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CAL

California 15 at USC 14

USC
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:41 · Michael Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+10.3Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:51: Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 29 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +13.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:13: Chase Garbers run for 5 yds for a TD (Chase Garbers intercepted ) — CAL win probability +15.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:45: Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the USC 47 — CAL win probability +9.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 20 — CAL win probability +10.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 22 — CAL win probability +9.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 14:12CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41USC 4th & 3 at CAL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:17CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:09USC 4th & 5 at CAL 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:06CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:17CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19USC 4th & 1 at USC 38, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:54USC 4th & 6 at CAL 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:05CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:03USC 4th & 2 at USC 44, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:45CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 20, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:19USC 4th & 10 at USC 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−2.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:57CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 49, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:30USC 4th & 18 at USC 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−5.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:40CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 16, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:50USC 4th & 21 at USC 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−6.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:02CAL 4th & 1 at USC 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%−11.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−17.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:13USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:29USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:51CAL Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3839% → 39%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
60.9%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
60.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 8
OWN 5
0
60.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Ian BuntingSimilar
Q1 14:12
4TH & 8
OWN 5
0
60.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2761% → 61%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
61.0%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+16
61.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 16 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
61.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
61.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+6
61.2%
JT Daniels run for 6 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 3
OPP 25
-2
61.1%
Michael Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:1839% → 39%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
60.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 10 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
60.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
60.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 2 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
60.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
50
+1
60.2%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the USC 49Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
60.2%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-7
60.1%
Chase Garbers sacked by Marlon Tuipulotu for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
60.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:0161% → 61%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
60.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
60.5%
JT Daniels run for 2 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
60.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+11
60.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 11 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
61.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 41Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+10
60.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
61.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
61.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
61.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
60.9%
Reid Budrovich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:5640% → 39%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
60.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 2 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+8
60.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Ricky Walker III for 8 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
60.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 1 yd to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-8
59.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Curhan) to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 17
OWN 9
0
60.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+4
60.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
60.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:4462% → 67%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
50
+44
62.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 44 yds to the Cal 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
62.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
62.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the Cal 2Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4335% → 33%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
65.5%
Biaggio Ali Walsh run for 1 yd to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
65.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
66.3%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
66.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for no gain to the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5166% → 67%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
66.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for no gain to the USC 29Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
66.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
67.1%
JT Daniels run for 1 yd to the USC 38Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
66.7%
Reid Budrovich punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4134% → 33%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
66.3%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+29
66.8%
Chase Garbers run for 29 yds to the USC 49 Chase Garbers fumbled, forced by Ajene Harris, recovered by USC Jordan IosefaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:0169% → 76%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
68.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 16 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
69.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-11
69.4%
JT Daniels sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 19
OPP 44
+13
67.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 13 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+8
68.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
75.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 23 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1027% → 26%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
73.3%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
73.0%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
73.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
74.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12FUMBLE
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:1475% → 81%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
74.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
74.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for no gain to the USC 14Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+9
74.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
75.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
75.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+7
76.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
77.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 33Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+23
77.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 23 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
79.0%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+24
78.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Josh Falo for 24 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
79.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
80.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+5
81.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds Amon-Ra St. Brown fumbled, forced by Luc Bequette, recovered by Cal Jordan KunaszykSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
79.6%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14SF
4 plays · -25 yds · 0:3982% → 82%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
81.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Toa Lobendahn) to the USC 22Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
81.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:0024% → 38%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
50
+15
76.5%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Olaijah Griffin) to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
75.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
75.6%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+29
62.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 29 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16INT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:5569% → 69%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
68.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
68.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
69.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
70.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
71.0%
JT Daniels sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 39Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+3
69.2%
JT Daniels pass intercepted Traveon Beck return for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:3137% → 53%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
62.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 5 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
61.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 6 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
61.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Ian BuntingSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
61.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 3 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+10
63.1%
Patrick Laird run for 10 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
61.0%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
61.0%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the USC 10Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
62.6%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
47.4%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds for a TD (Chase Garbers intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:0355% → 54%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
54.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
55.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
57.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
56.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 44Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
53.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1349% → 47%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
51.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 5 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
51.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
51.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
53.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2053% → 49%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
53.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
52.7%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
50.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+9
48.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 42 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1551% → 54%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
49.2%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
48.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+6
46.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 6 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
44.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
45.6%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+4
45.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 4 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
46.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds, downed at the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:2048% → 46%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
48.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+4
48.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+7
46.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
49.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
48.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+9
48.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
51.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
54.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 8
50
0
55.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 8
50
-10
52.9%
JT Daniels sacked by Evan Weaver for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 18
OWN 40
+2
46.0%
Reid Budrovich punt for 47 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 2 yds to the Cal 42 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Block (7 Yards) to the Cal 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4355% → 56%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
45.4%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+6
43.1%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 2
OWN 16
0
42.6%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
43.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:4050% → 42%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
48.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-5
47.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (Austin Jackson) to the USC 34Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-9
44.4%
JT Daniels sacked by Evan Weaver for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 21
OWN 25
+4
42.0%
Reid Budrovich punt for 33 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 4 yds to the Cal 46 Nikko Remigio fumbled, recovered by CalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
14 plays · 32 yds · 4:4568% → 95%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
32.5%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-10
30.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Patrick Mekari) to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
34.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
35.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 13
OWN 43
+15
37.8%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Iman Marshall) to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
29.0%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the USC 42Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
28.3%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
28.4%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+14
30.3%
Patrick Laird run for 14 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
20.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 20Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-1
14.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 21Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 21
-1
5.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:13
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds for a TD (Chase Garbers intercepted )
-15.1
TD · Q3 12:51
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 29 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
-13.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 20
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com