2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:57 · Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Demari Simpkins
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:07: Zack Moss run for 6 yds for a TD — UTAH win probability +5.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:47: Gardner Minshew run for 10 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:03: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 65 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:01: Tyler Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +9.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:14: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Easop Winston for 89 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +47.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 5:07UTAH 4th & 1 at WSU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.2%71% to convertField goal50.6%−0.654% to makePunt50.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 11:47UTAH 4th & 11 at UTAH 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snapGo for it48.0%−1.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.2%average punt
- Q2 4:05WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 43, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 53.3% before the snapGo for it54.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.7%−1.4average punt
- Q2 3:55UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 39, tiedClose callPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it49.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:15WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 41, tiedClose callPunted · 52.2% before the snapGo for it51.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:39UTAH 4th & 12 at WSU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snapGo for it46.1%−2.222% to convertField goalTheir call48.3%70% to makePunt40.1%−8.2average punt
- Q3 10:39WSU 4th & 3 at UTAH 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.6%52% to convertField goal45.5%−3.132% to makePunt46.4%−2.2average punt
- Q3 7:47WSU 4th & 10 at UTAH 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snapGo for it44.9%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call45.2%45% to makePunt43.9%−1.3average punt
- Q3 7:47UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 42, up 3Close callPunted · 56.2% before the snapGo for it57.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 6:11WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 41, down 3Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snapGo for it46.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 15:00UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snapGo for it57.9%−0.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.8%average punt
- Q4 13:12WSU 4th & 14 at WSU 6, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snapGo for it36.3%−5.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.4%average punt
- Q4 11:36UTAH 4th & 4 at WSU 45, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it63.5%48% to convertField goal58.2%−5.325% to makePuntTheir call61.5%−2.0average punt
- Q4 10:07WSU 4th & 19 at WSU 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snapGo for it30.1%−5.810% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%average punt
- Q4 6:36UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 39, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snapGo for it61.3%−3.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.6%average punt
- Q4 4:14UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 39, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.3%−5.5average punt
- Q4 0:57UTAH 4th & 20 at UTAH 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.2%10% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.5%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 8:22UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.7%97% to makeGo for two52.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:07WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.7%97% to makeGo for two49.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:07UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.3%97% to makeGo for two54.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:47WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.6%97% to makeGo for two49.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:03WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.4%97% to makeGo for two58.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:01UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.7%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:14WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.4%97% to makeGo for two71.7%−1.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1INT7 plays · 58 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 3 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+33
44.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 33 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
44.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 8 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+14
44.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 14 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
44.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin, broken up by Corrion BallardSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+23
44.8%
Gardner Minshew pass intercepted Corrion Ballard return for 23 yds to the Utah 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2TD11 plays · 75 yds · 6:3855% → 57%
WSUDrive 3TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1544% → 49%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 11 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
44.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Kyle Sweet, broken up by Corrion BallardSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-15
44.0%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+11
44.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 11 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+10
44.6%
Minshew,Gardner pass incomplete to Bell, Renard, PENALTY UTAH holding (Lewis, Tareke) 10 yards to the UTAH31, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
45.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 1 yd to the Utah 30Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+26
44.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 26 yds to the Utah 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 4 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4TD11 plays · 65 yds · 4:0053% → 59%
Q1 5:07
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+14
46.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 14 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2042% → 52%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Easop Winston for 9 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
43.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
50
+10
42.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 10 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
43.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Davontavean Martin, broken up by Javelin K. GuidrySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+12
43.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Renard Bell for 12 yds to the Utah 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
44.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for no gain to the Utah 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+18
44.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Travell Harris for 18 yds to the Utah 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
WSUDrive 7TD4 plays · 65 yds · 0:5750% → 58%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
50.1%
Minshew,Gardner pass complete to Martin, Tay for 19 yards to the UTAH46 (Hansen, Chase), PENALTY WSU holding (Lucas, Abraham) 10 yards to the WSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+10
49.7%
Minshew,Gardner pass incomplete to Patmon, Dezmon, QB hurry by Anae, Bradlee, PENALTY UTAH holding (Blackmon, J.) 10 yards to the WSU35, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+65
57.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 65 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0243% → 56%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jake Jackson for 3 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
57.7%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Simpkins,Demari, PENALTY WSU holding (Molton, Darrien) 9 yards to the UTAH38, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+38
54.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 38 yds to the WshSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 1:5051% → 51%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
50.7%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, false start (Andre Dillard) to the WshSt 13Similar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+13
50.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Renard Bell for 13 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+8
50.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Easop Winston for 8 yds to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Max Borghi, broken up by Hauati PututauSimilar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+9
49.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Easop Winston for 9 yds to the WshSt 43Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
51.2%
Oscar Draguicevich punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Utah 13 , Britain Covey returns for no gain to the Utah 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
WSUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.9%
Minshew,Gardner pass incomplete to Williams, James, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Barton, Cody) 1 yards to the WSU26, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
50.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 7 yds to the WshSt 33Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
50.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 4 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
51.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 4 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13FG14 plays · 52 yds · 4:2152% → 55%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
46.4%
Moss, Zack rush for 1 yard to the UTAH34 (Thompson, Jalen), PENALTY UTAH holding (Paulo, Darrin) 10 yards to the UTAH23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
48.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 11 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
47.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 12 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
45.5%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Enis, Solomon, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Strong, Marcus) 15 yards to the WSU37, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+9
43.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 9 yds to the WshSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
47.0%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Britain Covey, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14MISSED FG12 plays · 40 yds · 2:5246% → 46%
Q3 10:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+19
46.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 19 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
49.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 7 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+6
48.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 6 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
51.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Davontavean Martin, broken up by Mika TafuaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
WSUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
46.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 11 yds to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
46.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 33Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+8
44.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 8 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
45.9%
Oscar Draguicevich punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 2:2158% → 58%
Q3 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
42.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 2 yds to the Utah 21Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+7
43.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 7 yds to the Utah 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+15
40.7%
Huntley, Tyler pass complete to Kuithe, Brant for loss of 2 yards to the UTAH30 (Tago, Logan;Dale, Hunter), PENALTY WSU roughing passer (Comfort, Taylor) 15 yards to the UTAH47, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
42.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kyle Sweet at the WshSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
UTAHDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
WSUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
40.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 16 yds to the WshSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-9
40.7%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Bradlee Anae and Cody Barton for a loss of 9 yards to the WshSt 17Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 19
OWN 17
+3
37.5%
Oscar Draguicevich punt for 48 yds , Britain Covey returns for 3 yds to the Utah 20 UTAH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Utah 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 1:5067% → 65%
WSUDrive 22TD2 plays · 93 yds · 0:5338% → 85%
UTAHDrive 23DOWNS16 plays · 16 yds · 3:1719% → 13%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
80.4%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Demari Simpkins, broken up by Darrien MoltonSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
81.1%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Mariner, Siaosi, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Harper Jr, Sean) 15 yards to the WSU43, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+6
77.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 6 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 43
-10
85.0%
Huntley, Tyler pass complete to Covey, Britain for 36 yards to the WSU7 (Singleton,Deion), PENALTY UTAH holding (Umana, Orlando) 10 yards to the UTAH47, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 24END OF GAME4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0295% → 95%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:14
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Easop Winston for 89 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
+47.6
TD · Q2 6:01
Tyler Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Gay KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 9:03
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 65 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
+7.8