Try the model
ORE

Oregon 25 at Utah 32

UTAH
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+7.4UTAH 71.4%Matt Gay 20 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 13 · Q2 12:24
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:24 · Matt Gay 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Home team on offense+7.3Pregame prior+4.3Garbage-time factor+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score differential+3.9Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:23: Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 34 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +8.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  2. TD · Q3 10:59: Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 8 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +12.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:52: Adam Stack 34 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +8.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 8:15: Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 3 yds for a TD (Justin Herbert pass to Jaylon Redd for Two-Point Conversion) — ORE win probability +45.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:48: Jason Shelley run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +32.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:36UTAH 4th & 3 at ORE 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37ORE 4th & 16 at ORE 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:11UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:17ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:24UTAH 4th & 2 at ORE 2, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.3%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−7.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:07UTAH 4th & 3 at ORE 3, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05ORE 4th & 2 at UTAH 18, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−6.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00UTAH 4th & 4 at ORE 38, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%−1.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:59UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:52ORE 4th & 8 at UTAH 16, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:52UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 26, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:26ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−2.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:27UTAH 4th & 10 at ORE 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−9.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:27ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−3.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:43ORE 4th & 6 at UTAH 46, down 5
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−3.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:56UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 22, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−3.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:38ORE 4th & 5 at UTAH 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−4.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−3.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:15UTAH 4th & 6 at ORE 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:44UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:23ORE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:59ORE Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:15ORE Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    52.3%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:48UTAH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTAHDrive 1FG
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:2456% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
56.1%
Armand Shyne run for 1 yd to the Utah 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+2
56.1%
Armand Shyne run for 2 yds to the Utah 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+14
56.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Britain Covey for 14 yds to the Utah 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+42
56.1%
Armand Shyne run for 42 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
56.1%
Jason Shelley run for 9 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+4
56.1%
Devin Brumfield run for 4 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
56.1%
TJ Green run for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
56.1%
Armand Shyne run for 3 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
56.1%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
57.1%
Matt Gay 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.9%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.9%
CJ Verdell run for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
56.8%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
56.9%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-7
57.1%
Justin Herbert sacked by Cody Barton for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 34 Justin Herbert fumbled, recovered by Utah Hauati Pututau , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:4558% → 60%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.9%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
57.8%
Armand Shyne run for no gain to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+21
57.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Britain Covey for 21 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
57.9%
Britain Covey run for 11 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.2%
Jason Shelley run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
59.2%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-8
59.1%
Justin Herbert sacked by Chase Hansen for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
59.7%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
59.9%
Blake Maimone punt for 59 yds, downed at the Utah 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
60.1%
Armand Shyne run for 2 yds to the Utah 14Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
60.1%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Britain CoveySimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
59.8%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
59.5%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
60.1%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-1
60.1%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
60.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
60.8%
Blake Maimone punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 6:1862% → 71%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.0%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
61.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 9 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+6
61.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 6 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
62.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 19 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
62.9%
Jason Shelley run for 6 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
62.9%
Britain Covey run for 6 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
63.0%
Armand Shyne run for 5 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
63.0%
Armand Shyne run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
62.5%
Jason Shelley run for 2 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+5
62.1%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive offside (Jordon Scott) to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
63.0%
Jason Shelley run for 4 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
64.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 5 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+6
64.0%
Armand Shyne run for 6 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
64.5%
Armand Shyne run for 2 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
64.5%
Armand Shyne run for no gain to the Oregn 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
64.0%
Armand Shyne run for 1 yd to the Oregn 2Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
71.4%
Matt Gay 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0131% → 41%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
68.9%
Jaylon Redd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
69.0%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+28
69.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 28 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
67.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 14 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
67.1%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Utah 34Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
58.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 34 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:1663% → 68%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.4%
Armand Shyne run for 1 yd to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+40
63.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 40 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
65.2%
Siaosi Mariner run for no gain to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+18
65.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 18 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
65.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 9 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+6
65.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 6 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.2%
Armand Shyne run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+6
65.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the Oregn 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Utah Devin Brumfield , return for 6 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
64.5%
Devin Brumfield run for 4 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
68.2%
Matt Gay 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10MISSED FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:0232% → 31%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.3%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
68.3%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jaylon Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
70.2%
Justin Herbert run for 17 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
68.6%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+16
69.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 16 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
67.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 11 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
67.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+10
67.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 10 yds to the Utah 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
66.2%
CJ Verdell run for 9 yds to the Utah 17Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 1
OPP 17
-1
66.2%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 18Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
