Try the model
COLO

Colorado 20 at USC 31

USC
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:19 · Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. Nixon, broken up by Greg Johnson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 195Home team on offense+24.8Pregame prior+0.9Score differential+8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.3Garbage-time factor+7.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:58: Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 49 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +6.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:11: JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 27 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +8.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:33: JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 65 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +7.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:10: JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +6.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:16: Steven Montez pass intercepted for a TD Ajene Harris return for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +9.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8COLO made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 14:54COLO 4th & 22 at COLO 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:54USC 4th & 1 at USC 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:17COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:57USC 4th & 6 at COLO 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:08COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:33COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00USC 4th & 19 at USC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:11COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:27USC 4th & 23 at USC 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:59COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:33COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00COLO 4th & 21 at COLO 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:59USC 4th & 2 at COLO 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:15COLO 4th & 3 at USC 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:22USC 4th & 17 at USC 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:27USC 4th & 7 at USC 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:37COLO 4th & 14 at USC 46, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:05USC 4th & 10 at COLO 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−2.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:23COLO 4th & 5 at USC 19, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:19COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 11:58COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:11USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:33USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:10USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:16USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:46COLO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.1%
JT Daniels pass intercepted Drew Lewis return for no gain to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
67.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 43Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+1
67.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 1 yd to the USC 42Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 12
OPP 42
-10
67.1%
Steven Montez sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 14:54
4TH & 22
OWN 48
-2
67.1%
Davis Price punt for 40 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 46 USC Penalty, Offensive holding (5 Yards) to the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
66.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
66.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+7
66.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
66.8%
Reid Budrovich punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
66.4%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 38Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
66.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 5 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
66.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
66.8%
Davis Price punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
66.6%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+12
66.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
66.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 1 yd to the USC 35Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
66.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+15
66.5%
[NHSG], Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Petite, Tyler, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Worthington, Evan) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
50
+5
67.1%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-1
67.2%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
67.0%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
66.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Colo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
66.0%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
65.8%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+9
66.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 9 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
65.8%
Kyle Evans run for no gain to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
65.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 9 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
65.4%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
65.4%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-1
65.3%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
65.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
66.0%
Davis Price punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
65.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+4
66.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
65.7%
JT Daniels pass intercepted Evan Worthington return for no gain to the Colo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
64.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-1
64.9%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+2
65.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 2 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
65.7%
Davis Price punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:3966% → 65%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
65.6%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 29Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+14
65.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 14 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
66.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
66.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Vavae MalepeaiSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+8
65.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
66.8%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-15
66.7%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the USC 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 45
0
65.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 45
+27
64.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 42 , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 27 yds to the Colo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:5937% → 44%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
62.9%
Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
62.2%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the USC 49Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+49
55.8%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 49 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:4058% → 67%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
57.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
57.7%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC false start (Lobendahn, Toa) 5 yards to the USC26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 15
OWN 26
0
57.4%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+19
56.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 19 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
58.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 5
50
-5
59.5%
[NHSG], Daniels, JT pass complete to Jones, Velus for 1 yard to the COLO49, PENALTY USC illegal motion (Jones, Velus) 5 yards to the USC45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+28
58.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 28 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
67.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 27 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.5%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
63.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
64.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 6 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
64.7%
Davis Price punt for 41 yds , Velus Jones Jr. returns for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:4865% → 62%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-11
64.9%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 11 yards to the USC 19Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 21
OWN 19
+5
63.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 5 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 16
OWN 24
-7
62.8%
JT Daniels sacked by Mustafa Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 17Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 23
OWN 17
0
62.2%
Reid Budrovich punt for 54 yds, downed at the Colo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
60.3%
[NHSG], Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Shenault, Laviska, PENALTY COLO ineligible downfield on pass (Pursell, Colby) 5 yards to the COLO24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 15
OWN 24
-9
61.0%
Steven Montez sacked by Liam Jimmons for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 24
OWN 15
+13
61.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 13 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
61.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyre, broken up by John Houston Jr.Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+12
62.7%
Davis Price punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 38 , Tyler Vaughns returns for 12 yds to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:4165% → 72%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
64.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+65
72.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 65 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.0%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
72.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
