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UTAH

Utah 30 at Colorado 7

COLO
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:42 · Donovan Lee run for 5 yds to the Colo 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:04: Travon McMillian run for 13 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +6.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:54: Jason Shelley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +7.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:40: Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the Colo 29 — COLO win probability +5.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:57: Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 47 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +15.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:50: Armand Shyne run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +12.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:26COLO 4th & 20 at COLO 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:31UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:12COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:10UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:22UTAH 4th & 10 at COLO 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:48COLO 4th & 19 at COLO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:26UTAH 4th & 5 at COLO 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.8
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:40COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:59UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:55COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:37UTAH 4th & 4 at COLO 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−10.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:37COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−3.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:57COLO 4th & 20 at COLO 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−3.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:50COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 28, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:43UTAH 4th & 5 at COLO 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−4.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:43COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 27, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:09UTAH 4th & 8 at COLO 33, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:41UTAH 4th & 8 at COLO 39, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:41COLO 4th & 2 at UTAH 38, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:51UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 39, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:04COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:54UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:57UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:50UTAH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTAHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
32.6%
Armand Shyne run for 1 yd to the Utah 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+2
32.6%
Armand Shyne run for 2 yds to the Utah 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
32.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Demari SimpkinsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
32.6%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt , Ronnie Blackmon returns for no gain to the 50 yard line Ronnie Blackmon fumbled, , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
50
-3
33.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 13
OWN 47
-2
33.3%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 15
OWN 45
-5
33.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 20
OWN 40
+3
33.2%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds , Britain Covey returns for 3 yds to the Utah 43 UTAH Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the Utah 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
34.1%
Armand Shyne run for 3 yds to the Utah 12Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+3
34.1%
Armand Shyne run for 3 yds to the Utah 15Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
34.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
34.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
34.7%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
35.0%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
35.0%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for no gain to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-4
34.7%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+3
34.5%
Alex Kinney punt for 48 yds , Britain Covey returns for 3 yds to the Utah 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
35.4%
Jason Shelley run for 4 yds to the Utah 19Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
35.3%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+8
35.6%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 8 yds to the Utah 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
35.3%
Armand Shyne run for 4 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
35.2%
TJ Green run for 4 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
35.1%
Jason Shelley run for 3 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
35.0%
Armand Shyne run for 1 yd to the Utah 39Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
35.0%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
35.3%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Demari SimpkinsSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
35.6%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:4337% → 44%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+29
36.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 14 yds to the Utah 44 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, targeting (Chase Hansen) to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
37.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
37.9%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Utah 40Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+10
37.6%
Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Shenault, Lavis, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Guidry, Javelin) 10 yards to the UTAH30, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
38.1%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the Utah 27Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
38.1%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Utah 27Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+14
37.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 14 yds to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
44.0%
Travon McMillian run for 13 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:3458% → 54%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
42.4%
Armand Shyne run for 2 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+18
42.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 18 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
41.7%
Armand Shyne run for 4 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
41.2%
Jason Shelley run for 5 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
41.1%
Armand Shyne run for 1 yd to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
42.3%
Jason Shelley run for no gain to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
42.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Samson NacuaSimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
44.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Britain CoveySimilar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+20
45.6%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Colo 12 UTAH Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Colo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
45.9%
Kyle Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+4
45.6%
Kyle Evans run for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+10
45.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 10 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
46.5%
Kyle Evans run for 1 yd to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
46.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+13
45.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 13 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.0%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Marquise Blair return for no gain to the Utah 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:0952% → 62%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+61
48.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 61 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
45.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 12 yds to the Colo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
45.1%
Jason Shelley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 10Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
37.6%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
42.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-9
42.4%
Montez, Steven pass complete to McMillian, Trav for 5 yards to the COLO23 (Bernard,Francis), PENALTY COLO holding (Kaiser, Josh) 9 yards to the COLO9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 19
OWN 9
+11
42.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 11 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+19
41.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 19 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
43.4%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
42.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 14
OWN 35
-5
41.5%
Steven Montez sacked by Maxs Tupai for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 19
OWN 30
+3
41.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds , Britain Covey returns for 3 yds to the Utah 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:2360% → 60%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
39.9%
Jason Shelley run for 23 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
38.0%
TJ Green run for 2 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
38.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 5 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-2
38.7%
