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ORST

Oregon State 17 at Stanford 48

STAN
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:25 · Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trenton Irwin at the Stanf 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+40.1Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:17: K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK) — STAN win probability +2.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:47: K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 75 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK) — STAN win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:51: K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK) — STAN win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Jordan Choukair 40 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +3.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:32: Cameron Scarlett run for 41 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK) — STAN win probability +2.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:12ORST 4th & 8 at STAN 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:47STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:25ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:17ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:47ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 8 at STAN 28, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:17ORST 4th & 6 at STAN 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:33STAN 4th & 1 at ORST 1, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:26ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 16, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:36STAN 4th & 3 at ORST 48, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:21ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 17, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:24STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 44, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:24STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 48, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:38ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 41, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:38ORST 4th & 9 at STAN 25, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:12STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:09ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:25STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:17STAN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:47STAN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:51STAN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:36ORST Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:32STAN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:33STAN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4894% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.3%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+26
94.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 26 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
94.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 18 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Kaleb HayesSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
94.1%
Bryce Love run for 28 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2INT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
94.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
94.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 13 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
94.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-1
94.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
94.1%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
94.1%
Jake Luton pass intercepted Frank Buncom return for no gain to the Stanf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
93.8%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 10Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+10
93.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 10 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
93.7%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
93.7%
Jake Bailey punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
1 play · 63 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
92.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 63 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4493% → 93%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Bryce LoveSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 12 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
93.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 9 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+13
93.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 13 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
93.2%
Bryce Love run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
93.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Bryce Love for 7 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
93.2%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-5
93.1%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+28
92.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 28 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
92.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
92.7%
Jake Luton sacked by Thomas Booker for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
92.8%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trenton Irwin at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:4793% → 94%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
92.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 13 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
92.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+7
92.8%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
92.8%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+12
92.7%
Bryce Love run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+13
92.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 13 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
92.8%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
92.1%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
93.0%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
93.2%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-2
93.3%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 44 yds , Trenton Irwin returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
95.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 75 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
96.1%
Jake Luton sacked by Jordan Fox for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+7
96.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+12
96.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+23
96.1%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds , Trenton Irwin returns for 23 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:5897% → 99%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+45
96.6%
K.J. Costello run for 45 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
96.6%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 0
+2
96.4%
Costello,K pass intercepted by Kell, Drew at the STAN0, Kell, Drew return to the OSU17 (Wedington,C), PENALTY OSU holding (Kell, Drew) 4 yards to the OSU4, NO PLAY, PENALTY OSU unsportsmanlike conduct (Aydon, Elu) 2 yards to the OSU2, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
96.6%
Love,B rush for loss of 3 yards to the OSU5 (Aydon, Elu), PENALTY STAN holding (Hall,AT) 10 yards to the OSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
96.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 7 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:152% → 4%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
98.3%
Jefferson, J. rush for 6 yards to the OSU42 (Jackson,D), PENALTY OSU holding (Quitoriano, T.) 10 yards to the OSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+6
98.4%
Michael Alfieri run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
98.4%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+25
98.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 25 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.2%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
98.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
98.1%
Jake Luton run for 2 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
98.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 8 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+3
98.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
98.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 19 yds to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
98.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 5Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
98.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 7Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13INT
13 plays · 24 yds · 1:5597% → 98%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
97.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 6 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+10
97.4%
Dorian Maddox run for 10 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
97.5%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+6
97.4%
Dorian Maddox run for 6 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
97.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+18
97.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 18 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
97.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
97.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-15
97.6%
Costello,K pass complete to Smith,K for 6 yards to the OSU24 (Bush, Jaelen), PENALTY STAN personal foul (Maddox,D) 15 yards to the OSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 21
OPP 45
+17
98.0%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Shemar Smith return for 17 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:204% → 7%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 4 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
96.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
96.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+27
96.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 27 yds to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+40
92.8%
Jordan Choukair 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
94.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 14 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
94.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
93.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
93.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 16 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
93.4%
Jake Luton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+4
93.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
93.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jermar JeffersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 28
0
94.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by Kendall WilliamsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 2:1195% → 98%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
95.0%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+16
95.0%
Bryce Love run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
95.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+41
98.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 41 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 13 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+48
97.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 48 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
97.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the Stanf 13Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
97.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 3 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
97.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
97.9%
Jordan Choukair 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18TD
19 plays · 80 yds · 8:4498% → 100%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 5 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+20
98.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 20 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Connor Wedington, broken up by Shawn WilsonSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.1%
Dorian Maddox run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 44Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+23
98.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 23 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 0
-10
98.0%
Maddox,D rush for 12 yards to the OSU21 (Manning Jr., J.), PENALTY STAN holding (Burkett,J) 10 yards to the OSU43, NO PLAY, PENALTY STAN face mask declined.Similar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+4
98.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+12
98.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dorian Maddox for 12 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+16
98.2%
Dorian Maddox run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
98.2%
Dorian Maddox run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
99.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+8
99.3%
Costello,K pass incomplete to Fehoko,S (Grant, Jaydon), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Grant, Jaydon) 8 yards to the OSU2, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.3%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (Dylan Powell) to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
Dorian Maddox run for no gain to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.3%
Dorian Maddox run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.3%
Dorian Maddox run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 13:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Dorian Maddox run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
99.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-5
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Trent Moore) to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 9
OWN 16
-3
99.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 36 yds , Trenton Irwin returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Justus Woods run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 5
50
-4
99.9%
Jack Richardson sacked by Andrzej Hughes-Murray for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+6
99.9%
Jack Richardson pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 6 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 36 yds, downed at the OrgSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
99.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+2
99.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Justus Woods run for 5 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Jack West pass incomplete to Scooter Harrington, broken up by Shemar SmithSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
99.9%
Jack West pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 4 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Jack West run for 2 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Justus Woods run for 2 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Jack West pass incomplete to Simi Fehoko, broken up by Kaleb HayesSimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Jack West pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23DOWNS
15 plays · 70 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 5 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+4
99.9%
Michael Alfieri run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
99.9%
Conor Blount run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Champ Flemings, broken up by Obi EbohSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+20
99.9%
Michael Alfieri run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Thunder Keck) to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Jesiah IrishSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Conor Blount run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+18
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 18 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Michael Alfieri for 8 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+7
99.9%
Michael Alfieri run for 7 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Champ Flemings, broken up by Obi EbohSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
Conor Blount run for 1 yd to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Jesiah IrishSimilar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 9
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Kolby Taylor, broken up by Noah WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24Uncategorized
1 play · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Cameron McFarlane run for 11 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Jordan Choukair 40 yd FG GOOD
-3.4
TD · Q3 9:32
Cameron Scarlett run for 41 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q2 12:47
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 75 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com