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IDST

Idaho State 23 at California 45

CAL
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadIDST aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreIDST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:20 · Christopher Brown Jr. run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:13: Campbell Sheidow 23 yd FG GOOD — IDST win probability +0.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:01: Campbell Sheidow kickoff for 54 yds , Ashtyn Davis return for 89 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:53: Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 14 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:07: Ty Flanagan run for 11 yds for a TD (Campbell Sheidow PAT BLOCKED) — IDST win probability +2.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:04: Greg Thomas 44 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 8IDST made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:11IDST 4th & 1 at IDST 21, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:09CAL 4th & 7 at IDST 45, tied
    Close callWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    97.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:09CAL 4th & 10 at IDST 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:57IDST 4th & 3 at IDST 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:33CAL 4th & 10 at IDST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00IDST 4th & 5 at IDST 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:51CAL 4th & 5 at IDST 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:13IDST 4th & 6 at CAL 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:01IDST 4th & 7 at CAL 42, down 18
    Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:57IDST 4th & 1 at IDST 14, down 18
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00IDST 4th & 13 at IDST 43, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:01CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 35, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:01IDST 4th & 10 at IDST 20, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:04CAL 4th & 7 at IDST 27, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00IDST 4th & 5 at midfield, down 22
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:17IDST 4th & 10 at IDST 17, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:13CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 39, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IDST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 1:41CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:57CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:53CAL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:07IDST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:23CAL Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:04CAL Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:23IDST Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:26IDST Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
98.6%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
98.6%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
98.4%
James Madison run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 16Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+5
98.4%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to James Madison for 5 yds to the IdaSt 21Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
98.4%
Tanner Gueller run for no gain to the IdaSt 21Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+10
98.4%
Kevin Ryan punt for 37 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 10 yds to the IdaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 0:5898% → 98%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Ray HudsonSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
98.2%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for 8 yds to the IdaSt 40Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-9
98.2%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 39 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the IdaSt 49Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 11
OPP 49
-5
98.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+9
98.2%
Chase Garbers run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+10
98.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 10 yds to the IdaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
98.2%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 2 yards to the IdaSt 37Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+8
98.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 8 yds to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-6
98.1%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 6 yards to the IdaSt 35Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
98.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.8%
Ty Flanagan run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 23Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
97.8%
Ty Flanagan run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 27Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
97.8%
Tanner Gueller pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+14
97.9%
Kevin Ryan punt for 50 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 14 yds to the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
97.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 1 yd to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
97.7%
Chase Garbers run for 14 yds to the IdaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
97.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 3 yds to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
97.7%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 42Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-6
97.7%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 6 yards to the IdaSt 48 Chase Garbers fumbled, recovered by Cal Chase GarbersSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
97.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 6INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
97.2%
James Madison run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 8Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+4
97.2%
James Madison run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 12Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
97.2%
Tanner Gueller pass intercepted Ashtyn Davis return for no gain to the IdaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:5897% → 98%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
97.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 31Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+2
97.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
97.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Ian Bunting for 24 yds to the IdaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.5%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:413% → 3%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Ty Flanagan run for no gain to the IdaSt 25Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.4%
Tanner Gueller run for 6 yds to the IdaSt 31Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
97.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Tanner Gueller for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.2%
Kevin Ryan punt for 34 yds, downed at the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:5497% → 98%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
97.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 21 yds to the IdaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.3%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 39Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
97.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Anthony RicksSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+1
97.3%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 38Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+9
97.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Ian Bunting for 9 yds to the IdaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
97.3%
Chase Garbers sacked by Kody Graves for a loss of 5 yards to the IdaSt 34Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+6
97.3%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the IdaSt 28Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+28
97.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 28 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 10FG
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:443% → 3%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.5%
Tanner Gueller run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+63
97.5%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Mitch Gueller for 63 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.3%
James Madison run for no gain to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
97.3%
Tanner Gueller run for 2 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.4%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Mitch Gueller, broken up by Traveon BeckSimilar
Q2 10:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
96.8%
Campbell Sheidow 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.9%
Tanner Gueller run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 27Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Mitch GuellerSimilar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
97.9%
GUELLER, Tanner sacked for loss of 5 yards to the ISU22 (Ogunbanjo, Jose), PENALTY CAL face mask (Ogunbanjo, Jose) 15 yards to the ISU42, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.9%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Austin Campbell, broken up by Evan WeaverSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
97.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 1 yd to the IdaSt 43Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+12
97.9%
GUELLER, Tanner pass incomplete to GUELLER, Mitch, PENALTY CAL pass interference (Drayden, Josh) 12 yards to the CAL45, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
97.8%
Ty Flanagan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+6
97.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Austin Campbell for 6 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
97.8%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Ty FlanaganSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+4
97.9%
Kevin Ryan punt for 34 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 4 yds to the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FUMBLE
10 plays · 83 yds · 1:1798% → 98%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
97.9%
Marcel Dancy run for 12 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
97.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 20 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
98.0%
Brandon McIlwain run for 8 yds to the IdaSt 48Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+11
97.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 11 yds to the IdaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
97.9%
Marcel Dancy run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 33Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
97.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+7
97.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 7 yds to the IdaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hawkins, broken up by Christian McFarlandSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+17