73.2%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.6%
Davis Price punt for 39 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:4775% → 82%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
74.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+39
75.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 39 yds to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
75.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
82.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18END OF HALF
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:5820% → 21%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
80.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
79.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 4 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
79.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Travon McMillian for 6 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+6
78.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 6 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
81.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for a 1ST down USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ajene Harris) to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
79.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Travon McMillian for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
82.9%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
83.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 19 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
81.5%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-2
81.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-11
82.5%
[NHSG], Montez, Steven rush for 11 yards to the USC43 (Houston, John), PENALTY COLO holding (Tonz, Brett) 11 yards to the COLO35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 35
+1
83.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 1 yd to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
83.5%
Davis Price punt for 55 yds, downed at the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
84.9%
Michael Pittman Jr. run for 11 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
85.1%
JT Daniels run for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+11
85.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 11 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
85.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
85.8%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
85.9%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
85.8%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-10
85.2%
[NHSG], Ware, Aca'Cedric rush for 6 yards to the COLO41 (Fisher, Nick), PENALTY USC holding (Edoga, Chuma) 10 yards to the USC43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+10
85.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
84.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21INT TD
3 plays · -12 yds · 1:3514% → 4%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
86.1%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 17Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-9
86.4%
Steven Montez sacked by Malik Dorton and Porter Gustin for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 8Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+6
96.0%
Steven Montez pass intercepted for a TD Ajene Harris return for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:015% → 4%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
95.5%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+24
95.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 24 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-10
95.5%
[NHSG], McMillian, Travon rush for 3 yards to the USC39 (Houston, John;Rector, Christian), PENALTY COLO holding (Kaiser, Josh) 10 yards to the COLO48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+15
95.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 15 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+2
96.2%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
96.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
97.7%
[NHSG], Carr, Stephen rush for 1 yard to the USC37, out-of-bounds (Landman, Nate), PENALTY USC holding (Edoga, Chuma) 10 yards to the USC26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
97.6%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+3
97.6%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+4
97.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 47 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 4 yds to the Colo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:573% → 2%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
97.3%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+4
97.5%
Steven Montez run for 4 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-6
97.8%
Steven Montez sacked by Jordan Iosefa for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Davis Price punt for 46 yds, downed at the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
98.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
98.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Devon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
98.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+32
98.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 32 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26TD
23 plays · 65 yds · 6:532% → 6%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.1%
USC Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+8
98.1%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.1%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 8
50
-10
98.1%
[NHSG], Montez, Steven pass complete to Brown, Tony for 15 yards to the USC35 (Langley, Isaiah), PENALTY COLO holding (Sherman, William) 10 yards to the COLO40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 18
OWN 40
0
98.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+18
98.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 18 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.1%
Steven Montez run for 5 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-9
98.2%
K.D. Nixon run for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 14
OPP 46
+15
98.8%
Steven Montez run for 15 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
98.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 8 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 2
OPP 23
0
98.4%
Steven Montez run for no gain to the USC 23Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+3
98.5%
Kyle Evans run for 3 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
98.4%
Kyle Evans run for 8 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-10
98.4%
[NHSG], Evans, Kyle rush for 2 yards to the USC10 (Jones, Levi), PENALTY COLO holding (Tonz, Brett) 10 yards to the USC22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
98.5%
Kyle Evans run for no gain to the USC 22Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
98.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+14
98.7%
[NHSG], Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Ento, Kabion (Marshall, Iman), PENALTY USC pass interference (Marshall, Iman) 14 yards to the USC8, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
98.4%
[NHSG], Evans, Kyle rush for loss of 1 yard to the USC9 (Tufele, Jay), PENALTY USC offside (Dorton, Malik) 4 yards to the USC4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.4%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.2%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 1:4198% → 100%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
97.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
97.9%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.9%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
98.2%
[NHSG], Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Pittman, Michael, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Wigley, Dante) 15 yards to the COLO20, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
98.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
98.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
99.5%
Michael Brown 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 28TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:422% → 4%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.9%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
97.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 5 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+29
97.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 14 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete, broken up by Kana'i MaugaSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
97.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony Brown, broken up by Ajene HarrisSimilar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
97.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jaylon JacksonSimilar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+15
97.7%
[NHSG], Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Ento, Kabion, PENALTY USC pass interference (Marshall, Iman) 15 yards to the USC24, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
97.2%
[NHSG], Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Nixon, K.D., PENALTY USC offside (Gustin, Porter) 5 yards to the USC19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
97.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Kabion EntoSimilar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
97.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jaylon Jackson, broken up by Marvell Tell IIISimilar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+19
95.7%
Steven Montez run for 19 yds for a TD (Steven Montez intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-5
95.6%
[NHSG], Montez, Steven pass complete to Jackson, Jaylon for 10 yards to the USC37 (Tell, Marvell;Harris, Ajene), PENALTY COLO illegal motion (Ento, Kabion) 5 yards to the COLO48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
96.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
96.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony Brown, broken up by Levi JonesSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
96.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. Nixon, broken up by Greg JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 30Uncategorized
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.5%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+7
98.5%
Markese Stepp run for 7 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:16
Steven Montez pass intercepted for a TD Ajene Harris return for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q2 10:11
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 27 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q2 3:33
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 65 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com