Try the model
ORE

Oregon 15 at Arizona 44

ARIZ
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Arizona Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:25 · Dylan Klumph punt for 34 yds, downed at the Oregn 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Home team on offense+26.1Pregame prior−9.6Score differential+16.1Garbage-time factor+8.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:43: Josh Pollack 32 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +6.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:17: Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 29 yds for a TD, (J. Herbert Run For Two-point Conversion) — ORE win probability +10.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:39: J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +11.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:30: Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +17.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:49: Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ORE made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:11ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34ARIZ 4th & 9 at ORE 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:20ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:40ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:52ARIZ 4th & 5 at ORE 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:53ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  8. Q1 2:21ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:43ARIZ 4th & 6 at ORE 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:19ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:30ARIZ 4th & 5 at ORE 5, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:05ARIZ 4th & 1 at ORE 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−1.8
    74% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−7.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:19ORE 4th & 18 at ORE 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:52ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 46, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:35ORE 4th & 16 at ORE 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:25ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 31, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:40ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 37, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:43ARIZ 4th & 19 at ARIZ 6, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:30ORE 4th & 5 at midfield, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:14ARIZ 4th & 1 at ORE 26, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:33ORE 4th & 11 at ARIZ 41, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:20ORE 4th & 1 at ARIZ 1, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:08ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:17ORE Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:39ARIZ Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:30ARIZ Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:49ARIZ Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:17ORE Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:32ARIZ Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4474% → 73%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
26.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
27.2%
Blake Maimone punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5527% → 30%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
27.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 21 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
27.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
27.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 9 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
28.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 17 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
28.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
29.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 22 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0971% → 69%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
29.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 3 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+5
29.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 5 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
30.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Ryan BaySimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+24
30.6%
Blake Maimone punt for 48 yds , Shun Brown returns for 24 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4132% → 31%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
31.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
31.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
31.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Devaughn CooperSimilar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
31.3%
Dylan Klumph punt for 35 yds, downed at the Oregn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1068% → 67%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
31.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 3 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
31.9%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
32.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+66
33.0%
Tom Snee punt for 51 yds ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3333% → 34%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
32.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 11 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
33.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
33.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
34.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
33.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
33.9%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 21 Travis Dye fumbled, recovered by Ariz Christian YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3535% → 36%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
35.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
35.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
35.3%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
35.5%
Josh Pollack 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5265% → 64%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
34.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 12 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
34.6%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
34.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
35.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
35.7%
Tom Snee punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2437% → 37%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
36.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 11 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
37.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
37.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
37.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
37.1%
Dylan Klumph punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:1362% → 60%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
37.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Oregn CJ VerdellSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+2
38.5%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+1
39.7%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Scottie Young Jr. return for 1 yd to the Ariz 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:0640% → 50%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
40.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Thomas Marcus Jr. for 17 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
40.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+3
40.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+7
40.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 7 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+11
41.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 11 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
42.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
42.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
42.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
49.8%
Josh Pollack 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2053% → 52%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.9%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.0%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
47.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+10
48.2%
Tom Snee punt blocked by Chacho Ulloa blocked by Chacho Ulloa Kylan Wilborn return for 10 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4552% → 53%
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
52.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Oregn 5Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.9%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
52.9%
Josh Pollack 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0850% → 57%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.9%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
50.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 13 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
50.3%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
51.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+20
54.3%
Justin Herbert run for 20 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
53.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 10 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
43.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 29 yds for a TD, (J. Herbert Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
21 plays · 88 yds · 7:2646% → 70%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
46.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+2
46.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+7
47.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
48.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 5 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
50.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 3 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+20
50.8%
Khalil Tate run for 5 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
52.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+9
52.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 9 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
54.6%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+8
55.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 8 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
55.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 2 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
53.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
55.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 7 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
55.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
57.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
57.8%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ugochukwu Amadi) to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.2%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 9 yds · 1:1134% → 31%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.1%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
65.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 6 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
66.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
66.6%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Dillon Mitchell) to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+12
67.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Lorenzo Burns) to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
65.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
66.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Shane Lemieux) to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 15
OWN 37
-3
67.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 18
OWN 34
0
68.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+61
68.7%
Blake Maimone punt for 56 yds ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the Ariz 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
70.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
69.8%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Thomas Graham Jr. return for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4834% → 31%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
66.4%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
67.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
67.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
69.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 50 yds, downed at the Ariz 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
9 plays · 96 yds · 3:1071% → 90%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+64
70.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 64 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
73.0%
Anthony Mariscal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+2
73.5%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+18
70.3%
Khalil Tate run for 8 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
71.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cody Creason) to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+10
72.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 10 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
72.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
90.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4912% → 10%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.4%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
88.1%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
88.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-9
89.0%
Justin Herbert sacked by Tony Fields II for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
90.3%
Blake Maimone punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0593% → 93%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
92.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
92.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
92.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 34 yds, downed at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4010% → 8%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
90.3%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
91.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
91.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
92.3%
Blake Maimone punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:5094% → 94%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
93.6%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-9
93.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+5
94.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-9
94.2%
Khalil Tate sacked by Jalen Jelks for a loss of 9 yards to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 19
OWN 6
+41
94.1%
Dylan Klumph punt for 41 yds , Charles Sudduth returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 48 Charles Sudduth fumbled, recovered by Ariz Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:4596% → 99%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
95.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 1 yd to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
95.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 8
50
+12
96.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 12 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
96.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 25
OWN 20
-10
99.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the Ariz 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:051% → 1%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 1 yd to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+4
99.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 5
50
0
99.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Brenden SchoolerSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 5
50
0
99.4%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
50
+15
99.5%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deommodore Lenoir) to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.5%
Anthony Mariscal run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+5
99.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 5 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
99.5%
Anthony Mariscal run for 2 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
99.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:510% → 2%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
99.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 10 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-4
99.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+7
99.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 6
50
+10
99.7%
Justin Herbert run for 10 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 11
OPP 41
+16
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 16 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 15 yds to the Ariz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.8%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 30TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3899% → 100%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
99.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.3%
Anthony Mariscal run for 2 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
99.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+7
99.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.5%
Khalil Tate run for 15 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.5%
Anthony Mariscal run for 3 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 19 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 31DOWNS
13 plays · 74 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 7 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 12 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 15 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarrius Wallace) to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 5 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 6 yds to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.9%
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd to the Ariz 6Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
100.0%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:05100% → 100%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
100.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the Ariz 1Similar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
100.0%
Branden Leon run for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:30
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q2 1:39
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q2 9:17
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 29 yds for a TD, (J. Herbert Run For Two-point Conversion)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com