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UCLA

UCLA 21 at Oregon 42

ORE
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:45 · Tom Snee punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Theo Howard at the UCLA 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+19.0Home team on offense+10.1Score differential+4.6Garbage-time factor+2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:10: Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +5.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:45: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 63 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +6.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:15: Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +6.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:21: Joshua Kelley run for 25 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +8.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:12: Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 11 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +4.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 9UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ORE 4th & 2 at UCLA 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:08UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04ORE 4th & 10 at UCLA 29, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:23UCLA 4th & 11 at ORE 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:10UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19ORE 4th & 3 at UCLA 46, up 21
    Close callPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:45ORE 4th & 5 at UCLA 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:12UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:15ORE 4th & 3 at UCLA 3, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 39, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00UCLA 4th & 8 at ORE 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:11ORE 4th & 1 at UCLA 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.9%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:21ORE 4th & 3 at UCLA 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−1.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53ORE 4th & 15 at UCLA 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:43UCLA 4th & 10 at ORE 31, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:56UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:45UCLA 4th & 25 at ORE 34, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:23ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:10ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:45UCLA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:15ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:21UCLA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:20ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:12UCLA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:56ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
79.7%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
79.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 8 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
79.7%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
79.7%
CJ Verdell run for 9 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
79.7%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
79.7%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
79.7%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
79.7%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+5
79.7%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Schooler, B., PENALTY UCLA offside defense 5 yards to the UCLA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
79.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
79.7%
Blake Maimone punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4921% → 20%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
78.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 3 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
78.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Caleb WilsonSimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-5
79.0%
UCLA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 12Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 12
OWN 12
0
79.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 12
OWN 12
+56
79.8%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 44 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for 56 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3INT
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Joshua KelleySimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
79.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
79.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 22 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
79.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+23
79.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 23 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
79.2%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the Oregn 14Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
79.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
79.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted, touchback. Jevon Holland return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:4180% → 83%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.7%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+49
79.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 49 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
80.2%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-1
80.2%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
80.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon Redd, broken up by Adarius PickettSimilar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+28
79.6%
Blake Maimone pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 28 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.2%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
81.9%
Thmpsn-Robinson rush for 2 yards to the UCLA27, PENALTY UCLA holding 10 yards to the UCLA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+16
82.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 16 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
81.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
81.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 9 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
81.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
81.5%
Martell Irby run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
81.5%
Martell Irby run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-5
81.5%
UCLA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
81.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
82.0%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:0583% → 84%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
83.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 13 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
83.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 11 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
83.4%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
83.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 7 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
83.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 46 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for no gain to the UCLA 11 Adarius Pickett fumbled, recovered by Oregn Tony Brooks-JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:0185% → 90%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
84.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 5 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
84.5%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
89.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
89.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+6
88.8%
Martell Irby run for 6 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
88.9%
Martell Irby run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
88.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
89.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
89.1%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
90.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 5 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
90.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 4 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+7
90.2%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
90.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 4 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
90.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+12
90.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 12 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
90.8%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
90.7%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
90.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
90.2%
Blake Maimone punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:509% → 16%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
91.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 22 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
90.8%
UCLA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+63
84.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 63 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
85.2%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
85.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 12 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
85.6%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
85.7%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
85.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
84.7%
Tom Snee punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Theo Howard at the UCLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
85.2%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 7Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 11
OWN 7
-3
85.3%
Thmpsn-Robinson pass complete to Wilson, Caleb for 8 yards to the UCLA15, PENALTY UCLA holding 3 yards to the UCLA4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+2
85.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
85.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Caleb Wilson UCLA Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 12
OWN 6
0
85.6%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:2087% → 88%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
86.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 9 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
86.5%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
86.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 33 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
86.5%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the UCLA 4Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
87.4%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the UCLA 3Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
87.9%
Adam Stack 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 1:1513% → 12%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
86.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 9 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
86.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 4 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
86.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Christian Pabico for 15 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
85.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Martell Irby for 7 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
84.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+11
85.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 11 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
84.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Martell IrbySimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
84.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Caleb WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-5
85.8%
UCLA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+56
87.9%
JJ Molson 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
86.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
85.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
86.5%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+1
87.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 1 yd to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+15
87.4%
Stefan Flintoft pass complete to Delon Hurt for 15 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
85.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
85.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
86.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 34 yds, downed at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
88.5%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
88.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 5 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
88.2%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
88.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
88.6%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+16
88.3%
CJ Verdell run for 16 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
89.0%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
88.7%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
88.2%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the UCLA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · -29 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
87.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Justin Hollins for a loss of 15 yards to the UCLA 7 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by Oregn Justin Hollins , return for 0 yards , return for 11 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2291% → 97%
Q3 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
91.1%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
91.1%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the UCLA 2Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
90.7%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Mitchell, D., PENALTY UCLA pass interference 1 yards to the UCLA1, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:544% → 12%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
96.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
96.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
96.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 4 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
96.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
96.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 12 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
96.2%
Martell Irby run for 16 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
87.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 25 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 6 yds · 2:2894% → 94%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
93.7%
CJ Verdell run for 8 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-1
93.7%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 35Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
93.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob Breeland, broken up by Tyree ThompsonSimilar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+4
92.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 4 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
94.4%
Redd, Jaylon rush for 31 yards to the UCLA0, clock 00:28, PENALTY ORE personal foul 15 yards to the UCLA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 25
OPP 46
0
94.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 25
OPP 46
+10
94.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 10 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 36
0
94.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 15
OPP 36
0
94.2%
Tom Snee punt for 15 yds, downed at the UCLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
93.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+6
93.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
93.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 23 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
92.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
92.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
92.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
92.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Theo Howard, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
92.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Demetric Felton, broken up by Justin HollinsSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
92.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Joshua KelleySimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 10
OPP 31
0
93.1%
Matt Lynch run for no gain to the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:4196% → 99%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
95.7%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+67
99.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 67 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:081% → 6%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
98.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Demetric Felton for 8 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+11
98.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 11 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
98.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 22 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
98.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
94.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 11 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1696% → 100%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 6 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
96.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
96.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 6 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
96.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 9 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+54
99.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for 54 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25DOWNS
20 plays · 41 yds · 3:111% → 1%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Michael EzeikeSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Michael EzeikeSimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 10 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.3%
UCLA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Michael EzeikeSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+14
99.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 14 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Wilton Speight run for no gain to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
99.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
99.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Theo Howard for 12 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
99.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 11 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
99.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Michael EzeikeSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+9
99.3%
Martell Irby run for 9 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Michael Ezeike, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
99.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Martell IrbySimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
99.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Caleb Wilson, broken up by Troy DyeSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 10
OPP 19
-15
99.3%
Speight, Wilton pass complete to Wilson, Caleb for 19 yards to the ORE0, clock 02:45, PENALTY UCLA pass interference 15 yards to the ORE34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 25
OPP 34
0
99.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Martell IrbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
99.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 7 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+9
99.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
50
-3
99.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+6
99.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:21
Joshua Kelley run for 25 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q2 6:45
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 63 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q3 6:15
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com