Try the model
COLO

Colorado 34 at Arizona 42

ARIZ
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2018 · Arizona Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-2.7ARIZ 59.9%Tyler Francis 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 34 - HOME 35 · Q3 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:00 · Tyler Francis 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Home team on offense−0.4Pregame prior+2.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:50: Steven Montez pass complete to Kyle Evans for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Francis KICK) — COLO win probability +12.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:33: Steven Montez pass complete to Travon McMillian for 57 yds for a TD (Tyler Francis KICK) — COLO win probability +16.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:26: Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Tyler Francis KICK) — COLO win probability +16.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:11: Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 39 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARIZ win probability +17.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:04: Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 57 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +25.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:59COLO 4th & 2 at ARIZ 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:53ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:56COLO 4th & 8 at ARIZ 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:33ARIZ 4th & 25 at COLO 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:33COLO 4th & 24 at COLO 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:28COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:11COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:39ARIZ 4th & 12 at COLO 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−3.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−12.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:00COLO 4th & 3 at ARIZ 31, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%−1.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:04COLO 4th & 3 at ARIZ 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−2.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−4.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:12COLO 4th & 9 at ARIZ 29, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−9.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:35COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:33ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:15ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:50COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:59ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:33COLO Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:26COLO Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:11ARIZ Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:04ARIZ Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.6%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
58.6%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+59
58.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 42 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 59 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5842% → 41%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
58.4%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
58.4%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+2
58.5%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 2
OPP 6
-2
58.6%
K.D. Nixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 8 K.D. Nixon fumbled, forced by Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, recovered by Ariz PJ JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
58.8%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-4
58.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Ariz 4Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+5
58.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 5 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+4
58.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
58.5%
Dylan Klumph punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Colo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:1941% → 46%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
58.7%
Steven Montez sacked by JB Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+10
58.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 10 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+15
58.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 15 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
58.2%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
58.2%
Steven Montez run for 6 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.1%
Steven Montez run for no gain to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
58.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 13 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
58.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kyle Evans for 4 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
58.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+9
58.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 9 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
54.1%
K.D. Nixon run for 8 yds for a TD (Tyler Francis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
55.2%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 7 J.J. Taylor fumbled, forced by Rick Gamboa, recovered by Colo Nate LandmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2646% → 46%
Q1 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
54.0%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
54.0%
Steven Montez sacked by Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
54.2%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
53.8%
Tyler Francis 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:2254% → 53%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
54.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 15 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
54.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 11 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
55.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+17
55.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 17 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
56.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
56.1%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+12
55.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 12 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
56.1%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 18Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 12
OPP 18
-10
56.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 22
OPP 28
+4
55.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 24
-7
51.7%
Khalil Tate sacked by Carson Wells for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 14:33
4TH & 25
OPP 31
+49
52.5%
Lucas Havrisik 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
52.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Travon McMillian for 11 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
51.9%
Steven Montez run for 4 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-13
51.4%
Steven Montez sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 13 yards to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 19
OWN 27
-5
53.1%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 24
OWN 22
0
53.2%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
4TH & 24
OWN 22
0
53.6%
Davis Price punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:2953% → 62%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
52.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 15 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
54.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Colo 46Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
54.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+40
61.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 40 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
57.2%
Steven Montez sacked by Tony Fields II for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 16
OWN 32
0
58.3%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+1
59.0%
Steven Montez run for 1 yd to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
59.4%
Davis Price punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:4360% → 71%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
60.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+9
60.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
60.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 19 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
62.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 10 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+33
62.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 33 yds to the Colo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
63.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Colo 2Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.1%
Nathan Tilford run for 1 yd to the Colo 1Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 1 yd for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 3:2031% → 48%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+18
68.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kabion Ento for 18 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
68.2%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+14
67.7%
Travon McMillian run for 14 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
66.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kabion Ento for 12 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
66.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 2 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
66.2%
Kyle Evans run for no gain to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+25
66.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 25 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
65.0%
Kyle Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 17Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+17
52.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kyle Evans for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Francis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5160% → 72%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
59.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
59.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+45
59.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 45 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
63.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-7
63.6%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+20
60.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 8 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (12 Yards) to the Colo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
71.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2632% → 50%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
68.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 16 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
66.7%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+57
50.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Travon McMillian for 57 yds for a TD (Tyler Francis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:2557% → 65%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
57.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 15
OWN 37
-6
55.0%
Khalil Tate sacked by Carson Wells for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 21
OWN 31
+11
54.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 11 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+21
54.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 21 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+55
64.8%
Lucas Havrisik 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3439% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
61.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
61.2%
Steven Montez run for 1 yd to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
61.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 9 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
59.3%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
59.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
-5
60.5%
COLORADO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+21
62.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kabion Ento for 21 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
57.8%
Steven Montez run for 1 yd to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-11
57.9%
Steven Montez sacked by JB Brown for a loss of 11 yards to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+15
61.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
57.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
56.5%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
56.5%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+20
40.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Tyler Francis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0745% → 66%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
45.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
47.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+17
46.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
48.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+39
66.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 39 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
61.6%
Travon McMillian run for 21 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
58.3%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
59.7%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
61.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Kabion Ento, broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
63.0%
Davis Price punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:3462% → 68%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
62.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 12 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
62.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 19 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
65.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
65.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+9
66.1%
Anthony Mariscal run for 9 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
66.7%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
67.6%
Khalil Tate run for 3 yds to the Colo 18Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-5
67.6%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
65.3%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Devaughn CooperSimilar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+41
68.3%
Josh Pollack 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:3934% → 40%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
66.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
65.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 5 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
63.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 7 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
62.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jaylon Jackson, broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
63.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
61.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 1 yd to the Ariz 37Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
61.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Kabion EntoSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+6
62.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+48
59.9%
Tyler Francis 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:5163% → 87%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
62.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
62.7%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+25
61.1%
Khalil Tate run for 25 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
86.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 57 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 46 yds · 2:5217% → 16%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
83.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 17 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Juwann WinfreeSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
81.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
79.6%
Travon McMillian pass incomplete, broken up by Colin SchoolerSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
79.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 7 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
79.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jaylon Jackson, broken up by PJ JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+6
81.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 6 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
78.1%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
77.6%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-7
81.5%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 9
OPP 29
0
84.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Kabion Ento, broken up by Azizi HearnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
89.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 13 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.0%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
89.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 4 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
89.4%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted K.D. Nixon return for no gain to the Colo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24INT
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:0014% → 16%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
86.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kabion Ento for 23 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
83.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 5 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+8
83.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kabion Ento for 8 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
82.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
81.8%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
82.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Kabion EntoSimilar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+1
83.9%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Troy Young return for 1 yd to the Ariz 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25END OF GAME
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:2794% → 97%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
93.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
93.4%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+15
93.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 15 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
93.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 8 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+6
95.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
95.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
96.1%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+21
96.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 21 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:04
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 57 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)
+25.7
TD · Q3 7:11
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 39 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+17.8
TD · Q3 9:26
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Tyler Francis KICK)
-16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com