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CAL

California 17 at Arizona 24

ARIZ
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+2ARIZ 51.6%Josh Pollack 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 1:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:49 · Josh Pollack 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense+3.2Pregame prior−5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Garbage-time factor+1.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:02: Brandon McIlwain run for 25 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +5.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:41: Brandon McIlwain run for 23 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +12.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. INT · Q3 3:19: Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted for a TD Colin Schooler return for 39 yds for a TD Colin Schooler fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Hawkins, recovered by Ariz Azizi Hearn , return for 34 yds — ARIZ win probability +15.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:13: Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted for a TD Scottie Young Jr. return for 24 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +18.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:16: Greg Thomas 35 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +5.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ARIZ 4th & 1 at CAL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42CAL 4th & 2 at ARIZ 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:49ARIZ 4th & 13 at CAL 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:02ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:17CAL 4th & 6 at ARIZ 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:10ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 15, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:11CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:15ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:46CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:52ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 17, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:22CAL 4th & 1 at ARIZ 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−3.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−16.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:05ARIZ 4th & 4 at CAL 22, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%−1.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−18.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:19ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 47, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.4 ptsPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−6.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:16CAL 4th & 8 at ARIZ 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:42ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:02CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:41CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:13ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1843% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.7%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
42.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 15 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
42.7%
Khalil Tate run for 10 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
42.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 6 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-5
42.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
42.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
42.7%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+3
42.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
42.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ariz J.J. TaylorSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+13
42.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 13 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+31
46.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 31 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
46.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-4
46.1%
Brandon McIlwain run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 16Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+7
46.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Ian Bunting for 7 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
46.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 15 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
45.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Ian BuntingSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
45.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+14
46.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 14 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
45.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 1 yd to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
45.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jake Ashton for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
45.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+1
45.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 1 yd to the Ariz 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1950% → 52%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.8%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+25
49.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 25 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
50.4%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
50.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 4 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+10
50.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 10 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
50.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
50.4%
Khalil Tate sacked by Malik Psalms for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+7
49.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+46
51.6%
Josh Pollack 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4748% → 54%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.2%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
52.0%
Brandon McIlwain run for 5 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
52.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Ian Bunting for 12 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
51.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
52.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 11 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
52.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
51.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 4 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
46.3%
Brandon McIlwain run for 25 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.4%
Jamarye Joiner run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
48.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-6
48.2%
Jamarye Joiner run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+57
47.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 57 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
49.4%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+15
49.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 15 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
49.0%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
49.0%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
48.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
47.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 3 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
47.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-5
48.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 17
OWN 46
0
49.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+11
49.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Ian Bunting for 11 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
48.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
51.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the Ariz 3Similar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+5
51.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+4
51.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+3
50.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 1
OWN 15
-2
49.8%
Dylan Klumph punt for 43 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 13 CALIFORNIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Cal 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+12
53.1%
Brandon McIlwain run for 12 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+3
53.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds , Shun Brown returns for 3 yds to the Ariz 27 Shun Brown fumbled, forced by Biaggio Ali Walsh, recovered by Ariz Lee Anderson III , return for 3 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
53.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+16
52.9%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
54.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
54.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Gary BrightwellSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
52.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Gary BrightwellSimilar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
51.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1347% → 61%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
51.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 5 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
51.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+29
50.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 14 yds to the ARIZONA 47 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
48.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 8 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+1
48.7%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+23
38.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 23 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0044% → 47%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
44.3%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
43.8%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+14
42.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 14 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
46.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
44.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 9 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
47.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to J.J. TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Kanawai Noa, broken up by Demetrius Flannigan-FowlesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
41.4%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+11
42.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+16
42.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 55 yds , Shun Brown returns for 16 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0043% → 46%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
43.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 12 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
45.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 3 yds Shun Brown fumbled, forced by Jordan Kunaszyk, recovered by ArizSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+10
45.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 10 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
46.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
46.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
46.3%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Camryn Bynum return for no gain to the Cal 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:0659% → 58%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
41.2%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-10
39.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 18Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+30
41.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 30 yds Kanawai Noa fumbled, forced by Jarrius Wallace, recovered by Cal Kanawai Noa for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
38.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+2
40.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+6
40.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 6 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+3
41.3%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
42.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds, downed at the Ariz 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
43.1%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+3
43.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 17
0
42.3%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Ariz 17Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
41.8%
Dylan Klumph punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16INT TD
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4063% → 49%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
37.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Maurice Ways, broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
37.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 9 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
36.7%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
36.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 10 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
35.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+34
51.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted for a TD Colin Schooler return for 39 yds for a TD Colin Schooler fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Hawkins, recovered by Ariz Azizi Hearn , return for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17DOWNS
18 plays · 72 yds · 5:5739% → 36%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.7%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
58.4%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
58.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+12
56.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 12 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
56.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 3 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+13
56.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 13 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
54.5%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the Ariz 21 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 12
OPP 31
+8
54.6%
Brandon McIlwain run for 8 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+3
56.1%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-5
57.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+13
57.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 13 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
56.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete, broken up by Colin SchoolerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
56.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for no gain to the Ariz 12Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+9
63.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 9 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
64.5%
Brandon McIlwain run for no gain to the Ariz 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:0069% → 73%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
68.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 4Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+4
68.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 8
-4
67.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Ariz 4Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+17
67.2%
Khalil Tate run for 17 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
69.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 9 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+8
71.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 8 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
71.3%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+4
72.5%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
72.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Cal 45 J.J. Taylor fumbled, forced by Luc Bequette, recovered by Cal Ashtyn DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19INT
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
66.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+38
69.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted Scottie Young Jr. return for 38 yds to the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0778% → 75%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
78.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 1 yd to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+5
78.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 5 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
76.5%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun Brown, broken up by Ashtyn DavisSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
74.6%
Josh Pollack 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:0030% → 37%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
69.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 5
OWN 27
+6
67.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 6 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
68.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 19 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
63.1%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
62.6%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
62.6%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by JB Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 38 Brandon McIlwain fumbled, recovered by Ariz Dereck Boles , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
76.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
77.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 5 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
77.4%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
76.4%
Jake Glatting punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+24
95.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted for a TD Scottie Young Jr. return for 24 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 2:575% → 8%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.3%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
95.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 8 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
94.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 2 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
94.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+11
95.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 11 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+41
94.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 41 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-11
93.0%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by Jalen Harris and Lee Anderson III for a loss of 11 yards to the Ariz 31Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 21
OPP 31
+6
93.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Ian Bunting for 6 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+7
94.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 7 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
89.0%
Greg Thomas 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+5
91.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
96.9%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:13
Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted for a TD Scottie Young Jr. return for 24 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)
+18.9
INT · Q3 3:19
Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted for a TD Colin Schooler return for 39 yds for a TD Colin Schooler fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Hawkins, recovered by Ariz Azizi Hearn , return for 34 yds
+15.5
TD · Q2 0:41
Brandon McIlwain run for 23 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com