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ORST

Oregon State 41 at Colorado 34

COLO
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:09 · Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 38Pregame prior+39.5Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:44: Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK) — COLO win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:30: Jack Colletto run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:13: Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Luton pass to Isaiah Hodgins for Two-Point Conversion) — ORST win probability +25.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 2:05: Evan Price 34 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +6.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:29: Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair PAT BLOCKED) — ORST win probability +40.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ORST made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:03COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:31ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:05COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:50ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:06COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 5:09ORST 4th & 19 at ORST 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:12ORST 4th & 2 at COLO 12, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.1%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:12COLO 4th & 4 at ORST 4, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:48ORST 4th & 14 at ORST 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:15ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:55COLO 4th & 12 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:48ORST 4th & 4 at COLO 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:17ORST 4th & 2 at COLO 8, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:17COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:52ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:35COLO 4th & 6 at ORST 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:30COLO 4th & 1 at ORST 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−1.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:29ORST 4th & 8 at COLO 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−3.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:29COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:05COLO 4th & 12 at ORST 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−4.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−19.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:29ORST 4th & 8 at COLO 10, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−4.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−6.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 2:00COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:48COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:44COLO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:48COLO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:17ORST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:30ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:13ORST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:29ORST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−9.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.9%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
93.9%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 7 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
93.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
93.9%
Jack Colletto run for no gain to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 37
0
93.9%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
93.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 40 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for no gain to the Colo 21 Ronnie Blackmon fumbled, recovered by Colo Ronnie BlackmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
93.5%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
93.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 4 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
93.5%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
93.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 12 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
93.5%
McMillian, Trav rush for 2 yards to the COLO46 (Hughes-Murray), PENALTY OSU IS 5 yards to the COLO49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 5
OWN 49
0
93.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-3
93.5%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
93.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Juwann WinfreeSimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
93.5%
Davis Price punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
92.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+10
92.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-12
92.8%
Jack Colletto sacked by Carson Wells for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 22
OWN 11
+4
92.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+10
92.9%
Jack Colletto run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+44
92.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the COLORADO 31 COLORADO Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
92.2%
Steven Montez run for 5 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-2
92.3%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+3
92.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 3 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Davis Price punt for 37 yds, downed at the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
91.7%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
91.7%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Isaiah Hodgins, broken up by Trey UdoffiaSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
91.8%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
91.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Colo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
91.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Juwann WinfreeSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
91.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Juwann WinfreeSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+9
91.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 9 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Davis Price punt for 53 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for no gain to the OrgSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
91.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-5
91.3%
Jack Colletto sacked by Terrance Lang for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 13
OWN 11
-6
91.4%
Jack Colletto sacked by Mustafa Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 19
OWN 5
+5
91.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:0791% → 92%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
91.1%
Travon McMillian run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
91.2%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Aaron Haigler) to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+2
91.1%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+32
92.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 32 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:418% → 10%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
91.7%
Jack Colletto run for no gain to the OrgSt 33 Jack Colletto fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Jack Colletto for a 1ST down , return for 13 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+6
91.6%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+36
91.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 36 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
91.6%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 6 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-1
91.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
90.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+6
90.5%
Jack Colletto run for 6 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+1
90.3%
Trevon Bradford run for 1 yd to the Colo 12Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
89.6%
Jordan Choukair 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:0090% → 91%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
89.9%
Steven Montez run for 21 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
90.4%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+14
90.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 14 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
90.4%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+10
90.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 10 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
90.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 8 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+15
90.5%
Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Nixon, K.D., PENALTY OSU pass interference (Williams, D.) 15 yards to the OSU4, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
90.5%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
90.5%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
90.3%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 4 Steven Montez fumbled, recovered by Colo Steven MontezSimilar
Q2 9:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
90.5%
Evan Price 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1710% → 7%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.4%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+27
93.1%
Jack Colletto pass intercepted for a TD Dante Wigley return for 27 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
93.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
93.2%
Jack Colletto sacked by Alex Tchangam for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+48
93.3%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 48 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2593% → 97%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
92.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 8 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+2
93.2%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+47
93.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 47 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
93.3%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
93.3%
Kyle Evans run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
97.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 6 yds · 2:294% → 3%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
96.3%
Colletto, Jack pass complete to Bradford, T. for 5 yards to the OSU30 (Wigley, Dante), PENALTY OSU personal foul (64) 12 yards to the OSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+13
96.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
96.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
96.2%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-12
96.1%
Jack Colletto sacked by Nate Landman for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 22
OWN 24
0
96.4%
Jack Colletto pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+7
96.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
96.7%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Colo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:1297% → 98%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.4%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
97.4%
Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Nixon, K.D., PENALTY OSU holding (Hayes, Kaleb) 10 yards to the COLO42, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
97.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 10 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
97.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 6 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
97.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-8
97.4%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 12
50
0
97.6%
Davis Price punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+13
96.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete, broken up by Terrance LangSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
96.9%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.3%
Travon McMillian run for 75 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:314% → 3%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
95.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
94.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 8 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
95.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
95.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+13
95.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 13 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
94.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 2 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
94.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+7
93.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 7 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
94.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Colo 37Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
94.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
93.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 14:48
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+15
93.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 15 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
93.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Colo 9Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+1
92.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Colo 8Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
93.2%
Timmy Hernandez pass incomplete to Jake LutonSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+8
97.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Juwann Winfree, broken up by Dwayne WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.9%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
97.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 5 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
98.0%
Steven Montez run for 1 yd to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
98.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 3 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
97.9%
Davis Price punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
97.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
97.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+13
97.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 13 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
97.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Nate LandmanSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+6
97.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 51 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 6 yds to the Colo 36 COLORADO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Colo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:5598% → 99%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
97.9%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
97.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+49
97.9%
Steven Montez run for 49 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
98.1%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
98.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
98.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Juwann WinfreeSimilar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
98.5%
Evan Price 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Elu Aydon TEAM return for no gain to the OrgSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:052% → 5%
Q3 2:35
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+33
98.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 33 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
98.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 16 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-9
97.8%
Jake Luton sacked by Nate Landman for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 19
OPP 33
0
97.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 19
OPP 33
+12
98.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 12 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
98.1%
Trevon Bradford run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+10
98.1%
COLORADO Penalty, targeting (Kyle Trego) to the Colo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
97.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+5
98.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Colo 2Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
94.7%
Jack Colletto run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.1%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Frank Fillip) to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
96.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 11 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
96.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 17 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.4%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
96.3%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
96.3%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 14:30
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
95.9%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the OrgSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:525% → 7%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
95.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+28
94.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 28 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
94.2%
Jake Luton run for no gain to the Colo 22 Jake Luton fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-10
94.5%
Luton, Jake rush for loss of 1 yard to the COLO23, PENALTY OSU holding (Lavaka, Gus) 10 yards to the COLO32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 22
OPP 32
+11
94.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 11 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+3
95.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 3 yds to the Colo 18Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
92.6%
Jordan Choukair 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
93.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
93.2%
Davis Price punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:227% → 33%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
93.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 10 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
92.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
92.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 8 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+32
92.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 32 yds to the Colo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
66.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Luton pass to Isaiah Hodgins for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:0879% → 94%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
78.7%
Travon McMillian run for 11 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
79.8%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
81.0%
Kyle Evans run for 7 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
81.3%
Kyle Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+39
79.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 39 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
83.2%
Kyle Evans run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
83.2%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-10
81.8%
Montez, Steven rush for 6 yards to the OSU4, PENALTY COLO holding (Fillip, Frank) 10 yards to the OSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+3
79.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 3 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+34
94.2%
Evan Price 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:3611% → 54%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
88.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (Trey Udoffia) to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
85.2%
Luton, Jake pass incomplete to Hodgins, Isaiah, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Udoffia, Trey) 15 yards to the COLO36, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
84.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
84.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+10
86.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 10 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+7
83.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 7 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
82.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 12 yds to the Colo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
78.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
78.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+2
82.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 2 yds to the Colo 10Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+10
46.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 29MISSED FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:2359% → 63%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
58.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 19 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
63.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+20
61.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 20 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+53
63.3%
Davis Price 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 30END OF HALF
11 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 41%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
40.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Colo 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
40.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Colo 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-5
43.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Isaiah Hodgins) to the Colo 25Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+11
43.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 11 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
40.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 6 yds to the Colo 8Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Colo 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+21
63.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 21 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony Brown, broken up by Shemar SmithSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
58.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Juwann Winfree, broken up by Shemar SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-58.6
TD · Q4 0:29
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair PAT BLOCKED)
-40.8
TD · Q4 7:13
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Luton pass to Isaiah Hodgins for Two-Point Conversion)
-25.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com