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USC

USC 24 at Arizona 20

ARIZ
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.8ARIZ 37.1%Michael Brown 42 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q2 11:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:12 · Michael Brown 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense−5.8Score differential−2.8Garbage-time factor−1.5Pregame prior−5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:08: Aca'Cedric Ware run for 26 yds for a TD, (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +10.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:44: Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 33 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +10.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:34: Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 32 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +16.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:40: Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik PAT MISSED) — ARIZ win probability +22.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47 — USC win probability +12.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 11USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:24USC 4th & 7 at USC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:32ARIZ 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:58ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42USC 4th & 13 at USC 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:28ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:45USC 4th & 1 at USC 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:12USC 4th & 2 at ARIZ 24, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%−0.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:20ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:08USC 4th & 2 at ARIZ 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.2%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:04ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:42ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:57USC 4th & 15 at USC 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:37ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:39USC 4th & 1 at USC 36, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:09ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 29, down 17
    Close callPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:29USC 4th & 2 at USC 35, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:03ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 42, down 17
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:16ARIZ 4th & 17 at USC 46, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−0.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    11.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:03USC 4th & 2 at ARIZ 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−1.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−2.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:40ARIZ 4th & 1 at USC 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−6.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:52USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:08USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:36USC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:44ARIZ Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:34ARIZ Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:40ARIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    14.4%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2858% → 58%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
41.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
41.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
41.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
42.0%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
42.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 30 yds, downed at the Ariz 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4842% → 43%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
42.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+6
42.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 6 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+4
42.5%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
42.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
42.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 1 yd to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+5
42.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 3
50
0
43.1%
Dylan Klumph punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:4057% → 60%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
42.9%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the USC 10Similar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
42.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 5Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+2
42.9%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 13
OWN 7
0
43.2%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+20
43.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 20 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
43.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
43.2%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
43.1%
JT Daniels run for 2 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
43.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+37
43.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Josh Falo for 37 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
42.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
42.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+19
43.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 19 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3741% → 40%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
40.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 11 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
41.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Donovan Laie) to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+3
40.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+7
40.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 7 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
41.0%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Dayven ColemanSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+3
40.4%
Dylan Klumph punt for 21 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 3 yds to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0861% → 59%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
39.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
39.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-6
39.4%
JT Daniels sacked by PJ Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+4
40.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 42 yds , Shun Brown returns for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0740% → 39%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
40.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
40.2%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+15
39.6%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
40.9%
Tony Ellison run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+6
39.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 6 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
39.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to J.J. TaylorSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 11
OWN 41
-4
39.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 40 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3560% → 61%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
39.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Petite for 10 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.0%
Stephen Carr run for 10 yds to the USC 35 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.3%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
39.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Austin Jackson) to the USC 22Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
39.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
39.7%
JT Daniels run for 7 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+54
39.3%
Reid Budrovich punt for 44 yds, downed at the ARIZONA 22 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ariz 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:1340% → 40%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
39.5%
USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
39.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 17Similar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 15
OWN 17
-4
39.5%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Marvell Tell III return for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1262% → 63%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
37.6%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chuma Edoga) to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+4
37.9%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+3
37.9%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+11
37.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 11 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
37.1%
Michael Brown 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:4536% → 35%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 10 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.4%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
36.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
35.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Gary BrightwellSimilar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+1
35.0%
Dylan Klumph punt for 46 yds, Tyler Vaughns returns for 1 yd to the USC 20. ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:4063% → 78%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
36.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
36.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
35.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the USC 47Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+19
35.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 19 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
35.1%
Stephen Carr run for 7 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-15
32.9%
USC Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+8
33.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+8
33.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 8 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+26
22.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 26 yds for a TD, (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5626% → 24%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
25.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 1 yd to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
25.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
25.2%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
24.7%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
24.4%
Dylan Klumph punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:0879% → 83%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
20.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
20.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 20 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
19.1%
Stephen Carr run for 24 yds to the Ariz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
17.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ariz Colin SchoolerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 66 yds · 1:4823% → 25%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
22.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
22.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+16
22.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 16 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.3%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
22.6%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+7
22.2%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+38
25.2%
Lucas Havrisik 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Marvell Tell IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0321% → 20%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
21.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 11 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
21.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
21.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 40Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-2
20.4%
Khalil Tate sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
19.5%
Dylan Klumph punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:0682% → 92%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
18.4%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the USC 15Similar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
18.7%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-7 Yards) to the USC 8Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
18.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 14 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
18.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
17.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+69
8.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 69 yds for a TD, (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:389% → 19%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
8.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 17Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+32
8.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 32 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
8.1%
Khalil Tate run for 9 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
8.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
8.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
8.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+33
18.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 33 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:2585% → 85%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.0%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
14.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
13.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
14.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
14.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
14.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:1816% → 14%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.5%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
14.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 13 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
14.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+5
14.2%
Khalil Tate run for 5 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
14.1%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
14.0%
Dylan Klumph punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5188% → 90%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
11.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Josh Falo for 8 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
11.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 36Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
9.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+7
9.7%
Reid Budrovich punt for 49 yds , Shun Brown returns for 7 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2113% → 11%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
13.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-2
12.8%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 24Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+5
11.4%
Khalil Tate run for 5 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+43
11.3%
Dylan Klumph punt for 43 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3191% → 92%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
8.7%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-5
8.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+4
8.6%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+6
8.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 6 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+22
8.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 51 yds , Shun Brown returns for 22 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:029% → 8%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
8.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
9.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Devaughn CooperSimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
8.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 1 yd to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
7.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1893% → 96%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
7.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 8 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+1
6.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 28Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+4
6.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
5.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
5.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-1
4.4%
JT Daniels sacked by Kylan Wilborn for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 32 JT Daniels fumbled, forced by Kylan Wilborn, recovered by Ariz PJ Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
20.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 32 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:0286% → 87%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
14.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
13.1%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the USC 45Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
13.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Josh Falo for 9 yds Josh Falo fumbled, forced by Colin Schooler, recovered by Ariz Colin SchoolerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:4416% → 12%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
16.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
17.3%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the USC 47Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+8
16.4%
Khalil Tate run for 8 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
16.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 49Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+3
14.6%
Shun Brown run for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 17
OPP 46
0
14.3%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 17
OPP 46
0
12.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
11.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:0392% → 93%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
8.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
7.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
7.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 13
OPP 45
-5
7.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 18
50
+2
7.3%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 16
OPP 48
+14
8.0%
Stephen Carr run for 14 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-1
7.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:2012% → 27%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+48
11.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 33 yds to the ARIZONA 32 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
12.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+12
10.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
8.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.2%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.5%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.9%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the USC 1Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.9%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.8%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.1%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3093% → 95%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
7.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-2
5.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-1
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:40
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik PAT MISSED)
+22.1
TD · Q4 9:34
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 32 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
+16
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com