67.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell, broken up by Tareke LewisSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
69.0%
Adam Stack 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 1:0573% → 75%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
72.5%
Jason Shelley run for 5 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
72.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
73.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 19 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.9%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Demari SimpkinsSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
72.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Britain CoveySimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+6
71.4%
Armand Shyne run for 6 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+55
75.4%
Matt Gay 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0124% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.9%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
75.7%
Justin Herbert run for no gain to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
76.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 17 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
75.0%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-2
74.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Steven Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+22
78.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 22 yds CJ Verdell fumbled, forced by Marquise Blair, recovered by Oregn Brenden Schooler for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
76.4%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+18
76.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 18 yds to the Utah 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
63.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 8 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.9%
Armand Shyne run for 3 yds to the Utah 29 Armand Shyne fumbled, forced by Keith Simms, recovered by Utah Orlando Umana , return for 1 yd to the Utah 29Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
68.1%
Jason Shelley run for 3 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
67.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Britain CoveySimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
67.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:4431% → 40%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
69.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 4 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+58
70.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 58 yds to the Utah 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
64.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Tony Brooks-JamesSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-4
64.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 22Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+6
67.9%
Justin Herbert run for 6 yds to the Utah 16Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
59.9%
Adam Stack 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Britain Covey for 2 yds to the Utah 27Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
63.4%
Jason Shelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 26Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
61.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
61.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
61.5%
Justin Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Leki Fotu) to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
60.9%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
60.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Brenden SchoolerSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
62.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
63.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:5963% → 71%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
63.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 11 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+42
63.7%
Armand Shyne run for 42 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
68.8%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Cole Fotheringham, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
68.6%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
66.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Britain CoveySimilar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
70.9%
Matt Gay 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.7%
Herbert, Justin pass complete to Johnson III, J. for 9 yards to the ORE34 (Johnson, Jaylon), PENALTY ORE illegal shift 5 yards to the ORE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
72.1%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
71.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 5 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
71.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
73.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 57 yds, downed at the Utah 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4271% → 69%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
70.8%
Britain Covey run for 12 yds to the Utah 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
71.2%
Armand Shyne run for 4 yds to the Utah 27Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-9
71.4%
Jason Shelley sacked by Thomas Graham Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Utah 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 18
-5
69.7%
Shelley, Jason pass complete to Nacua, Samson for 19 yards to the UTAH37 (Lenoir, D.), PENALTY UTAH ineligible downfield on pass (Barton, Jackson) 5 yards to the UTAH13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 13
+11
69.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Britain Covey for 11 yds to the Utah 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
69.0%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
73.2%
Travis Dye run for 12 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
71.6%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the Oregn 49 OREGON Penalty, Offensive holding (Brenden Schooler) to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 9
OWN 39
+5
71.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 5 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-15
69.7%
Herbert, Justin pass complete to Dillon, Kano for 9 yards to the UTAH47, PENALTY ORE pass interference (Dillon, Kano) 15 yards to the ORE29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+9
73.9%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+12
73.5%
Justin Herbert run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
50
+4
69.0%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-10
69.0%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Mitchell, D. (Blair, Marquise), PENALTY ORE holding (Lemieux, Shane) 10 yards to the ORE44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+10
72.7%
Justin Herbert run for 10 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
69.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob Breeland, broken up by Corrion BallardSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
72.6%
Blake Maimone punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0078% → 75%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.5%
Armand Shyne run for no gain to the Utah 20Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
77.2%
Jason Shelley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 18Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+4
75.7%
Jason Shelley run for 4 yds to the Utah 22 UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+4
75.0%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt blocked by Kano Dillon blocked by Kano Dillon Adrian Jackson return for 4 yds to the Utah 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 3 yds for a TD (Justin Herbert pass to Jaylon Redd for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:2746% → 84%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
46.4%
UTAH Penalty, false start (Demari Simpkins) to the Utah 35Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+11
42.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 11 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+36
47.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 36 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
51.6%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 13 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
51.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Cole FotheringhamSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
51.6%
Shelley, Jason pass incomplete to Enis, Solomon, PENALTY ORE pass interference (Graham Jr., T.) 3 yards to the ORE2, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.7%
Jason Shelley run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
70.9%
Travis Dye run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
50
+7
66.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 7 yds to the Utah 43Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-5
66.0%
Justin Herbert sacked by Maxs Tupai for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 48Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+3
68.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 3 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
70.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell, broken up by Jaylon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 25FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 4:2487% → 98%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
86.6%
Armand Shyne run for 16 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
87.6%
Armand Shyne run for 6 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+7
88.7%
Armand Shyne run for 7 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
88.7%
Armand Shyne run for 4 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+20
91.4%
Armand Shyne run for 20 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
93.1%
Armand Shyne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 3Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
93.5%
Jason Shelley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.4%
Armand Shyne run for no gain to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
97.7%
Matt Gay 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:007% → 9%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+28
93.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 28 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
90.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:15
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 3 yds for a TD (Justin Herbert pass to Jaylon Redd for Two-Point Conversion)
-45.5
TD · Q4 6:48
Jason Shelley run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)
+32.1
TD · Q3 10:59
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 8 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com