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USC

USC 38 at Oregon State 21

ORST
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:44 · Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior−27.7Home team on offense−10.0Score differential−4.3Garbage-time factor−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:15: Jack Colletto run for 6 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +3.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:04: Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 11 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +6.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:42: Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +7.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:23: Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +14.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:53: Aca'Cedric Ware run for 62 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +15.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:01USC 4th & 1 at ORST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:43ORST 4th & 12 at USC 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:44USC 4th & 1 at ORST 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−2.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:09USC 4th & 9 at ORST 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:16USC 4th & 7 at USC 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:26ORST 4th & 14 at ORST 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:28USC 4th & 8 at USC 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ORST 4th & 5 at USC 19, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−10.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:13ORST 4th & 9 at USC 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:12ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:42USC 4th & 4 at ORST 28, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:42ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 28, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:42ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:38USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:50USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:13USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:15ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:04ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:42USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:23ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:53USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
15.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
15.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
15.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
15.2%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
15.2%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
21 plays · 86 yds · 7:2284% → 83%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
16.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
16.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+7
16.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
16.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+9
16.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
16.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. Brown, broken up by Hamilcar Rashed Jr.Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
16.1%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the USC 37Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+5
16.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the USC 42Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
16.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
17.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
17.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
17.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-5
17.4%
USC Penalty, false start (Andrew Vorhees) to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+6
17.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
17.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
17.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 13 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
17.3%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+2
17.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+6
17.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
17.1%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:5518% → 19%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
17.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
17.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
18.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 16 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
18.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+14
18.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 14 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+9
18.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
18.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
18.8%
Jake Luton sacked by C.J. Pollard and Christian Rector for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+8
18.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 8 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+50
19.2%
Jordan Choukair 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:5381% → 85%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
18.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Jalen MooreSimilar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
18.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
18.4%
JT Daniels run for 2 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
15.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 57 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
16.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 15 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
16.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+7
16.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
16.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 3 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
16.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
16.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the USC 44Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-7
16.8%
Jake Luton sacked by Jay Tufele for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
16.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:3185% → 87%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
15.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
15.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+11
15.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
14.7%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
14.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+7
14.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Devon Williams for 7 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
14.7%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-7
14.7%
JT Daniels sacked by Doug Taumoelau and Isaac Hodgins for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+13
14.9%
Stephen Carr run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
15.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
12.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Devon Williams for 41 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:4714% → 18%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
13.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
13.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 7 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
13.5%
Jack Colletto run for 5 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
13.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
13.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+9
13.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
13.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 14 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
17.6%
Jack Colletto run for 6 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
15.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
15.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 6 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
15.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+24
15.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 24 yds Tyler Vaughns fumbled, forced by Devon Williams, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
14.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
14.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. Brown, broken up by Hamilcar Rashed Jr.Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
15.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
15.7%
Reid Budrovich punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 1:0715% → 24%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
14.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 6 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
15.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 5 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+43
15.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 43 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
17.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 5 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
17.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 6 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
16.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
16.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+11
23.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 11 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
19.3%
Stephen Carr run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1380% → 89%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+29
19.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Devon Williams for 29 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
18.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
18.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+8
18.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
18.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
18.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+6
18.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (6 Yards) to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
18.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+2
18.3%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Vaughns, Tyler, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Dunn, Isaiah) 2 yards to the OSU2, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1913% → 28%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
13.4%
Luton, Jake pass incomplete to Hodgins, Isaiah, PENALTY USC pass interference (Marshall, Iman) 15 yards to the OSU40, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
14.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
14.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+13
14.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 13 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
14.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 22 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
15.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
15.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the USC 14Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
15.0%
Jake Luton run for 2 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-6
15.5%
Jake Luton run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 18Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 16
OPP 18
-5
15.1%
Jake Luton sacked by Christian Rector for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 21
OPP 23
+17
14.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 10 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, personal foul (Ajene Harris) to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
28.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
20.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr., broken up by Kee WhetzelSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
20.5%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
20.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
21.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
23.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
23.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-4
22.3%
Jake Luton sacked by Jay Tufele for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
21.7%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
19.3%
JT Daniels sacked by Andrzej Hughes-Murray for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+8
20.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 8 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-4
19.6%
JT Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 42 JT Daniels fumbled, recovered by USC JT DanielsSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
21.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 39 yds, downed at the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:2324% → 24%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
23.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+6
24.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
24.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 15 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
26.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+5
27.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
27.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 18 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
29.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
28.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+2
26.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 19
0
24.1%
Timmy Hernandez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
19.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
18.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
18.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the USC 39 Vavae Malepeai fumbled, forced by Matthew Tago, recovered by OrgSt Jalen MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0027% → 22%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
26.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the USC 38Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
26.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the USC 38Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
25.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
22.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Ajene HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
6.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 62 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:3510% → 7%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
10.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
9.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
10.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-7
10.3%
Jake Luton sacked by Marlon Tuipulotu and Christian Rector for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+1
6.6%
Jake Luton run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+52
6.6%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 17 , Tyler Vaughns returns for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:4396% → 98%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
4.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 16 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
4.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
4.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-8
4.0%
JT Daniels run for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 49 JT Daniels fumbled, recovered by USC JT DanielsSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+17
3.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
3.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
3.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
2.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Devon Williams, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
2.0%
Michael Brown 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jermar Jefferson, broken up by Jordan IosefaSimilar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
2.3%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
2.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 8 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
2.4%
Jake Luton sacked by Christian Rector and Brandon Pili for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+2
2.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 17
OWN 29
0
2.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
2.2%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 99%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
1.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
1.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 8 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
1.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the USC 41Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:53
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 62 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q3 6:23
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)
+14
TD · Q3 10:42
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com