2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Folsom Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadUNH aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreUNH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:40 · Christian Lupoli pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:45: Travon McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:57: Kyle Evans run for 6 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:48: Travon McMillian run for 75 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:38: Christian Lupoli pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 71 yds for a TD (Jason Hughes KICK) — UNH win probability +0.8 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:24: Alex Fontenot run for 15 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNH made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 10:06UNH 4th & 5 at UNH 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 8:28COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
- Q1 4:13UNH 4th & 7 at UNH 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 2:40COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00UNH 4th & 19 at UNH 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 10:45UNH 4th & 7 at COLO 28, down 14Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%−<0.137% to convertField goal3.2%60% to makePunt2.5%−0.7average punt
- Q2 5:56UNH 4th & 17 at COLO 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.314% to convertField goalTheir call3.5%66% to makePunt2.7%−0.8average punt
- Q2 1:06UNH 4th & 4 at COLO 42, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%48% to convertField goal0.4%−0.230% to makePunt0.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 14:48UNH 4th & 4 at UNH 31, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 13:08COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 36, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 10:33UNH 4th & 4 at UNH 49, down 35Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:27COLO 4th & 2 at UNH 2, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−0.194% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:38COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 28, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00UNH 4th & 14 at UNH 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q4 14:34COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 36, up 24Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 11:40UNH 4th & 3 at UNH 43, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:45COLO 4th & 2 at UNH 35, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%57% to convertField goal99.1%−0.145% to makePunt99.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:15COLO 4th & 1 at UNH 30, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.156% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:21UNH 4th & 10 at COLO 32, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.0%51% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:06COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:45COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:57COLO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:48COLO Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:56UNH Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:38UNH Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:24COLO Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNHDrive 1INT8 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.8%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 3 yds to the NHamp 28Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
98.8%
NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, delay of game (Christian Lupoli) to the NHamp 35Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-2
98.8%
Christian Lupoli sacked by Mustafa Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the NHamp 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+17
98.8%
Christian Lupoli pass intercepted Rick Gamboa return for 17 yds to the NHamp 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2TD3 plays · 28 yds · 1:0499% → 99%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
98.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 1 yd to the NHamp 27Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-1
98.5%
Steven Montez sacked by Brian Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the NHamp 28Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
98.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 28 yds for a TD NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.5%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 7 yds to the NHamp 32Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Christian Lupoli pass incomplete to Malik Love, broken up by Nick FisherSimilar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Drew Sanborn punt for 51 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for no gain to the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT12 plays · 25 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
98.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 3 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+7
98.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 7 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+2
98.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 2 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+5
98.3%
Montez, Steven pass intercepted by Smith,Prince at the COLO47, Smith,Prince return to the COLO46, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UNH offside defense (Kania,Josh) 5 yards to the COLO35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+13
98.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 13 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
98.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 8 yds to the NHamp 49Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-15
98.4%
Brown, Tony rush for 1 yard to the UNH48 (Carter,Brian), PENALTY COLO face mask (Moretti, Jacob) 15 yards to the COLO36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+8
98.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 8 yds to the Colo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
97.9%
Christian Lupoli pass incomplete to Neil O'Connor, broken up by Delrick Abrams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 4 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-9
97.8%
Steven Montez sacked by Brian Carter for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 30 Steven Montez fumbled, recovered by Colo Aaron Haigler , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+7
97.7%
Davis Price punt for 44 yds , Sean Coyne returns for 7 yds to the NHamp 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:533% → 3%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
97.5%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 8 yds to the NHamp 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-9
97.4%
Christian Lupoli sacked by Jacob Callier for a loss of 9 yards to the NHamp 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 36
+20
97.5%
Drew Sanborn punt for 39 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 20 yds to the Colo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD9 plays · 55 yds · 2:3697% → 98%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
97.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 3 yds to the NHamp 32Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
97.4%
Evans, Kyle rush for 3 yards to the UNH6 (Bradshaw,Jacob;Kuehl,Jared), PENALTY UNH 12 men on the field 5 yards to the UNH4, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 9MISSED FG15 plays · 50 yds · 4:492% → 3%
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
97.7%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Carlos Washington Jr. for 8 yds to the NHamp 43Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+15
97.6%
COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (Delrick Abrams Jr.) to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-6
97.5%
Christian Lupoli sacked by Nate Landman for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5998% → 99%
Q2 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+53
97.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 53 yds to the NHamp 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 11FUMBLE TD5 plays · 4 yds · 1:131% → 0%
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
98.7%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Kieran Presley for 4 yds to the NHamp 14Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+10
98.7%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Malik Love for 10 yds to the NHamp 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
99.6%
Christian Lupoli sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards Christian Lupoli fumbled, recovered by Colo Davion Taylor , return for 0 yards , return for 14 yds (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 12DOWNS9 plays · 28 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.6%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Sean Coyne for 7 yds to the NHamp 37Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+15
99.6%
Lupoli,Christia sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UNH31 (Antwine, Israel), PENALTY COLO face mask (Lang, Terrance) 15 yards to the COLO48, 1ST DOWN UNH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Christian Lupoli pass incomplete to Evan Gray, broken up by Jase FrankeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13INT9 plays · 46 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
99.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 10 yds to the NHamp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 15 yds to the NHamp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
99.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 11 yds to the NHamp 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
99.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyre, broken up by Rick EllisonSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
99.7%
Steven Montez pass intercepted, touchback. Evan Horn return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.7%
Christian Lupoli sacked by Javier Edwards for a loss of 6 yards to the NHamp 19Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+12
99.7%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Evan Gray for 12 yds to the NHamp 31 NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:48
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-4
99.7%
Drew Sanborn punt for 60 yds , Donovan Lee returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 5 Donovan Lee fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
UNHDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:33
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+15
99.8%
Carlos Washington Jr. run for 15 yds to the NHamp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+9
99.8%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 9 yds to the NHamp 49Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Christian Lupoli pass incomplete to Neil O'Connor, broken up by Delrick Abrams Jr.Similar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 4
OWN 49
-3
99.8%
Drew Sanborn punt for 47 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 1 Ronnie Blackmon fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19INT TD3 plays · 3 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q3 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+15
99.8%
Sam Noyer pass intercepted for a TD Pop Lacey return for 15 yds for a TD (Mitch McPike KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FG12 plays · 73 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.9%
Fontenot, Alex rush for 5 yards to the UNH20 (Bush,Pop), PENALTY UNH 12 men on the field 5 yards to the UNH20, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 21TD3 plays · 82 yds · 0:420% → 1%
COLODrive 22PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 2:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Davis Price punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Evan Horn at the NHamp 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q3 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-10
99.3%
Lupoli,Christia pass complete to Coyne, Sean for 8 yards to the UNH38 (Abrams, Delrick), PENALTY UNH holding (Mascia,Matt) 10 yards to the UNH20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+6
99.3%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Carlos Washington Jr. for 6 yds to the NHamp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
UNHDrive 25DOWNS6 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.4%
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Evan Gray for 4 yds to the NHamp 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26TD9 plays · 43 yds · 5:21100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 27FUMBLE7 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
COLODrive 28DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 29Uncategorized7 plays · 46 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:57
Kyle Evans run for 6 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q3 2:38
Christian Lupoli pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 71 yds for a TD (Jason Hughes KICK)
-0.8
TD · Q2 10:45
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)
+0.5