Try the model
STAN

Stanford 38 at Oregon 31

ORE
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Autzen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDFGFUMBLETDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-30.2ORE 58.9%K.J. Costello pass complete to JJArcega-Whiteside for 15 yds for a TD,(Jet Toner KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 31 · Q4 3:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:10 · K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 15 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 143Home team on offense+0.9Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Pregame prior−0.3Time remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:12: Bryce Love run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +22.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 4:39: Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +17.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:10: K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 15 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +30.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 0:00: Jet Toner 32 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +39.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Colby Parkinson 23 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick) — STAN win probability +19.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 10:39STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:55STAN 4th & 5 at ORE 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:52STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 24, down 14
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:55ORE 4th & 18 at STAN 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−5.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:34ORE 4th & 23 at STAN 35, up 17
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:14STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 15, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:23ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:36ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−3.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:50STAN 4th & 1 at ORE 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%−4.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−8.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:51ORE 4th & 1 at STAN 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−7.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−25.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:30ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:26ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:14STAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:30ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:12STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:39ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:10STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 4:1055% → 54%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
44.8%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
44.9%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+11
45.1%
Bryce Love run for 11 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
45.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
45.2%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-10
45.3%
Love, Bryce rush for 3 yards to the STANFORD48, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Burkett, Jesse) 10 yards to the STANFORD35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
45.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby Parkinson, broken up by Troy DyeSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
46.1%
Jake Bailey punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:0346% → 50%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
45.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 8 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+14
46.2%
Justin Herbert run for 14 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
46.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 1 yd to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-1
46.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+53
46.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 53 yds to the Stanf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
49.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:2951% → 49%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.9%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
49.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+24
49.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
50
+8
48.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 8 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-2
49.1%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-1
49.7%
K.J. Costello sacked by Ugochukwu Amadi and Kaulana Apelu for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
50.8%
Jake Bailey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
16 plays · 88 yds · 6:2451% → 62%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
51.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+4
51.5%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+6
51.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 6 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
52.3%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+18
52.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 18 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
53.6%
CJ Verdell run for 10 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-13
53.9%
Justin Herbert sacked by Bobby Okereke for a loss of 13 yards to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 23
OWN 45
+9
53.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 9 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+28
53.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 28 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
55.5%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+3
55.5%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the Stanf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
56.0%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Stanf 7Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
56.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to CJ VerdellSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
61.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:5941% → 47%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
59.4%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+13
60.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 13 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
59.4%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
60.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for no gain to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+40
61.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 40 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
59.8%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
52.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 13 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3956% → 68%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
56.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
57.5%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
59.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 7 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
58.8%
Verdell, CJ rush for 1 yard to the OREGON48, PENALTY STANFORD offside (Fox, Jordan) 5 yards to the STANFORD48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
68.0%
CJ Verdell run for 48 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2335% → 33%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
65.5%
Bryce Love run for 6 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+2
65.7%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
66.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Ugochukwu AmadiSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
67.4%
Jake Bailey punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 3:4868% → 83%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
67.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 8 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-1
69.0%
Justin Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-5
70.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Jake Hanson) to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+17
70.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 17 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
72.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 3 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+28
73.7%
Justin Herbert run for 28 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
75.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+11
75.1%
CJ Verdell run for 11 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
75.4%
Justin Herbert run for no gain to the Stanf 13Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 11
OPP 14
-7
75.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 21Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-1
77.9%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 14Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 18
OPP 21
+38
82.5%
Adam Stack 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:3718% → 22%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
82.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
79.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 8 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden Smith, broken up by Jordon ScottSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
83.1%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+5
72.7%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-18
78.3%
K.J. Costello sacked by Justin Hollins for a loss of 18 yards to the Stanf 45 K.J. Costello fumbled, forced by Justin Hollins, recovered by Stanf Jesse Burkett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 5:2180% → 86%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
79.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 21 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
80.7%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+14
80.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 14 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
81.8%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+6
83.3%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
83.5%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.4%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Stanf 22Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-4
86.7%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-9
86.5%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jordan Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 23
OPP 35
0
86.3%
Tom Snee punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trenton Irwin at the Stanf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2015% → 12%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
85.1%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Walker Little) to the Stanf 3Similar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+8
85.2%
Bryce Love run for 8 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+4
85.4%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
86.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Stanf 15Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+10
87.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 44 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for 10 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12FUMBLE TD
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:2390% → 81%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
89.7%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+10
90.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
90.3%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
90.6%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+13
90.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 13 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
91.3%
Jaylon Redd run for 16 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-9
91.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 10 Cyrus Habibi-Likio fumbled, recovered by Oregn Justin HerbertSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
92.0%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+80
80.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by Stanf Joey Alfieri , return for 80 yds, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0779% → 79%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.0%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
80.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
79.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson III, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
78.7%
Tom Snee punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trenton Irwin at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:0522% → 45%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
78.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 11 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+32
77.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 32 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
54.6%
Bryce Love run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2862% → 64%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 6 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
63.7%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
66.0%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jordan Fox and Dylan Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
63.8%
Tom Snee punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:3537% → 39%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.6%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+22
60.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 22 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
58.7%
Bryce Love run for 8 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
56.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Bryce LoveSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
58.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
61.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 6:0269% → 92%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
69.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 21 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
73.0%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+8
73.2%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
73.6%
Dye, Travis rush for 2 yards to the STANFORD37, PENALTY OREGON holding (Hanson, Jake) 10 yards to the STANFORD49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+2
71.6%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 18
OPP 47
+13
71.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 13 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+8
73.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 8 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
75.4%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+9
76.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 9 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
75.6%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+16
75.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 16 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:208% → 41%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+49
91.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 49 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
88.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 20 yds to the Oregn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
89.1%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (A.T. Hall) to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
58.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 15 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:1980% → 93%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
80.4%
OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnny Johnson III) to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+23
80.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 23 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
85.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
87.5%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
87.6%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
50
+7
89.6%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
92.8%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Stanf 40 CJ Verdell fumbled, forced by Noah Williams, recovered by Stanf Sean BartonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:4620% → 62%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
79.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
80.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+16
82.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 16 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
76.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 16 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
70.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Bryce Love for 9 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
79.1%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+32
38.1%
Jet Toner 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
20.8%
Colby Parkinson 23 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22Uncategorized
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0015% → 10%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
15.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
13.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 15 yds to the Stanf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
15.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
15.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
11.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
9.9%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted, touchback. Alameen Murphy return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Jet Toner 32 yd FG GOOD
-39.5
TD · Q4 3:10
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 15 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)
-30.2
TD · Q3 0:12
Bryce Love run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)
-22.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com