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ARIZ

Arizona 35 at Oregon State 14

ORST
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:53 · Luke Loecher punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense−47.7Pregame prior−0.7Score differential−27.3Garbage-time factor−16.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:56: Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +6.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:25: Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 21 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +6.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:39: Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +10.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:55: Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 8 — ARIZ win probability +7.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:23: Gary Brightwell run for 8 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +7.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:25ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:18ARIZ 4th & 14 at ORST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:18ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:17ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:31ARIZ 4th & 25 at ORST 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:07ORST 4th & 7 at ARIZ 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ARIZ 4th & 7 at ORST 27, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:23ORST 4th & 1 at ARIZ 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−1.0
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:26ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:53ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 4, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:37ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:56ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:25ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:39ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:23ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:54ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:26ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
34.3%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
34.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
34.3%
Conor Blount pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
34.3%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:1865% → 66%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
34.7%
Khalil Tate run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
34.6%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
34.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
34.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+40
34.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 40 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
34.5%
Trevon Bradford run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
34.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-5
34.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Sumner Houston) to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 14
OWN 0
+15
34.5%
Blount, Conor pass complete to Hodgins, Isaiah for 10 yards to the OSU44, out-of-bounds (Hough, T.), PENALTY OSU holding (Togiai, Noah) 10 yards to the OSU24, NO PLAY, PENALTY ARIZ personal foul 15 yards to the OSU39, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
34.6%
Conor Blount run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 35 Conor Blount fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Conor Blount , return for no gain to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
34.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+1
34.4%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
34.3%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 58 yds, downed at the Ariz 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
34.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+1
34.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 13Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+17
34.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 17 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
34.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
34.3%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Ariz 36 Gary Brightwell fumbled, recovered by Ariz Gary Brightwell , return for no gain to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-5
34.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Donovan Laie) to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
34.7%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
34.9%
Dylan Klumph punt for 54 yds, downed at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:1335% → 42%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
34.5%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+4
34.8%
Kase Rogers run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
34.7%
Conor Blount run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
34.7%
Kase Rogers run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+9
34.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
34.9%
Conor Blount run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
35.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
35.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 23 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
36.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+11
35.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Smalls for 11 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
35.6%
Kase Rogers run for 3 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
36.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
41.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:3261% → 60%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+43
39.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 43 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
37.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+5
37.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
37.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Gary BrightwellSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
37.5%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-4
38.2%
Khalil Tate sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 25 Khalil Tate fumbled, recovered by Ariz Khalil Tate , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+43
40.2%
Lucas Havrisik 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.8%
Champ Flemings run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
40.0%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Isaiah SmallsSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
39.6%
Luke Loecher punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 10 , Shun Brown returns for no gain to the Ariz 28 ARIZONA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Ariz 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 4:2660% → 68%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
40.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+9
40.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 9 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
40.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+9
40.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
39.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
50
+8
38.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 8 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+2
38.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
38.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
37.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+21
31.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 21 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
34.3%
Conor Blount run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
34.2%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by - FlanniganfowlesSimilar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
33.5%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+21
32.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 53 yds , Shun Brown returns for 21 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 29 yds · 3:4268% → 67%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
31.8%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
32.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 17 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
30.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
30.6%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+10
31.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 10 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
30.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
30.8%
Tate, K. pass incomplete to Ellison, T., PENALTY ARIZ ineligible downfield on pass (Creason, C.) 5 yards to the OSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+6
30.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-5
30.6%
Tate, K. pass complete to Ellison, T. for 21 yards to the OSU0, clock 04:03, PENALTY ARIZ ineligible downfield on pass (Cain, B.) 5 yards to the OSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+5
31.0%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-16
31.2%
Khalil Tate sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. and Kee Whetzel for a loss of 16 yards to the OrgSt 37 ARIZONA Penalty, intentional grounding (Khalil Tate) to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 25
OPP 37
+47
33.5%
Lucas Havrisik 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2434% → 33%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
34.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
36.0%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+10
35.0%
Conor Blount pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 10 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
36.6%
Conor Blount sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 14
OWN 49
0
34.5%
Jack Colletto run for no gain to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+7
33.7%
Conor Blount pass complete to Kase Rogers for 7 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+19
32.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ariz 10 OREGON ST Penalty, kick catching interference (Kee Whetzel) to the Ariz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
29.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+50
29.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 50 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2170% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
30.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 16 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
28.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
28.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+7
27.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
27.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
27.7%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
28.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+8
29.8%
Jake Glatting run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
27.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
27.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Bryce Wolma, broken up by Shawn WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+16
16.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
20 plays · 41 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
19.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+4
19.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Smalls for 4 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+10
19.1%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
19.8%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Isaiah SmallsSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
19.6%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 2 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+8
19.5%
Conor Blount pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 8 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
21.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
21.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
21.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
21.6%
Conor Blount run for no gain to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (Kylan Wilborn) to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
22.4%
Conor Blount sacked by PJ Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+8
22.0%
Conor Blount pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 8 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+8
21.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
22.4%
Conor Blount run for no gain to the Ariz 15 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 20
OPP 25
-4
22.2%
Conor Blount run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 29 Conor Blount fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Jermar JeffersonSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 24
OPP 29
-10
21.8%
Blount, Conor pass complete to Bradford, T. for 3 yards to the ARIZ26 (FlanniganFowles), PENALTY OSU holding (Hernandez, T.) 10 yards to the ARIZ39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 34
OPP 39
+2
20.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Kase Rogers for 2 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 32
OPP 37
-1
20.5%
Kase Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 33
OPP 38
0
19.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 3:3288% → 98%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
12.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+13
12.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 13 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
12.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+27
11.4%
Shun Brown run for 27 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
10.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+24
10.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 24 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
9.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
9.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
2.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 8 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:293% → 8%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
3.1%
Conor Blount run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
3.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
3.1%
Conor Blount sacked by Jalen Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
3.0%
Conor Blount pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for no gain to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+15
3.0%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 15 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
3.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+8
3.6%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 8 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
3.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-1
3.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+7
3.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+3
3.7%
Kase Rogers run for 3 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
3.8%
Conor Blount run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
7.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 25 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2895% → 99%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
5.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 4 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
0.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 62 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.3%
Jack Colletto run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
1.3%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 4 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
1.3%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
1.3%
Daniel Rodriguez run for a loss of 15 yards to the OrgSt 17 Daniel Rodriguez fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Daniel Rodriguez , return for no gain to the OrgSt 17 Daniel Rodriguez fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Daniel RodriguezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
0.8%
Anthony Mariscal run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+8
0.8%
Rhett Rodriguez run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.8%
Anthony Mariscal run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 1 Anthony Mariscal fumbled, forced by Matthew Tago, recovered by OrgSt Matthew TagoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
1.0%
Kase Rogers run for no gain to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
1.0%
Kase Rogers run for no gain to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+3
1.0%
Kase Rogers run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
1.0%
Luke Loecher punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
0.5%
Branden Leon run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:39
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q4 13:23
Gary Brightwell run for 8 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
-7.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:55
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 8
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com