Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 37 at California 7

CAL
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-0.2CAL 1.0%JJ Molson 42 yd FG GOODAWAY 30 - HOME 7 · Q4 7:04
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:04 · JJ Molson 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense−51.1Pregame prior+2.7Score differential−27.8Garbage-time factor−8.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:18: Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +6.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:38: Patrick Laird run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +9.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q3 6:03: Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +15.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:11: Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 49 — UCLA win probability +13.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:36: Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UCLA 4th & 17 at UCLA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:01CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:11UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:09CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:32UCLA 4th & 8 at CAL 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:32CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:07UCLA 4th & 6 at CAL 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:07CAL 4th & 6 at UCLA 47, down 13
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:28UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 24, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:01CAL 4th & 5 at UCLA 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:03CAL 4th & 1 at UCLA 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.7%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:11UCLA 4th & 2 at CAL 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−1.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−10.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:30CAL 4th & 1 at UCLA 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−2.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:58UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 45, up 20
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:04UCLA 4th & 5 at CAL 25, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:18UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:38CAL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:03UCLA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:36UCLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
72.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
72.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
72.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 1 yd to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-12
72.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Evan Rambo for a loss of 12 yards to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
72.2%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
71.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 5 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
72.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
71.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
71.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 40 yds, downed at the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
71.7%
Demetric Felton run for 3 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+7
71.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 20Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
71.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 7 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
71.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 5 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+7
71.8%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 47 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
71.3%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
71.6%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
71.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 7 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
71.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+4
71.6%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
71.8%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the UCLA 41 Patrick Laird fumbled, forced by Darnay Holmes, recovered by UCLA Adarius PickettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:1830% → 37%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
69.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 1
50
+4
69.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
69.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+10
69.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 10 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+13
69.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 13 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
69.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
69.4%
Kazmeir Allen run for 2 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+14
69.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 14 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
63.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
64.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 11 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
65.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
65.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-2
65.3%
Brandon McIlwain run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
64.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7FG
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:4037% → 42%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
63.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+13
63.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 13 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
62.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
62.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
62.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+46
62.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 46 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
61.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
61.7%
Michael Ezeike run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
62.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
58.5%
JJ Molson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 9 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
58.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
57.8%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for no gain to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
56.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+40
56.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 40 yds to the Cal 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1745% → 53%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
55.5%
Dymond Lee run for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+7
56.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+12
52.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 12 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
51.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+5
51.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the Cal 16 Joshua Kelley fumbled, forced by Jordan Kunaszyk, recovered by UCLA for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
51.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
51.2%
Kazmeir Allen run for 4 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
51.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Demetric Felton, broken up by Tevin PaulSimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
47.0%
JJ Molson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
47.5%
Patrick Laird run for 10 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
47.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
47.5%
UCLA Penalty, personal foul (Krys Barnes) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
48.9%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-1
49.2%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
48.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
48.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:0556% → 58%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
44.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+2
43.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
43.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
41.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
41.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 3 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+19
42.0%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 42 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 19 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:1139% → 41%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
38.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 14 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
40.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 9 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+4
40.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Ian Bunting for 4 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
40.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
43.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 5 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
41.9%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
41.3%
Greg Thomas 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
39.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2243% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.7%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
43.3%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
43.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
43.5%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 38 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 19
OWN 28
+12
42.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 12 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+11
44.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 11 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
44.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 7 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+12
45.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Ray Hudson for 12 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
46.3%
Patrick Laird pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 11 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
46.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+14
46.3%
Patrick Laird run for 14 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.0%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 2:3054% → 76%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
46.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Daniel Scott) to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
44.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 24 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
42.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+29
42.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 18 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (11 Yards) to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
41.9%
UCLA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
42.2%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+15
42.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 15 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0033% → 35%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 8 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
33.7%
Patrick Laird run for 10 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
33.9%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
34.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 4 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
35.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
34.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the UCLA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:3579% → 97%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
20.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+20
21.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 20 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
20.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+8
20.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-1
20.5%
Martell Irby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+7
22.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 7 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
20.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+9
16.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 9 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
16.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
4.9%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+13
4.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 13 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
5.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Tyler ManoaSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
5.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+20
4.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Ian Bunting for 20 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
5.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
5.4%
Bryce Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 49 Bryce Turner fumbled, recovered by Cal Bryce Turner , return for no gain to the Cal 47 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+13
4.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 13 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
5.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted Keisean Lucier-South return for no gain to the UCLA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:2297% → 97%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
2.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
2.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+3
2.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 3 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
2.7%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
1.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 12 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
1.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+4
1.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 4 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
1.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted Krys Barnes return for no gain to the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:2798% → 99%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
1.9%
Martell Irby run for 3 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-5
1.8%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Christaphany Murray) to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+3
1.9%
Martell Irby run for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+4
1.9%
Martell Irby run for 4 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
1.0%
JJ Molson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22Uncategorized
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
0.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 3 yds to the Cal 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:03
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
-15.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:11
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 49
-13.5
TD · Q4 13:36
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com