Try the model
CAL

California 49 at Oregon State 7

ORST
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Reser Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:26 · Jack Colletto pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 4 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Home team on offense−55.6Score differential−45.2Pregame prior−1.3Garbage-time factor−25.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:39: Chase Garbers pass complete to Malik McMorris for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +3.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:59: Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 29 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +6.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:50: Patrick Laird run for 4 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +8.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:28: Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +4.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:40: Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +3.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 10 of 12CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:20CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:41ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:32ORST 4th & 5 at CAL 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:25ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59ORST 4th & 16 at ORST 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:26CAL 4th & 5 at ORST 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    88.0%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:28ORST 4th & 6 at CAL 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:37CAL 4th & 4 at ORST 38, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:19ORST 4th & 2 at CAL 5, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:39ORST 4th & 14 at CAL 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:18CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:09ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:44ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:16CAL 4th & 2 at ORST 36, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:26ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 44, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 2:39CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:59CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:50CAL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:28CAL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:40ORST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:44CAL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:26CAL Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:20CAL Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
14 plays · 23 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
27.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
27.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-15
27.9%
Blount, Conor pass complete to Hodgins, Isaiah for 16 yards to the OSU48, out-of-bounds (Davis, Ashtyn), PENALTY OSU personal foul (Lavaka, Gus) 15 yards to the OSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 17
0
27.9%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 17
+20
27.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 5 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
27.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
27.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
27.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
27.9%
Conor Blount run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
27.9%
Conor Blount sacked by Tevin Paul for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 39
-4
27.9%
Conor Blount sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 35
+6
27.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
27.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 55 yds, downed at the Cal 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
30.6%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 10
0
30.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+7
30.7%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
30.5%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+5
30.3%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
30.4%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
30.4%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
30.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
30.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for no gain to the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
32.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
32.1%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
31.7%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+50
31.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 50 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:0168% → 72%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
32.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
32.5%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+15
32.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 15 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+55
31.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 55 yds to the OREGONST 3 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
31.2%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Malik McMorris for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
29.2%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 24 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
30.2%
Trevon Bradford run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+11
29.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 11 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-2
30.4%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
29.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FUMBLE
14 plays · 92 yds · 0:0671% → 72%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
29.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+6
29.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
29.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 14 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
28.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+25
28.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 25 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
28.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-3
28.1%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+20
28.7%
Chase Garbers run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
27.9%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+4
27.9%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
27.9%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
27.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Maurice Ways, broken up by Kaleb HayesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+3
28.1%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
27.9%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 2 Chase Garbers fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Andrzej Hughes-MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
29.6%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
29.5%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Jordan KunaszykSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
28.9%
Conor Blount run for no gain to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 10
OWN 2
0
28.6%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 38 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 1:1273% → 80%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
26.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+2
26.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
20.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 29 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
21.7%
Conor Blount sacked by Evan Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+1
21.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
21.3%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
21.3%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:4780% → 89%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
20.3%
Chase Garbers run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
20.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 7 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+5
20.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
20.2%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+24
20.1%
Patrick Laird run for 24 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
19.0%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
11.0%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+33
13.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 33 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
15.1%
Conor Blount pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 11
50
-5
14.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Sumner Houston) to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
14.3%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 16
OWN 45
0
14.1%
Conor Blount pass intercepted Traveon Beck return for no gain to the Cal 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
9.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 13 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
9.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
9.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 5 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
9.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kanawai Noa, broken up by Jaydon GrantSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
10.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:5113% → 13%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
12.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 2 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+33
12.9%
Conor Blount run for 18 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Jaylinn Hawkins) to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
14.1%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
14.0%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+9
12.5%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST down lat. to Isaiah Hodgins for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 24 for a 1ST down lat. to Jack Colletto for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 24 for a 1ST down to Artavis Pierce for 36 yds to the OREGONST 19 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, illegal forward pass ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:2790% → 95%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+53
10.3%
Patrick Laird run for 53 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
9.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 12 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
9.4%
Chase Garbers run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
4.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
6.4%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
5.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
6.5%
Jack Colletto sacked by Chris Palmer for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+13
6.2%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 13 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
5.8%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
50
+2
7.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
6.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
6.3%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 6
OPP 46
-10
6.3%
Jack Colletto sacked by Trey Turner III for a loss of 10 yards to the OrgSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
3.8%
Nikko Remigio run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+4
3.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+3
3.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+2
4.4%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:395% → 8%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
4.9%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
4.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Zeandae Johnson) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
5.2%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 10 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
5.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
5.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+11
5.4%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 11 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
5.6%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+14
5.4%
Jack Colletto run for 14 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
5.6%
Champ Flemings run for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
5.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
5.2%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+4
5.1%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 4 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.2%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
5.2%
Jack Colletto run for 11 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
5.4%
Jack Colletto sacked by Jordan Kunaszyk for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+4
5.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
5.2%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
5.1%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3597% → 98%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
2.9%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+11
2.9%
Patrick Laird run for 11 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
2.9%
Patrick Laird run for 13 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
2.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
2.7%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+3
2.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 3 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
1.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for no gain to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
3.2%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-6
3.2%
Jack Colletto pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 2 yds to the OrgSt 16 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Isaiah Hodgins) to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+7
3.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
3.2%
Jack Colletto pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+35
3.2%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the 50 yard line OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:4499% → 100%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
50
+2
1.5%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
1.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+15
1.5%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Shemar Smith) to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
1.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
1.5%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+24
0.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 24 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Sumner Houston) to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-3
0.3%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+7
0.3%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 7 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-2
0.3%
Jack Colletto sacked by Deon White and Evan Weaver for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
0.3%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 4:11100% → 100%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
0.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Jake Curhan) to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+6
0.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 6 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+18
0.2%
Brandon McIlwain run for 18 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
0.2%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-2
0.2%
Chase Garbers sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+7
0.2%
Chase Garbers run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+6
0.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 6 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
0.2%
Patrick Laird run for 30 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24INT TD
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:060% → 0%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
0.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
0.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.1%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to B.J. BaylorSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
0.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+6
0.1%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Isaiah Smalls for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+4
0.1%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 4 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+54
0.1%
Jack Colletto pass intercepted for a TD Josh Drayden return for 54 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:50
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
-8
TD · Q2 6:59
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 29 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
-6.2
TD · Q3 13:28
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
-4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com