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ORST

Oregon State 35 at Nevada 37

NEV
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:44 · Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+20.0+10.00−10.0−20.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense+13.8Pregame prior+9.3Score differential+10.7Garbage-time factor+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:12: Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +10.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:22: Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 3 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +9.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:40: Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +21.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:13: Kelton Moore run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +13.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:40: Kase Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +31.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 9 of 9ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:17NEV 4th & 8 at ORST 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:18ORST 4th & 8 at NEV 36, down 23
    Close callPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:34NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 3, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:44ORST 4th & 1 at NEV 30, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:12NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 24, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:22NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:11ORST 4th & 23 at ORST 11, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−3.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:59NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−2.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:42ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:46NEV 4th & 10 at midfield, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:19ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 8, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:54NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 42, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−3.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:23NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 9, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:11ORST 4th & 6 at NEV 31, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:40NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−2.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:07ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.9%−2.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:21ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.2%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:00NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:15ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:01NEV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:33NEV Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:12ORST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:22ORST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:40ORST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:13NEV Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:40ORST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0065% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
65.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 13 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
65.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
65.3%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
65.3%
Toa Taua pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 6 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
65.3%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+25
65.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 25 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
65.3%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
66.4%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
68.4%
Conor Blount run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
68.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-5
69.0%
Conor Blount sacked by Korey Rush for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 15
+29
69.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 43 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 29 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4534% → 36%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.0%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
65.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
65.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+19
65.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 19 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
65.7%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 23 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
65.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+2
65.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
65.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Nevad 5Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
65.6%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
63.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 5:5865% → 65%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.7%
Ty Gangi run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
65.0%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
64.8%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+15
64.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 15 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
65.3%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
65.4%
Ty Gangi run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+19
65.3%
Toa Taua run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
65.5%
Ty Gangi run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 12 NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
65.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 16 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-11
65.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 21
OPP 22
+8
65.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 8 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+5
65.1%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
64.9%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
65.3%
Ramiz Ahmed 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
65.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 2 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dameon Baber) to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
65.1%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
65.2%
Kase Rogers run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+15
65.3%
Conor Blount pass intercepted Jomon Dotson return for 15 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 1:0867% → 69%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
66.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-2
66.6%
Ty Gangi run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
69.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 24 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:3171% → 78%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
70.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 20 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
78.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 9 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0225% → 14%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
74.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 21 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
74.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Kee Whetzel) to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+10
74.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-2
73.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+48
85.9%
Conor Blount sacked by Asauni Rufus for a loss of 13 yards Conor Blount fumbled, recovered by Nevad Malik Reed , return for 0 yards , return for 48 yds (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.2%
Champ Flemings run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Nephi SewellSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+27
86.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Smalls for 27 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-11
85.8%
Jake Luton sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 21
OPP 49
+13
86.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 13 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
86.2%
Jake Luton punt for 33 yds, downed at the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 21
OPP 49
0
86.2%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
88.4%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
88.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
88.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Trae Carter-WellsSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
87.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:3212% → 23%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.7%
Timmy Hernandez pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
87.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+10
87.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+4
87.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
86.9%
Jake Luton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+26
87.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 26 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.2%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
81.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
81.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
17 plays · 87 yds · 3:0120% → 31%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
80.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+8
80.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 8 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
80.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Chris Green) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
50
+9
78.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+8
77.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
77.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Christian WallaceSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
77.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Smalls for 5 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+7
79.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
79.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+6
78.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 6 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
78.0%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+17
78.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 17 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
78.0%
Kase Rogers run for 2 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 3 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
77.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
73.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
73.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+6
74.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Smalls for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
74.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
75.9%
MOORE, Kelton rush for 4 yards to the NEVADA29 (Taumoelau, Doug), PENALTY NEVADA holding (LEDBETTER, J.) 10 yards to the NEVADA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
75.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Hamilcar Rashed Jr.Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+17
74.9%
Ty Gangi run for 17 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
74.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
76.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
75.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-10
75.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 12
OWN 22
-6
77.5%
Jake Luton sacked by Kaleb Meder for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 16 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 18
OWN 16
-5
78.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Kee Whetzel) to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 23
OWN 11
0
78.0%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 46 yds, downed at the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0080% → 77%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
80.0%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 38 Toa Taua fumbled, forced by Kalani Vakameilalo, recovered by Nevad Nate BrownSimilar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+2
79.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 2 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
78.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Shemar SmithSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
77.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 44 yds, downed at the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
77.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 7 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+6
76.6%
Christian Wallace run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
76.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+24
77.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 24 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-11
74.8%
Jake Luton sacked by Maliek Broady for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 21
OWN 42
0
77.1%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 21
OWN 42
+4
77.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Justin Gardner for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
78.7%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
80.5%
Kelton Moore run for 15 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
80.8%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+15
79.6%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to FOSSUM, Kaleb, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Kell, Drew) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
50
0
82.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
50
0
82.0%
Kaleb Fossum pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 10
50
0
80.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Jalen MooreSimilar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 10
50
0
79.5%
Ty Gangi punt for 42 yds, downed at the OrgSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
81.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 4
OWN 14
-1
81.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
82.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jermar JeffersonSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 5
OWN 13
-5
83.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Dwayne Williams) to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 10
OWN 8
+46
83.3%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEVADA 46 NEVADA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0084% → 81%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
84.1%
Ty Gangi sacked by Elu Aydon and LaMone Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+1
83.2%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 14
OWN 42
0
82.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
80.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 39 yds , TraJon Cotton returns for no gain to the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23INT
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:2218% → 22%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
82.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 5 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+5
81.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 5 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+51
82.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 51 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
81.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
78.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Quinn Smith) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+7
79.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 7 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
78.3%
Jake Luton pass intercepted Berdale Robins return for no gain to the Nevad 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
82.4%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
82.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Dwayne WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
81.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 9
OWN 9
+15
80.8%
Quinton Conaway punt for 48 yds , TraJon Cotton returns for 15 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:4720% → 43%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
80.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+28
80.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 28 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
78.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+8
78.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 8 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2767% → 88%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
68.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 5 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
68.4%
Ty Gangi run for 23 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+35
71.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 35 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
72.5%
Ty Gangi run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 27MISSED FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:0214% → 15%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
85.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 40 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
80.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
80.1%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
82.3%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
84.7%
Jordan Choukair 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 28INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
86.3%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
87.3%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+30
86.3%
Toa Taua run for 30 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
88.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
87.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+30
86.5%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted John McCartan return for 30 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 29TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:0113% → 46%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
87.5%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 7 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+4
85.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+28
85.5%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Smalls for 28 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.9%
Kase Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.1%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
70.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trevion Armstrong for 1 yd to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
69.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 39 yds, fair catch by TraJon Cotton at the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 31MISSED FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 3:2536% → 37%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
64.2%
Conor Blount pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
66.1%
Conor Blount run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-1
63.5%
Conor Blount run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+10
66.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 10 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
60.5%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Kase RogersSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
62.3%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Kase Rogers, broken up by Dameon BaberSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
63.7%
Conor Blount pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for no gain to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+26
70.3%
Conor Blount pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 26 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
55.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+11
56.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
55.0%
NEVADA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 5
OPP 12
-3
55.0%
Conor Blount run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+34
62.7%
Jordan Choukair 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+37.3
TD · Q4 4:40
Kase Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-31.7
TD · Q4 11:40
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com