Armand Shyne run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
40.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
45.3%
Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
46.8%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
45.7%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-1
45.7%
Kyle Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+8
44.4%
Steven Montez run for 8 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
45.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, downed at the Utah 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:1957% → 58%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
42.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 15 yds to the Utah 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
42.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 7 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
40.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jaylen DixonSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+2
41.4%
Jason Shelley run for 2 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
42.2%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 47 yds, downed at the Colo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
46.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-1
45.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
45.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 9 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
47.9%
Steven Montez run for 3 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
47.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
46.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+2
44.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 2 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
43.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:2958% → 63%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
42.4%
Britain Covey run for 9 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
40.6%
Armand Shyne run for 2 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
41.6%
Britain Covey run for 12 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
39.9%
Armand Shyne run for 7 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
38.8%
Armand Shyne run for 5 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
39.1%
TJ Green run for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
38.0%
TJ Green run for no gain to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
39.1%
Jason Shelley run for 1 yd to the Colo 33 Jason Shelley fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
38.3%
TJ Green run for 12 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
38.0%
TJ Green run for 8 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 2
OPP 13
0
38.0%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Samson Nacua, broken up by Trey UdoffiaSimilar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-2
39.2%
Armand Shyne run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 15Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
36.8%
Matt Gay 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Travon McMillian for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
39.4%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
38.9%
Montez, Steven pass complete to Winfree, Juwann for 6 yards to the COLO36, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Shenault, Lavis) 15 yards to the COLO15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+9
37.7%
Steven Montez run for 9 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+2
37.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 37 yds , Britain Covey returns for 2 yds to the Utah 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:3665% → 80%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
35.5%
Britain Covey run for 12 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
20.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 47 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
22.3%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 19Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
22.0%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
20.9%
Steven Montez sacked by Cody Barton for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 15Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
20.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:2780% → 93%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
19.9%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jaylen DixonSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
20.0%
TJ Green run for no gain to the Utah 47Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+19
20.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Britain Covey for 19 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
19.2%
Armand Shyne run for 20 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
19.0%
Jason Shelley sacked by Nate Landman for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+19
19.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 19 yds to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.2%
Armand Shyne run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr., broken up by Hauati PututauSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kabion Ento for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
11.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Kabion EntoSimilar
Q3 0:50
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
11.3%
Brady Russell run for no gain to the Colo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2493% → 97%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
7.0%
TJ Green run for 7 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+3
7.0%
Armand Shyne run for 3 yds to the Colo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
7.0%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
7.2%
Devin Brumfield run for 8 yds to the Colo 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-3
7.2%
Devin Brumfield run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 13Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
2.6%
Matt Gay 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23FUMBLE
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
3.1%
Steven Montez sacked by Leki Fotu for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
3.0%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+8
3.0%
Tyler Lytle pass complete to Travon McMillian for 8 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+33
3.0%
Tyler Lytle pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 33 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
3.4%
Tyler Lytle sacked by Bradlee Anae for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 45Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+8
3.3%
Tyler Lytle run for 8 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-10
3.5%
Lytle, Tyler pass incomplete to McMillian, Trav, QB hurry by Pututau, Hauati, PENALTY COLO holding 10 yards to the UTAH47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+5
3.2%
Tyler Lytle sacked by TEAM for a loss of 13 yards to the Colo 35 Tyler Lytle fumbled, recovered by Utah Hauati Pututau , return for 0 yards , return for 5 yds to the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3998% → 99%
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
1.6%
Britain Covey run for 2 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
1.7%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
1.1%
Matt Gay 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.9%
Tyler Lytle pass complete to Kabion Ento for 7 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
1.9%
Tyler Lytle pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 7 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
2.0%
Lytle, Tyler pass incomplete to Ento, Kabion, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Johnson, Jaylon) 15 yards to the UTAH46, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
2.1%
Tyler Lytle sacked by Pita Tonga for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 14
50
+21
1.9%
Tyler Lytle pass intercepted Jaylon Johnson return for 21 yds to the Colo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 26MISSED FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
0.7%
TJ Green run for 1 yd to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-1
0.7%
Drew Lisk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+2
0.7%
Devin Brumfield run for 2 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+56
0.6%
Matt Gay 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
1.1%
Sam Noyer pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 4 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+11
1.1%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 11 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
1.1%
Sam Noyer pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 2 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
1.1%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 6 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
1.2%
Sam Noyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
1.1%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete, broken up by Nick HeningerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
0.5%
Mason Woodward run for 3 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-3
0.5%
Joey Wood run for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 38Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+1
0.5%
Joey Wood run for 1 yd to the Utah 39Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+1
0.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 33 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 1 yd to the Colo 29 Ronnie Blackmon fumbled, recovered by Colo Ronnie BlackmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
0.7%
Donovan Lee run for 4 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
0.7%
Donovan Lee run for 5 yds to the Colo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:57
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 47 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q3 0:50
Armand Shyne run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)
-12
TD · Q2 9:54
Jason Shelley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com