book (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +10.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:55: Dexter Williams 52 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +13.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. SACK · Q4 7:44: JT Daniels sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 11 — USC win probability +6.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:09: Tony Jones Jr. 51 Yd pass from Ian Book (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +8.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:48: Tyler Vaughns 20 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Michael Brown Kick) — USC win probability +14.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:38ND 4th & 8 at USC 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:47ND 4th & 11 at ND 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:12USC 4th & 1 at ND 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:51USC 4th & 8 at ND 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:42ND 4th & 4 at USC 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:01USC 4th & 2 at USC 47, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:54ND 4th & 4 at ND 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:28USC 4th & 1 at USC 35, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:03USC 4th & 14 at ND 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:26ND 4th & 10 at USC 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:52USC 4th & 4 at USC 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:57ND 4th & 3 at USC 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−3.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:07ND 4th & 13 at USC 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−2.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−9.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:46USC 4th & 8 at USC 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:53USC 4th & 18 at USC 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−3.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:26USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:20ND Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:55ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:09ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.8
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:48USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:2116% → 18%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
15.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
15.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
16.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 10 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
16.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 23 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
16.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
16.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 3 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+17
17.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 17 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
18.3%
Vavae Malepeai 14 Yd Run (Michael Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:4082% → 81%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
18.1%
Dexter Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
18.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
18.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Alize Mack, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
18.7%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
19.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
19.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FUMBLE
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:5720% → 25%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
19.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+11
19.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
20.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-6
20.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (Toa Lobendahn) to the USC 16Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+8
20.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+8
21.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
22.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+8
22.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
23.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+6
24.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
24.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 10 yds Michael Pittman Jr. fumbled, forced by Troy Pride Jr., recovered by NDame Troy Pride Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3977% → 74%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
23.5%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
23.4%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-8
24.0%
Ian Book sacked by Palaie Gaoteote IV for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+22
25.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 52 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 22 yds to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:4826% → 32%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
26.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 13 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
26.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 13 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
27.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-9
28.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 1 yd to the NDame 33 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (Toa Lobendahn) to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+4
28.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+12
28.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 12 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
28.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
30.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
31.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
31.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
32.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 2 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
32.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
32.2%
Michael Brown 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:0267% → 64%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.6%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
32.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for 18 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
32.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
32.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 5 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+7
32.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for 7 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
32.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
33.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 15
50
+11
35.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 11 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
36.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris Finke, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3037% → 39%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
37.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+4
38.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+17
38.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NOTREDAME 22 USC Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Reuben Peters) to the NDame 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:1561% → 69%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
38.8%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+3
40.0%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+18
41.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 18 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
39.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+11
41.1%
Ian Book run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
40.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
40.3%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the USC 34Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+9
42.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 9 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
41.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the USC 24Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
31.0%
Chris Finke 24 Yd pass from Ian Book (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 70 yds · 1:0835% → 40%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
35.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
35.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Aca'Cedric WareSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+35
34.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 35 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
38.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 8 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 2
OPP 36
-5
38.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Erik Krommenhoek) to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+12
38.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
39.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 14 yds Amon-Ra St. Brown fumbled, forced by Alohi Gilman, recovered by NDame Donte VaughnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · 83 yds · 0:5064% → 65%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
35.6%
Ian Book sacked by Marlon Tuipulotu for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 13Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+15
36.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 15 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
35.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 12 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
34.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 20 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+38
34.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 38 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5763% → 60%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.1%
Dexter Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
36.3%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
38.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
39.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 59 yds, downed at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1740% → 41%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
39.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
39.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Aca'Cedric WareSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+13
38.6%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Pittman Jr., Michael, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Bracy, TaRiq) 13 yards to the USC26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
40.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
40.1%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
39.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
40.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:2461% → 74%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
39.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 15 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
25.6%
Dexter Williams 52 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:3629% → 28%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
28.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+28
29.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 28 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
32.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-5
33.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Austin Jackson) to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
33.6%
Markese Stepp run for 9 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
35.5%
Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-10
35.9%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Pittman Jr., Michael, PENALTY USC holding (Lobendahn, Toa) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 14
OPP 39
0
32.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
30.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Te'von ConeySimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
28.2%
Reid Budrovich punt for 27 yds, downed at the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:3372% → 71%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
28.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Dexter WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+23
28.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 23 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
27.5%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+28
27.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 28 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Dexter WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
25.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael Young, broken up by Isaiah LangleySimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
26.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
29.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2430% → 26%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for no gain to the USC 20Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
28.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
28.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+7
25.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 41 yds , Chris Finke returns for 7 yds to the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:3977% → 78%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
23.5%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to Boykin, Miles, PENALTY USC pass interference (Marshall, Iman) 15 yards to the USC45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
22.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
22.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Nic WeisharSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
23.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+12
25.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for 12 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
22.4%
Chris Finke run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 27Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 11
OPP 27
-2
22.8%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
24.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+46
21.7%
Justin Yoon 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 4:1223% → 22%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
23.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
22.6%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
22.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-5
24.4%
Daniels, JT pass complete to Vaughns, Tyler for 16 yards to the NOTREDAME45, PENALTY USC ineligible downfield on pass (St. Brown, Amon-Ra) 5 yards to the USC34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
21.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 10 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
24.2%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
24.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
24.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
23.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
21.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19INT
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0580% → 86%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
19.8%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+22
20.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for 22 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
17.0%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+15
15.6%
Dexter Williams run for 15 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
14.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 16 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
13.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for no gain to the USC 20Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-2
13.7%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5120% → 16%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
20.3%
JT Daniels sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 11Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+10
19.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Devon Williams for 10 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-9
17.3%
JT Daniels sacked by Jerry Tillery for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 12Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+58
15.8%
Reid Budrovich punt for 48 yds NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (TaRiq Bracy) to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2686% → 98%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
13.7%
Ian Book run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
13.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles Boykin, broken up by Isaiah LangleySimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+16
13.9%
Ian Book run for 16 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
11.0%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
10.7%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+51
2.1%
Tony Jones Jr. 51 Yd pass from Ian Book (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:123% → 17%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
3.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
3.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
50
+11
3.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
2.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Markese Stepp for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+12
3.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
3.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Drue TranquillSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
3.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. Brown, broken up by Nick ColemanSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
17.1%
Tyler Vaughns 20 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Michael Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23Uncategorized
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0795% → 95%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 14
50
-2
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:48
Tyler Vaughns 20 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Michael Brown Kick)
+14.1
TD · Q3 10:55
Dexter Williams 52 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
-13.8
TD · Q2 2:20
Chris Finke 24 Yd pass from Ian Book (Justin Yoon Kick)
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com