2018 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2018 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreWASH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:06 · Jake Browning run for 1 yd to the WshSt 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:37: Myles Gaskin run for 5 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +7.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:33: James Williams run for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +13.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:40: Aaron Fuller pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 22 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry PAT BLOCKED) — WASH win probability +14.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:44: James Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 12:30: Myles Gaskin run for 80 yds for a TD (S. Ahmed Run For Two-point Conversion) WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined — WASH win probability +19.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 14:04WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snapGo for it59.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.5%average punt
- Q1 2:51WSU 4th & 1 at WASH 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.0%71% to convertField goal59.4%−0.686% to makePunt57.5%−2.5average punt
- Q2 12:16WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt51.4%−2.0average punt
- Q2 10:32WSU 4th & 7 at WASH 44, down 7Close callPunted · 51.8% before the snapGo for it51.5%37% to convertField goal50.2%−1.327% to makePuntTheir call51.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:15WSU 4th & 4 at WASH 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.8%48% to convertField goal34.6%−0.256% to makePunt33.2%−1.5average punt
- Q3 10:03WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 44, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it31.9%−0.837% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.7%average punt
- Q3 3:15WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 31, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it59.9%−1.748% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.7%average punt
- Q3 0:53WASH 4th & 17 at WSU 35, up 5Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsPunted · 61.4% before the snapGo for it60.2%−2.815% to convertField goal63.0%45% to makePuntTheir call61.1%−1.9average punt
- Q4 14:04WSU 4th & 4 at WSU 44, down 5Close callPunted · 38.8% before the snapGo for it39.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:47WSU 4th & 15 at WSU 41, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q4 2:06WASH 4th & 1 at WSU 28, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.5%71% to convertField goal95.6%−0.960% to makePunt93.5%−2.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 0:08WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.7%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:37WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.5%97% to makeGo for two60.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:33WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.6%97% to makeGo for two41.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:40WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call67.5%97% to makeGo for two67.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:44WSU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick43.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call42.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:30WASH Touchdown, up 11 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick81.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call81.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5252% → 52%
Q1 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
51.7%
Oscar Draguicevich punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wash 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2INT12 plays · 55 yds · 5:4448% → 49%
Q1 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+12
51.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Ty Jones for 12 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+5
51.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 5 yds to the WshSt 21Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+18
51.4%
Jake Browning pass intercepted Skyler Thomas return for 18 yds to the WshSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3FUMBLE12 plays · 59 yds · 5:1553% → 54%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
52.5%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Levi Onwuzurike) to the WshSt 23Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+22
52.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 22 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
53.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 6 yds to the Wash 39Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+18
53.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 18 yds to the Wash 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
54.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 8 yds to the Wash 13Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-5
54.1%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Wash 18Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 1
OPP 12
-11
53.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Wash 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Wash Ben Burr-KirvenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD6 plays · 77 yds · 2:3247% → 55%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+48
51.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 48 yds to the WshSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5PUNT13 plays · 34 yds · 4:2947% → 46%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
46.5%
Minshew, Gardner pass complete to Harris, Travell for no gain to the WASHST22, PENALTY WASHST face mask (Martin, Davontavean) 11 yards to the WASHST11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+4
46.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 4 yds to the WshSt 15Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+15
45.6%
Minshew, Gardner pass incomplete to Martin, Davontavean, PENALTY WASHINGTON pass interference (Miller, Jordan) 15 yards to the WASHST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHST.Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
47.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 3 yds to the WshSt 43Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
47.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 5 yds to the WshSt 48Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
47.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 48Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+4
46.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 4 yds to the Wash 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:4355% → 69%
WSUDrive 7TD14 plays · 49 yds · 4:3734% → 45%
Q2 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
33.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 4 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+5
33.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
33.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 40Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+7
30.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 7 yds to the Wash 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
31.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 6 yds to the Wash 17Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
31.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 1 yd to the Wash 16Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+5
30.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 5 yds to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1345% → 43%
WASHDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1062% → 70%
Q3 14:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-2
38.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 19Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+59
39.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 59 yds to the WshSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
25.0%
Aaron Fuller pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 22 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:1732% → 29%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
32.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 7 yds to the WshSt 37Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
32.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 4 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-12
30.9%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Greg Gaines for a loss of 12 yards to the WshSt 35 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Gardner Minshew) to the WshSt 35Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+9
28.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 9 yds to the WshSt 44Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
28.8%
Oscar Draguicevich punt for 44 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for no gain to the Wash 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12FUMBLE6 plays · 8 yds · 2:5870% → 74%
Q3 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+32
29.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 32 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
26.0%
Gaskin, Myles rush for 3 yards to the WASHINGTON48, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding 10 yards to the WASHINGTON38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-4
25.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for a loss of 4 yards Andre Baccellia fumbled, recovered by WashSimilar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 15
OWN 40
-17
26.3%
Jake Browning sacked by Willie Taylor III for a loss of 17 yards to the Wash 23 Jake Browning fumbled, forced by Willie Taylor III, recovered by WshSt Dillon Sherman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13TD5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5132% → 46%
WASHDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1063% → 61%
WSUDrive 15INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:1239% → 39%
WASHDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2768% → 63%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
31.6%
Gaskin, Myles rush for 8 yards to the WASHST20, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding 10 yards to the WASHST38, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 24 yds · 1:4338% → 36%
WASHDrive 18TD3 plays · 89 yds · 1:2566% → 88%
Q4 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+80
12.3%
Myles Gaskin run for 80 yds for a TD (S. Ahmed Run For Two-point Conversion) WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 3:2518% → 11%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
17.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 6 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+7
17.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 7 yds to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-5
16.3%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Joe Tryon for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 43Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+3
14.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 3 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
11.3%
Oscar Draguicevich punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20Uncategorized15 plays · 76 yds · 8:2992% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:30
Myles Gaskin run for 80 yds for a TD (S. Ahmed Run For Two-point Conversion) WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined
-19.6
TD · Q3 4:44
James Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+15.3
TD · Q3 12:40
Aaron Fuller pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 22 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry PAT BLOCKED)
-14.2