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USC

USC 27 at UCLA 34

UCLA
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+12.6UCLA 77.6%JJ Molson 19 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 31 · Q4 6:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:19 · JJ Molson 19 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense+12.8Pregame prior−0.9Garbage-time factor+5.5Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:54: JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +9.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:04: Michael Brown 22 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +6.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:39: Joshua Kelley run for 55 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +29.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:19: JJ Molson 19 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +12.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:36: JJ Molson 48 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +7.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:32USC 4th & 14 at UCLA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:21USC 4th & 1 at UCLA 23, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:38USC 4th & 1 at USC 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.3%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UCLA 4th & 16 at UCLA 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:11UCLA 4th & 9 at USC 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:54UCLA 4th & 6 at USC 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:51USC 4th & 2 at USC 16, up 3
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:04USC 4th & 3 at UCLA 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−13.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:04UCLA 4th & 4 at USC 41, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−2.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00USC 4th & 20 at UCLA 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:19UCLA 4th & 2 at USC 2, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%−5.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−26.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:16USC 4th & 11 at USC 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−2.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:36UCLA 4th & 4 at USC 31, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%−1.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−5.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:37USC 4th & 1 at UCLA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−6.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−6.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:37USC 4th & 3 at UCLA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−4.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−8.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:53UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:38UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:22USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:10UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:54USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:39UCLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:2859% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
41.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 20 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Quentin LakeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
41.3%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the USC 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+5
41.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+27
41.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 27 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
41.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-8
41.3%
JT Daniels sacked by Lokeni Toailoa for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 28
0
41.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+46
42.3%
Michael Brown 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3442% → 45%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+29
41.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 29 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
42.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
42.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
42.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Christian Pabico for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+4
42.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+33
45.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 33 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:3255% → 55%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+37
44.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Josh Falo for 37 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
43.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
43.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Erik KrommenhoekSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
43.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Darnay HolmesSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+42
44.7%
Michael Brown 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:4345% → 51%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
45.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
45.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
45.4%
UCLA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+61
45.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 61 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
46.2%
Martell Irby run for 2 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
46.2%
Wilton Speight run for 2 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
51.1%
Wilton Speight run for 4 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1650% → 54%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
50.2%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Pittman, Michae (Gates, Elijah), PENALTY UCLA holding 10 yards to the USC39, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
49.9%
Michael Pittman Jr. run for 9 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-5
49.3%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the USC 43Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
49.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
49.6%
JT Daniels run for no gain to the USC 48Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+8
50.1%
Erik Krommenhoek run for 8 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
45.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 44 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:2248% → 46%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
47.7%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
47.0%
Wilton Speight sacked by Jordan Iosefa for a loss of 9 yards to the UCLA 19Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
46.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt blocked by Jake Russell blocked by Jake RussellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
43.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
50
-1
45.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
44.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
44.2%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
43.3%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
43.5%
JT Daniels pass intercepted Nate Meadors return for no gain to the UCLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:4946% → 53%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
45.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 8 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+6
46.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Christian Pabico for 6 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
46.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+7
46.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
46.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+22
46.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 22 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
46.9%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 5Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
46.9%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (3 Yards) to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
46.9%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.9%
Wilton Speight run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1649% → 59%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
50.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 6 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
50.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
49.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 19 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
40.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
43.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
42.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 8 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
44.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
45.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
45.1%
Wilton Speight run for 5 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
46.1%
Martell Irby run for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
46.3%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the USC 45Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
45.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
44.1%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 37 yds, downed at the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
42.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+4
42.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 2
OWN 16
0
43.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the USC 16Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
44.0%
Reid Budrovich punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Theo Howard at the UCLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 46%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
43.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 11 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Christian PabicoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0043% → 48%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
43.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
44.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 10 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
46.4%
Martell Irby run for 2 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+14
46.6%
Wilton Speight run for 14 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
48.1%
Wilton Speight pass intercepted, touchback. Isaiah Langley return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:1758% → 68%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
41.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
40.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+37
41.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 37 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
38.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 15 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
38.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
38.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+8
39.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
38.0%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 10Similar
Q3 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
38.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
38.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
39.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+22
32.4%
Michael Brown 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.5%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
36.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 13 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
37.8%
Speight, Wilton pass incomplete to Wilson, Caleb, PENALTY USC pass interference 15 yards to the USC47, 1ST DOWN UCLA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
40.6%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
40.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-2
40.3%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 41Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
38.2%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 28 yds, downed at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
14 plays · 48 yds · 4:4267% → 69%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
32.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+11
32.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
31.6%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the USC 24Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+16
32.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 16 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
29.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
29.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Krys BarnesSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+11
29.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
29.0%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 15
50
+21
29.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 21 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
28.3%
JT Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
28.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 30
-10
27.0%
Daniels, JT pass complete to Vaughns, Tyler for loss of 3 yards to the UCLA33 (Holmes, Darnay), PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the UCLA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 40
+1
28.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OPP 39
0
30.9%
Reid Budrovich punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCLA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 3:1434% → 64%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
34.0%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+3
33.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+11
32.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 11 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
34.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+5
35.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
35.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Demetric Felton for 15 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
64.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 55 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.7%
JT Daniels pass intercepted Darnay Holmes return for no gain to the UCLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:1264% → 78%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
64.2%
Wilton Speight run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
50
+15
65.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 15 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
66.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Christian Pabico for 11 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
66.8%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the USC 24Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
66.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+10
65.1%
Speight, Wilton pass incomplete to Kelley, Joshua, PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the USC9, 1ST DOWN UCLA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
67.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the USC 8Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
67.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.0%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
77.6%
JJ Molson 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 30%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
66.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
66.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-4
68.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 11Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 11
OWN 11
0
69.8%
Reid Budrovich punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:1985% → 92%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
84.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 15 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
85.4%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the USC 37Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
85.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+1
84.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the USC 31Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+48
92.2%
JJ Molson 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 1:5315% → 12%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
85.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 24 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
82.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 6 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
80.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 3 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
84.5%
JT Daniels run for no gain to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
86.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr., broken up by Adarius PickettSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
85.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Vavae MalepeaiSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+7
86.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
88.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. Brown, broken up by Krys BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24Uncategorized
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:39
Joshua Kelley run for 55 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)
+29
FG · Q4 6:19
JJ Molson 19 yd FG GOOD
+12.6
TD · Q2 5:54
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com