Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 28 at Arizona State 31

ASU
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Mountain America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Stefan Flintoft punt for 42 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ARIZONAST 12 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+16.5Home team on offense+0.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:36: Manny Wilkins pass intercepted for a TD Darnay Holmes return for 31 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +8.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:13: Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +8.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:13: Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 33 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +16.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 3:56: Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +14.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:57: Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 10 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +23.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 9:16ASU 4th & 11 at UCLA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:13ASU 4th & 3 at UCLA 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UCLA 4th & 1 at ASU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−0.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−3.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:12UCLA 4th & 11 at ASU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:31UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−1.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:53ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:13ASU 4th & 1 at UCLA 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−10.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:16ASU 4th & 14 at UCLA 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−3.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−11.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:16UCLA 4th & 5 at ASU 40, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−1.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:47ASU 4th & 9 at UCLA 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−2.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:13UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:09ASU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:36UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:58ASU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:13ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:13UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:56ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:57UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:4481% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
81.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
81.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+9
81.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
81.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 17 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
81.0%
Isaiah Floyd run for 1 yd to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+11
81.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 11 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
81.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
81.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Isaiah Floyd for 9 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
81.0%
[NHSG], PENALTY ASU false start (Losoya, Alex) 5 yards to the UCLA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 19
0
81.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+3
81.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+1
81.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+34
79.9%
Brandon Ruiz 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0320% → 23%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
80.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 10 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
79.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 18 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
79.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+6
79.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+26
79.5%
Theo Howard run for 26 yds to the ArzSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
79.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
77.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
77.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
50
+2
78.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
78.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
78.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
77.9%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4DOWNS
14 plays · 65 yds · 3:1024% → 26%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
76.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Demetric Felton for 3 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
76.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+8
76.3%
Wilton Speight run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
76.0%
Wilton Speight run for 1 yd to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
76.0%
Wilton Speight run for 4 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+17
75.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 17 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
75.4%
Wilton Speight sacked by Tyler Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+12
74.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+18
73.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 18 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
73.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
73.4%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-5
73.7%
[NHSG], PENALTY UCLA false start (Tagaloa, Boss) 5 yards to the ASU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+13
74.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 13 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-1
74.3%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:5474% → 79%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
73.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
73.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+14
73.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 14 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
74.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+52
74.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 39 yds to the ARIZONAST 26 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Atonio Mafi) to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
76.0%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
78.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 13 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 4:5723% → 25%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
76.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+30
76.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 30 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
75.3%
Theo Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+6
75.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+8
75.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 8 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
72.9%
Kelley, Joshua rush for 1 yard to the ASU25 (Bates, Jalen), PENALTY UCLA OH (James, Andre) 10 yards to the ASU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 20
OPP 36
0
74.4%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+3
74.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 17
OPP 33
-5
75.2%
[SG], PENALTY UCLA false start (Burton, Jake) 5 yards to the ASU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 22
OPP 38
+11
75.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Chase Cota for 11 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
75.5%
JJ Molson 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7INT TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3676% → 67%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
75.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+31
67.4%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted for a TD Darnay Holmes return for 31 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3867% → 78%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
69.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
68.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 18 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
70.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
70.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+9
69.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 9 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
70.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 17 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
71.0%
Isaiah Floyd run for 13 yds to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
71.1%
N'Keal Harry run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Nick Ralston for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:2724% → 23%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.2%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
76.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Martell Irby for 3 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
76.9%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0275% → 76%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
74.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
75.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
73.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Malik Lawal) to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
72.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
71.6%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
71.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Caleb Wilson, broken up by Jermayne LoleSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+57
73.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 42 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ARIZONAST 12 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
75.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-3
75.1%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+1
73.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
73.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13INT
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:0027% → 30%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+47
73.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 32 yds to the ARIZONAST 48 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (Merlin Robertson) to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
69.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+2
68.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
69.9%
Wilton Speight pass intercepted Chase Lucas return for 3 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:3474% → 84%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+41
73.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 41 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
77.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 12 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
77.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 14 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
77.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
77.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the UCLA 3Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
76.0%
Isaiah Floyd run for 2 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0016% → 34%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
83.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 8 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
82.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
82.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 13 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
82.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+33
66.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 33 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16MISSED FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 6:5173% → 73%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
72.9%
Isaiah Floyd run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+11
72.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 11 yds N'Keal Harry fumbled, forced by Elijah Gates, recovered by ArzSt Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
72.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
73.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
73.4%
Isaiah Floyd run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
72.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
73.5%
Isaiah Floyd run for 23 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
76.2%
Isaiah Floyd run for 1 yd to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
76.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank Darby, broken up by Osa OdighizuwaSimilar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+10
75.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 10 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
77.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 11 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
77.0%
Isaiah Floyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-10
76.8%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Lokeni Toailoa for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OPP 32
+8
72.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 8 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+42
72.8%
Brandon Ruiz 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0028% → 30%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
72.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 15 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
70.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+14
69.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 14 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
67.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
66.9%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
68.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Caleb Wilson, broken up by Evan FieldsSimilar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
69.9%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 8:0574% → 93%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
74.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
74.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
74.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
76.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
76.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line ARIZONA ST Penalty, IB (Eno Benjamin) to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 17
OWN 35
+9
74.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
76.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 2
50
+2
76.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
77.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+27
77.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 27 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
78.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+9
78.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
78.7%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 8Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
78.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 7 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:597% → 34%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Joshua KelleySimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
92.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Christian Pabico for 20 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
91.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 5
50
0
90.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Caleb Wilson, broken up by Aashari CrosswellSimilar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 5
50
+9
91.0%
Wilton Speight run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
90.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Christian Pabico for 12 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
89.4%
Speight, Wilton pass incomplete to Howard, Theo, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Lucas, Chase) 15 yards to the ASU14, 1ST DOWN UCLA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
89.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Martell IrbySimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
89.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Christian Pabico for 4 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
66.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 10 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0889% → 88%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
89.1%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+4
89.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+1
89.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Nick Ralston for 1 yd to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
87.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
80.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Chase Cota for 12 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
79.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Chase Cota for 9 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-8
74.7%
Wilton Speight sacked by Tyler Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 29 Wilton Speight fumbled, recovered by UCLA Wilton Speight , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 13
OWN 29
-5
81.7%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Christaphany Murray) to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 18
OWN 24
-5
81.8%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Andre James) to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 23
OWN 19
0
81.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:57
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 10 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)
-23.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.1
TD · Q3 6:13
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 33 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)
-16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com