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ORST

Oregon State 24 at Arizona State 52

ASU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:30 · TEAM punt, downed at the ArzSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Pregame prior+39.9Home team on offense+0.3Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:22: Jermar Jefferson run for 11 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +4.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:02: Jermar Jefferson run for 27 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +5.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:14: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +4.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:13: N'Keal Harry run for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:38: Conor Blount pass complete to Noah Togiai for 4 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +5.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 8:30ASU 4th & 4 at ORST 11, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:28ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:36ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53ORST 4th & 2 at ASU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:17ORST 4th & 2 at ASU 18, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:38ORST 4th & 2 at ASU 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:32ASU 4th & 1 at ORST 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−2.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:16ORST 4th & 6 at ASU 6, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ASU 4th & 1 at ORST 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−1.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:48ORST 4th & 7 at ASU 32, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:28ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:49ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:22ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:02ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:14ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:13ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:38ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:48ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:28ASU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 6:3093% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for no gain to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
92.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 13 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
92.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
92.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Kaleb HayesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
92.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
92.8%
Isaiah Floyd run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
92.8%
[NHSG], PENALTY OSU offside (Aydon, Elu) 5 yards to the OSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+5
92.8%
Isaiah Floyd run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
92.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
92.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
92.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 5 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
92.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-2
92.8%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
91.5%
Brandon Ruiz 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
91.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 3 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
91.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
91.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
91.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 5 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-8
91.3%
Conor Blount sacked by Malik Lawal for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 32 Conor Blount fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
91.6%
TEAM punt, downed at the ArzSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 0:5691% → 92%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
90.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+8
90.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
91.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 44 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
91.2%
Conor Blount sacked by Jalen Bates and Merlin Robertson for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 17 Conor Blount fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Jermar Jefferson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
91.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
91.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
91.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:4391% → 94%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
91.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Eno BenjaminSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+9
91.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
91.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
91.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+8
91.5%
Isaiah Floyd run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
91.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
91.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+20
91.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 8 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:367% → 9%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.5%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
93.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
93.2%
Conor Blount sacked by Darien Butler for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+21
93.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 21 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
93.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
93.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+3
93.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+4
93.2%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 4 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
92.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
92.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
93.1%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
91.5%
Jordan Choukair 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2893% → 96%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
92.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 21 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
92.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
92.9%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+47
96.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 47 yds for a TD Brandon Ruiz kickoff for 3 yds for a touchback Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 44 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST down (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:274% → 9%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
95.6%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 44 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
95.0%
Trevon Bradford run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+15
95.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
94.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
90.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 11 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
92.2%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
91.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
91.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 47 yds , Timmy Hernandez returns for no gain to the OrgSt 32 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 3:328% → 15%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
91.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 6 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+2
91.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+4
91.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
91.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 19 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
91.5%
Kase Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+10
91.6%
Conor Blount pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 10 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+7
91.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
91.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+13
91.2%
Conor Blount run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
90.7%
Conor Blount pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
84.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 27 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 0:4888% → 94%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
87.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 22 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
88.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 5 yds to the ARIZONAST 48 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, roughing passer (Kee Whetzel) to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
89.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
89.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+14
89.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 14 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
93.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-8
92.4%
Conor Blount sacked by Malik Lawal for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
92.6%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Jermar JeffersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
92.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 33 yds, downed at the ArzSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:1093% → 98%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
93.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+15
93.2%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harry, N'Keal, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Moore, Jalen) 15 yards to the OSU34, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+21
93.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 21 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
93.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
97.7%
N'Keal Harry run for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:353% → 9%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.1%
Conor Blount run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by Aashari CrosswellSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
97.1%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 11 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
96.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+45
96.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 45 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
96.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
96.5%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 5 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-1
96.7%
Kase Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
91.4%
Conor Blount pass complete to Noah Togiai for 4 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
93.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
93.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+7
93.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
93.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+10
94.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
94.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
94.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
93.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
93.5%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:378% → 6%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+31
92.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 31 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
91.2%
Timmy Hernandez run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
91.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+5
91.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
91.2%
Conor Blount pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 6 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+5
91.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
91.2%
Kase Rogers run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
91.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.7%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Demonte KingSimilar
Q3 0:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
94.4%
[SG], PENALTY OSU false start (Quitoriano, T.) 5 yards to the ASU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.5%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Chase LucasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 5:2296% → 99%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
95.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 14 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
96.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
96.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 22 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
96.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 23 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
96.4%
Isaiah Floyd run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-1
96.4%
Isaiah Floyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+7
96.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 7 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+5
95.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
96.4%
N'Keal Harry run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 10 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
99.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
99.1%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Kolby Taylor, broken up by Aashari CrosswellSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+15
99.1%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 15 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
99.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.0%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 2 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-1
98.9%
Kase Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+2
99.0%
Kase Rogers run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
99.1%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Kolby Taylor, broken up by D.J. DavidsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 3:1799% → 100%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
99.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+19
99.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.4%
[NHSG], PENALTY ASU delay of game 5 yards to the OSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+4
99.4%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+41
100.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 41 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21FUMBLE
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Kase Rogers run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
100.0%
Kase Rogers run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
100.0%
Kase Rogers run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
100.0%
Kase Rogers run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
100.0%
Kase Rogers run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Aidan Willard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
100.0%
Kase Rogers run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-11
100.0%
Aidan Willard sacked by Kyle Soelle for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 33 Aidan Willard fumbled, forced by Demonte King, recovered by ArzSt Merlin Robertson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:02
Jermar Jefferson run for 27 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q3 7:38
Conor Blount pass complete to Noah Togiai for 4 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-5.3
TD · Q3 11:13
N'Keal Harry run for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com