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ORE

Oregon 42 at California 24

CAL
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:10 · Patrick Laird run for 12 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense−44.8Score differential−23.8Garbage-time factor−18.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.7Pregame prior−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:44: Travis Dye run for 45 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +8.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:47: Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 36 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +8.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:29: Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +10.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:51: Patrick Laird run for 10 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +15.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:31: Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 1 yd for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +9.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 7:31CAL 4th & 5 at ORE 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:48ORE 4th & 11 at CAL 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:58CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:11CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:53ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:18ORE 4th & 4 at CAL 23, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:10CAL 4th & 1 at ORE 1, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    -2.7%−11.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:35ORE 4th & 7 at CAL 48, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:28ORE 4th & 8 at CAL 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:10CAL 4th & 1 at ORE 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:13ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:32CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:44ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:47ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:29ORE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:51CAL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:31CAL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:02ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 7:0944% → 47%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
44.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
44.6%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
44.6%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 29 Chase Garbers fumbled, recovered by Cal Chase GarbersSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+19
44.8%
Chase Garbers run for 19 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
45.3%
Patrick Laird pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 14 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
45.7%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
45.9%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
45.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 6 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
46.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 9 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
46.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
46.6%
Malik McMorris run for 2 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
47.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
47.1%
Brandon McIlwain run for 5 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
46.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Ian BuntingSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
47.3%
Greg Thomas 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:4753% → 56%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
47.5%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+9
47.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 9 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
47.3%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
47.4%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+12
47.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 12 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
47.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 9 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+4
46.8%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
43.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Kano Dillon for 30 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
44.9%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Ugochukwu Amadi return for no gain to the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:0655% → 55%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Kano DillonSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
44.9%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+8
44.8%
Justin Herbert run for 8 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
44.3%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
44.1%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+7
44.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 7 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
43.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for no gain to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
43.9%
Justin Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
44.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
45.5%
Tom Snee punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 5:0145% → 53%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
45.0%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
44.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+15
44.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Haki Woods Jr.) to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
45.3%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-5
45.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+8
44.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 8 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+24
44.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 24 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
47.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 7 yds to the Oregn 37 Brandon McIlwain fumbled, recovered by Cal Brandon McIlwainSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+6
47.5%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
48.3%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
48.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+28
52.8%
Brandon McIlwain run for 28 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1649% → 60%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.9%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
50.8%
Justin Herbert run for 9 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
50.1%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
50.3%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+5
51.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jordan Kunaszyk) to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
49.8%
Justin Herbert run for 2 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
49.7%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
49.2%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+45
40.2%
Travis Dye run for 45 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2244% → 44%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
43.9%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
44.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+5
43.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 5 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+4
44.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 45 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for 4 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:0357% → 70%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+33
42.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 33 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
40.0%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+7
38.5%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
30.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 36 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:2231% → 30%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
31.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
30.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-4
29.9%
Chase Garbers sacked by Drayton Carlberg for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
30.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 73 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:5768% → 70%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+33
32.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 33 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
30.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Kano DillonSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
30.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
29.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+35
30.3%
Tom Snee punt for 39 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 35 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:2833% → 26%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
50
+11
32.8%
Brandon McIlwain run for 11 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
33.0%
Brandon McIlwain run for 11 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+61
25.8%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by Drayton Carlberg for a loss of 11 yards Brandon McIlwain fumbled, forced by Drayton Carlberg, recovered by Oregn La'Mar Winston Jr. , return for 0 yards , return for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
21.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 5 yds to the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1983% → 95%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+74
17.5%
CJ Verdell run for 74 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:165% → 19%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
4.5%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
4.3%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
4.0%
Chase Garbers run for 10 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
3.9%
Patrick Laird run for 19 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+25
4.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 25 yds to the Oregn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
19.2%
Patrick Laird run for 10 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3285% → 86%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
14.6%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
14.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 11 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
14.2%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
13.6%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41 Travis Dye fumbled, forced by Jordan Kunaszyk, recovered by Cal Rusty BeckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:2517% → 17%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
17.4%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
17.7%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
17.1%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
16.8%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted, touchback. Jevon Holland return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:4288% → 93%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
12.2%
CJ Verdell run for 8 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
12.0%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
11.8%
Verdell, CJ rush for 2 yards to the OREGON35, PENALTY OREGON holding (Bay, Ryan) 10 yards to the OREGON23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+6
11.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 6 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+19
10.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 19 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
9.4%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
9.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Brenden SchoolerSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+15
9.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Drayden) to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
8.5%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+5
7.3%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
6.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
7.4%
Adam Stack 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:5012% → 9%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
12.4%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+4
12.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
11.5%
Brandon McIlwain run for 27 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
12.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 9 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
13.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
12.5%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
13.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 17 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
11.8%
McIlwain, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGON pass interference 7 yards to the OREGON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
12.2%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 5Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
11.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
10.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 4 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
9.0%
Brandon McIlwain run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
13 plays · 49 yds · 6:1595% → 97%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
5.0%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 4Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+3
4.9%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+7
4.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 7 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
4.6%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+16
4.5%
Travis Dye run for 16 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
3.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
3.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
3.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 5 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
3.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+3
3.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+8
3.0%
Justin Herbert run for 8 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 2
OPP 43
-5
3.0%
OREGON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
2.9%
Blake Maimone punt for 45 yds, downed at the Cal 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
8 plays · 97 yds · 2:494% → 13%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
4.0%
Brandon McIlwain run for 7 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+15
4.0%
McIlwain, Brandon pass incomplete to Noa, Kanawai, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Amadi, Ugochukwu) 15 yards to the CALIFORNIA25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
3.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Ian Bunting for 45 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
4.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Maurice Ways for 13 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
4.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Maurice WaysSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
3.3%
Brandon McIlwain run for 9 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+7
3.0%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 1 yd for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:0293% → 95%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
6.9%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+1
6.3%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
6.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 7 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 3
OPP 38
-5
6.0%
OREGON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
5.4%
Blake Maimone punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22INT TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:084% → 1%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
3.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 7 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+32
0.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted for a TD Ugochukwu Amadi return for 32 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:591% → 1%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
1.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Patrick Laird for 1 yd to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+6
0.8%
Brandon McIlwain run for 6 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
0.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+12
0.7%
Patrick Laird run for 12 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
0.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 3 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
0.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass intercepted Jevon Holland return for 6 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24Uncategorized
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:51
Patrick Laird run for 10 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 13:29
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q4 4:31
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 1 yd for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com