Try the model
STAN

Stanford 17 at Notre Dame 38

ND
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Notre Dame Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:02 · Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the Stanf 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior+13.3Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:36: K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 4 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +8.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:39: Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 10 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +9.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:16: Jet Toner 46 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +5.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:16: Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +7.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:02: Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 35 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +6.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 8STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:23STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02ND 4th & 1 at STAN 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:33STAN 4th & 2 at ND 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:42ND 4th & 2 at STAN 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:31ND 4th & 9 at ND 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:52STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:11ND 4th & 5 at ND 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:03STAN 4th & 6 at ND 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:06ND 4th & 9 at ND 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:12STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:07ND 4th & 2 at STAN 20, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%−1.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−7.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:35STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:07ND 4th & 3 at ND 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:16STAN 4th & 10 at ND 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−6.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:51ND 4th & 16 at STAN 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:21STAN 4th & 23 at STAN 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−4.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:57STAN 4th & 20 at STAN 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:13ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:39STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:09ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:36STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:39ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:16ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:02ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2736% → 36%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.0%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 25Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.9%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 25Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
64.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 47 yds , Chris Finke returns for 5 yds to the NDame 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:0864% → 64%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
63.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 11 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
64.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
64.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
64.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
64.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the Stanf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1837% → 37%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
63.5%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
63.3%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
63.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
63.5%
Jake Bailey punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:1164% → 67%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
63.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+8
63.7%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
63.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
63.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 19 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
64.1%
Ian Book run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 45Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+45
66.5%
Dexter Williams run for 45 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2934% → 38%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.0%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
66.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 9 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
66.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
65.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Bryce Love for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
50
+11
65.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 11 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
62.0%
Bryce Love run for 39 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:1663% → 69%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
63.1%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+18
63.2%
Dexter Williams run for 18 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
64.0%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+6
64.3%
Dexter Williams run for 6 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
64.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 7 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
64.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+1
64.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+19
63.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 19 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
64.8%
Ian Book run for no gain to the Stanf 14Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
64.9%
Avery Davis run for 8 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
68.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Nic Weishar for 6 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 4:2833% → 40%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
67.5%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+7
67.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 7 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
67.5%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-5
66.8%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (A.T. Hall) to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+45
67.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 45 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
65.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 9 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+14
66.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Troy Pride Jr.) to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.6%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
66.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Bryce Love for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 4Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 4 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5864% → 63%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.0%
Dexter Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
64.9%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
64.6%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
64.8%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-9
65.0%
Ian Book sacked by Gabe Reid for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+8
63.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 8 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
62.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 53 yds, downed at the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2839% → 38%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
61.2%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
61.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+2
61.9%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+3
62.5%
Jake Bailey punt for 64 yds , Chris Finke returns for 3 yds to the NDame 25 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (TaRiq Bracy) to the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2464% → 64%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
63.6%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+11
63.6%
Dexter Williams run for 11 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
64.1%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+10
64.3%
Ian Book run for 10 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
65.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 5 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
65.9%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
65.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
64.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:5940% → 41%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
60.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 31 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
56.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
56.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
56.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
58.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:1663% → 76%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
62.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 12 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
63.1%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+10
64.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 10 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
65.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 9 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+33
65.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 33 yds to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
67.0%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
76.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 10 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · -9 yds · 0:2926% → 25%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 20Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
74.4%
K.J. Costello sacked by Jerry Tillery for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+3
74.2%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
74.6%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Devery Hamilton) to the Stanf 17Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-1
74.7%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4073% → 71%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.7%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
72.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Dexter WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
71.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+9
70.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 50 yds , Trenton Irwin returns for 9 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4429% → 26%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
71.3%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-5
71.3%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+4
73.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 4 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
73.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:5573% → 80%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
73.4%
Dexter Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+8
74.3%
Dexter Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
74.9%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
74.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+16
73.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 16 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
76.3%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+13
76.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 13 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
76.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+3
77.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+8
77.3%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
79.5%
Justin Yoon 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1921% → 19%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
80.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
81.2%
Jake Bailey punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1880% → 80%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.3%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
80.7%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
80.4%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
79.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 50 yds , Michael Wilson returns for 1 yd to the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:5120% → 25%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
79.9%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Scooter Harrington) to the Stanf 14Similar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+9
80.1%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+15
80.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Drue Tranquill) to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
79.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+29
80.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 29 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
76.9%
K.J. Costello sacked by Khalid Kareem for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 16
OPP 34
0
78.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+6
80.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 6 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
75.0%
Jet Toner 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20MISSED FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:2180% → 82%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+20
78.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 20 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
84.0%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
84.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+17
83.6%
Dexter Williams run for 17 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
84.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-1
84.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 27
-5
84.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Formation (Sam Mustipher) to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 16
OPP 32
-8
84.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alize Mack) to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 24
OPP 40
+8
83.9%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+50
82.2%
Justin Yoon 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:2121% → 17%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
79.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (A.T. Hall) to the Stanf 22Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+2
80.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 18
OWN 24
-3
80.7%
K.J. Costello sacked by Jerry Tillery for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 21Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 21
OWN 21
-2
82.5%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 19Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 23
OWN 19
0
83.3%
Jake Bailey punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:0087% → 96%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
86.1%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+10
85.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 10 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
87.8%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+14
87.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 14 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
88.1%
Dexter Williams run for 6 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+7
87.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
88.4%
Dexter Williams run for 9 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
95.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
92.8%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Te'von Coney return for 7 yds to the Stanf 20 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alohi Gilman) to the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 35 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
98.9%
K.J. Costello sacked by Jerry Tillery for a loss of 10 yards to the Stanf 15. K.J. Costello fumbled, recovered by Stanf Walker Little at the Stanf 15Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-8
99.1%
K.J. Costello sacked by Jerry Tillery for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 7Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 28
OWN 7
+8
99.3%
Trevor Speights run for 8 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
99.3%
Jake Bailey punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26Uncategorized
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:3599% → 100%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.2%
Avery Davis run for 5 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-2
99.3%
Avery Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 40 Avery Davis fumbled, forced by Paulson Adebo, recovered by StanfSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
99.3%
Jahmir Smith run for 16 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
99.4%
Avery Davis run for 3 yds to the Stanf 41 Avery Davis fumbled, forced by Alijah Holder, recovered by NDame Alize MackSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+14
99.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Jahmir Smith for 14 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.7%
Jahmir Smith run for 3 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
99.7%
Jahmir Smith run for 2 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+6
99.7%
Jahmir Smith run for 6 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:39
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 10 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 10:36
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 4 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)
-8
TD · Q4 8:16
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com