97.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 17 yds Vic Wharton III fumbled, forced by Caleb Brown, recovered by IdaSt Christian McFarlandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
97.7%
Tanner Gueller pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-2
97.7%
IDAHO ST Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the IdaSt 3Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+6
97.7%
Tanner Gueller run for 6 yds to the IdaSt 9Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+5
97.7%
James Madison run for 5 yds to the IdaSt 14Similar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
97.6%
Kevin Ryan punt for 44 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 1:3498% → 99%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
97.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 7 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+3
97.8%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
97.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 19 yds to the IdaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Maurice Ways, broken up by Koby LoweSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
97.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds to the IdaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
97.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
97.8%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 14Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
99.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 14 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
97.6%
Ty Flanagan run for 7 yds to the IdaSt 33Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
97.1%
Ty Flanagan run for 6 yds to the IdaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
97.3%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Alex Funches for a loss of 4 yards to the IdaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.9%
James Madison run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
98.8%
James Madison run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Mitch Gueller for 6 yds to the IdaSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
98.8%
James Madison run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
98.8%
James Madison run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.8%
Ty Flanagan run for no gain to the IdaSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-15
98.8%
GUELLER, Tanner pass complete to GUELLER, Mitch for 8 yards to the CAL46 (Toailoa, Lone), PENALTY ISU pass interference (CAMPBELL, A.) 15 yards to the ISU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 31
+3
98.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Ty Flanagan for 3 yds to the IdaSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 34
+9
98.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Mitch Gueller for 9 yds to the IdaSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Kevin Ryan punt for 30 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the Cal 27 Nikko Remigio fumbled, recovered by Cal Nikko RemigioSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hawkins, broken up by Christian HollandSimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+34
99.4%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Koby Lowe return for 34 yds to the Cal 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:371% → 3%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
99.0%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Jordan Kunaszyk for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+3
99.0%
Ty Flanagan run for 3 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.1%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Tanner Conner for 3 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+12
99.1%
GUELLER, Tanner pass incomplete to GUELLER, Mitch (Drayden, Josh), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Drayden, Josh) 12 yards to the CAL11, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
97.1%
Ty Flanagan run for 11 yds for a TD (Campbell Sheidow PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
98.5%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Patrick Laird for no gain to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
98.4%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
98.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
97.7%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to James Madison for 1 yd to the IdaSt 21Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
97.7%
James Madison run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 25Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
97.7%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Aaron Maldonado for a loss of 5 yards to the IdaSt 20Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.7%
Kevin Ryan punt for 50 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 4 yds to the Cal 24 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Maurice Ways) to the Cal 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 6:5798% → 99%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
98.4%
Marcel Dancy run for 1 yd to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+6
98.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Ian Bunting for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+14
98.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Evan Rambo for 14 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.5%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 5
50
+1
98.5%
Marcel Dancy run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 49Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+9
98.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Ian Bunting for 9 yds to the IdaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
98.5%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Laird, Patrick, PENALTY ISU pass interference (MOALA, Paea) 10 yards to the ISU30, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
98.5%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 27Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-10
98.5%
Laird, Patrick rush for 5 yards to the ISU22 (MOALA, Paea), PENALTY CAL holding (Daltoso, Valent) 10 yards to the ISU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+5
98.5%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the IdaSt 32Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+5
98.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 5 yds to the IdaSt 27Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
99.2%
Greg Thomas 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:041% → 1%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
Tanner Gueller run for 5 yds to the IdaSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
99.2%
Ty Flanagan run for 15 yds to the IdaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.2%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Ty Flanagan for 3 yds to the IdaSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
99.2%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Mitch Gueller, broken up by Elijah HicksSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+2
99.2%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to James Madison for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
50
0
99.2%
Kevin Ryan punt for 39 yds, downed at the Cal 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 2:5299% → 100%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
99.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 8 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+11
99.3%
Marcel Dancy run for 11 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
99.3%
Marcel Dancy run for 12 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
99.4%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+18
99.4%
Marcel Dancy run for 18 yds to the IdaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Maurice Ways for 7 yds to the IdaSt 28Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+8
99.4%
Chase Garbers run for 8 yds to the IdaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Ashton for 20 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
99.9%
James Madison run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 21Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Tanner Gueller run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 24Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-7
99.9%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Jordan Kunaszyk and Aaron Maldonado for a loss of 7 yards to the IdaSt 17Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+46
99.9%
Kevin Ryan punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IdaSt 4 , Nikko Remigio returns for 46 yds to the IdaSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 4 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 27TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Ty Flanagan run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
99.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the IdaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
99.9%
James Madison run for 7 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+11
99.9%
Michael Dean run for 11 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Mitch Gueller for 8 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
James Madison run for 4 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
99.9%
James Madison run for 8 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+2
99.9%
James Madison run for 2 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Mitch Gueller for 16 yds for a TD (Campbell Sheidow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete CALIFORNIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds , Kieran Yancy returns for no gain to the IdaSt 39 CALIFORNIA Penalty, kick catching interference (Branden Smith) to the IdaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 29TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:330% → 1%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
100.0%
James Madison run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 31Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+54
100.0%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Mitch Gueller for 54 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.9%
Kieran Yancy run for 6 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+1
99.9%
Kieran Yancy run for 1 yd to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+6
99.9%
GUELLER, Tanner pass incomplete to GUELLER, Mitch, PENALTY CAL pass interference (Turner III, Tre) 6 yards to the CAL2, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
GUELLER, Tanner pass incomplete to GUELLER, Mitch, PENALTY CAL pass interference (Nwokocha, Chibu) 1 yards to the CAL1, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
James Madison run for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
James Madison run for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
James Madison run for 1 yd for a TD (Campbell Sheidow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 30Uncategorized
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
99.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 16 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:07
Ty Flanagan run for 11 yds for a TD (Campbell Sheidow PAT BLOCKED)
-2
TD · Q2 0:53
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 14 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 10:01
Campbell Sheidow kickoff for 54 yds , Ashtyn Davis return for 89 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com