2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreWASH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:12 · Race Porter punt for 34 yds , Britain Covey returns for 22 yds to the Utah 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:21: Zack Moss run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +5.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:49: Jake Browning run for 1 yd for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +5.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:37: Jake Browning pass complete to Ty Jones for 6 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +11.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 12:35: Zack Moss run for 1 yd to the Wash 10 — UTAH win probability +6.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:00: Myles Gaskin run for 4 yds to the Wash 6 — WASH win probability +6.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 13:43UTAH 4th & 11 at UTAH 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it41.3%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.4%average punt
- Q1 8:58UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snapGo for it40.2%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.3%average punt
- Q1 5:40WASH 4th & 12 at WASH 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snapGo for it59.5%−0.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.0%average punt
- Q2 9:48UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snapGo for it36.3%−1.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.7%average punt
- Q2 8:12WASH 4th & 10 at UTAH 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snapGo for it62.8%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.3%average punt
- Q2 5:31UTAH 4th & 1 at WASH 45, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it38.1%70% to convertField goal34.4%−3.725% to makePuntTheir call35.3%−2.8average punt
- Q3 13:06WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 34, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it68.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.5%−1.5average punt
- Q3 3:41WASH 4th & 11 at WASH 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snapGo for it84.4%−1.926% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.3%average punt
- Q3 1:45UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snapGo for it14.8%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q4 11:24UTAH 4th & 1 at WASH 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.4%60% to convertField goal12.3%−2.194% to makePunt4.5%−9.9average punt
- Q4 10:00WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 7, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.0%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.6%average punt
- Q4 6:04UTAH 4th & 16 at WASH 20, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 2.3 ptsWent for it · 6.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.5%−2.314% to convertField goal7.8%75% to makePunt4.2%−3.6average punt
- Q4 2:33WASH 4th & 12 at WASH 34, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%average punt
- Q4 0:36UTAH 4th & 19 at WASH 31, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%−1.011% to convertField goal3.7%54% to makePunt2.4%−1.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:10WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.6%97% to makeGo for two58.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:21UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.4%97% to makeGo for two44.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:49WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.4%97% to makeGo for two60.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:37WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1336% → 36%
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 4 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
36.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 24Similar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
36.0%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD5 plays · 65 yds · 2:2064% → 65%
Q1 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+11
36.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 11 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5236% → 35%
Q1 8:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+9
35.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 43 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 9 yds to the Wash 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 3:0565% → 64%
Q1 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
35.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 9 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-10
35.2%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaxson Kirkland) to the Wash 32Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+8
35.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 8 yds to the Wash 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5TD12 plays · 80 yds · 5:0936% → 43%
Q1 4:27
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
35.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Connor Haller for 4 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
37.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 5 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
36.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 5 yds to the Wash 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1160% → 67%
UTAHDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:5235% → 33%
WASHDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 10 yds · 1:2168% → 68%
UTAHDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2934% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 54 yds · 4:0467% → 70%
Q2 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+18
32.7%
Myles Gaskin run for 3 yds to the Wash 10 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, Personal Foul (Marquise Blair) to the Wash 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
31.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 13 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+41
28.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 41 yds to the Utah 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-16
27.0%
Jake Browning sacked by Mika Tafua for a loss of 16 yards to the Utah 32 WASHINGTON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jake Browning) to the Utah 32Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 26
OPP 32
-12
28.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for a loss of 12 yards to the Utah 44Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 38
OPP 44
+24
30.5%
Race Porter punt for 35 yds , Britain Covey returns for 24 yds to the Utah 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11INT10 plays · 30 yds · 1:0333% → 33%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
32.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 8 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+2
33.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 2 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
34.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 3
50
+11
34.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 11 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
35.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 2 yds to the Wash 37Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
32.8%
Tyler Huntley pass intercepted Jordan Miller return for no gain to the Wash 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4469% → 69%
Q3 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
30.8%
Race Porter punt for 43 yds , Britain Covey returns for 4 yds to the Utah 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14FUMBLE3 plays · 17 yds · 0:3432% → 31%
Q3 12:21
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+16
30.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 16 yds Britain Covey fumbled, forced by Tevis Bartlett, recovered by Wash Taylor Rapp , return for no gain to the Utah 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD9 plays · 44 yds · 3:3372% → 85%
UTAHDrive 16FUMBLE7 plays · 42 yds · 2:0518% → 19%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
18.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 14 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+15
19.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bronson Boyd for 15 yds Bronson Boyd fumbled, forced by Jordan Miller, recovered by Wash Taylor RappSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 2:1486% → 86%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
14.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 12 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
13.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for no gain to the Wash 44Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 11
OWN 44
+45
13.9%
Race Porter punt for 45 yds , Britain Covey returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5115% → 14%
WASHDrive 19INT9 plays · 30 yds · 3:5388% → 91%
UTAHDrive 20DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1115% → 14%
Q4 11:50
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+8
14.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 8 yds to the Wash 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0092% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22DOWNS9 plays · 8 yds · 3:4613% → 6%
WASHDrive 23PUNT12 plays · 14 yds · 3:1795% → 98%
Q4 4:24
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+14
4.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 14 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-15
3.1%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Andre Baccellia) to the Wash 23Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+28
2.2%
Race Porter punt for 36 yds , Britain Covey returns for 28 yds to the Wash 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24DOWNS8 plays · 11 yds · 1:392% → 1%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
1.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 5 yds to the Wash 37Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
1.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 4 yds to the Wash 33Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-9
1.4%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Greg Gaines for a loss of 9 yards to the Wash 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:37
Jake Browning pass complete to Ty Jones for 6 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
-11.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:35
Zack Moss run for 1 yd to the Wash 10
+6.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:00
Myles Gaskin run for 4 yds to the Wash 6
-6.5