Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 38 at UCLA 14

UCLA
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Rose Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:22 · Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 6 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense−7.6Score differential−4.0Pregame prior−5.1Garbage-time factor−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:41: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 10 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +5.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:59: Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:29: Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd for a TD (Jorge Reyna pass to Gunner Javernick for Two-Point Conversion) — FRES win probability +15.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:43: Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +12.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:04: Marcus McMaryion run for 2 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +5.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:03UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:17FRES 4th & 7 at UCLA 11, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−5.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:17UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 49, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.6%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:22UCLA 4th & 3 at FRES 36, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%−1.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:58FRES 4th & 14 at UCLA 43, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:45UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:25FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 44, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:21UCLA 4th & 14 at UCLA 24, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:59FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:46UCLA 4th & 14 at UCLA 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−3.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:43UCLA 4th & 4 at FRES 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−2.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:22FRES 4th & 4 at UCLA 18, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:07UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 25, down 24
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:03FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:41FRES Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:44UCLA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:59UCLA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:29FRES Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:43FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:04FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:5757% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
42.6%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Rick Wade) to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
42.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 8 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
42.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+13
42.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 13 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
42.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
42.9%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+9
43.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 9 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
42.9%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+13
42.9%
Jordan Mims run for 13 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
42.9%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the UCLA 2Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
42.9%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the UCLA 1Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
43.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
43.1%
Thompson-Robins sacked for loss of 12 yards to the UCLA16 (ALLISON, J.), PENALTY FS holding (BAILEY, James) 10 yards to the UCLA38, 1ST DOWN UCLA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
43.4%
Kazmeir Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+5
43.4%
Martell Irby run for 5 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
43.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for no gain to the UCLA 42 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+33
43.2%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 38 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FRESNOST 20 UCLA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5257% → 63%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 9 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
42.9%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
42.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 37 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
42.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 7 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+2
42.4%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+9
42.5%
Marcus McMaryion run for 9 yds to the UCLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
42.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 10Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
37.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 10 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
38.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 9 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 1
OWN 16
0
38.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
38.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
38.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 7 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+12
38.7%
Martell Irby run for 12 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
38.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 38 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Patrick BelonySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:0264% → 68%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
36.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Justin Allen for 11 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
35.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Dejonte O'NealSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
35.8%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to RICE, Jared, PENALTY UCLA personal foul (Ogbonnia, Otito) 13 yards to the UCLA14, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
35.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 1 yd to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
35.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 2 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
35.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
31.8%
Asa Fuller 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
32.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 16 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
33.7%
Kazmeir Allen run for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
33.7%
Martell Irby run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 1
50
-1
33.9%
Martell Irby run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+1
33.8%
Martell Irby run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
29.6%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
29.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Josh Hokit, broken up by Quentin LakeSimilar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-9
29.8%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Keisean Lucier-South for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 43 Marcus McMaryion fumbled, recovered by UCLA Odua Isibor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:3833% → 38%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
32.6%
Kazmeir Allen run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
32.6%
Martell Irby run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
32.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+6
32.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 6 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
33.1%
UCLA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+45
38.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 45 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 3:4661% → 64%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.7%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
38.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 3 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
38.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
37.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
37.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+5
37.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
37.4%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, KeeSea, QB hurry by Lucier-South, K, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Holmes, Darnay) 13 yards to the UCLA39, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
37.1%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
37.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
34.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 9
OPP 38
-5
35.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
36.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
36.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 4 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+12
36.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 12 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
36.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 5 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
36.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
36.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
36.2%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:1965% → 66%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
34.9%
KeeSean Johnson run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
34.2%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
33.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
33.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Justin Allen, broken up by Tyler ManoaSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
34.1%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-1
34.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+4
33.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 yds , Kyle Philips returns for 4 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:5433% → 33%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
33.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+16
33.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Christian Pabico for 16 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
33.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Christian PabicoSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
33.4%
Thompson-Robins pass complete to Howard, Theo for 14 yards to the UCLA42, out-of-bounds (KELLY, Anthoula), PENALTY UCLA illegal formation (Burton, Jake) 5 yards to the UCLA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+2
33.3%
Martell Irby run for 2 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 13
OWN 25
-1
32.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Mykal Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 24 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by UCLA Dorian Thompson-Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
32.7%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 70 yds, downed at the FrsSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
34.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.7%
Martell Irby run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
33.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle Philips, broken up by Mike BellSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-2
31.9%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 56 yds , KeeSean Johnson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 17 KeeSean Johnson fumbled, recovered by UCLA Johnny Den BleykerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:0938% → 51%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
37.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
37.6%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
44.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (Marcus McMaryion) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
44.3%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
44.6%
Marcus McMaryion run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.4%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to JORDAN, Jamire, PENALTY UCLA offside defense (Odighizuwa, Osa) 5 yards to the FS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
44.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
46.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 yds, downed at the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
46.4%
Thompson-Robins pass complete to Cota, Chase for 17 yards to the 50 yardline (HUGHES, Juju), PENALTY UCLA illegal motion (Wilson, Caleb) 5 yards to the UCLA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 15
OWN 28
-5
45.7%
UCLA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+2
45.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 18
OWN 25
+4
44.3%
Kazmeir Allen run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
43.6%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:1656% → 75%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+23
45.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
50
+5
41.4%
Jordan Mims run for 15 yds to the UCLA 35 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jared Rice) to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+24
41.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 24 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
40.0%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
40.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+8
41.4%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to MIMS, Jordan, PENALTY UCLA roughing passer (Lake, Quentin) 8 yards to the UCLA8, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
40.0%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.6%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd for a TD (Jorge Reyna pass to Gunner Javernick for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19INT
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0027% → 29%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
27.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 12 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Juju Hughes) to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
29.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Jeff Allison return for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 2:2075% → 89%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
24.7%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+45
24.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 45 yds to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
23.7%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
23.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 3 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21INT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0015% → 17%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
14.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Theo Howard for 17 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
16.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Martell IrbySimilar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
16.1%
Kazmeir Allen run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+4
15.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Dymond Lee for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+8
15.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 8 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
16.9%
Kazmeir Allen run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+23
17.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Jeff Allison return for 23 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:1291% → 98%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
8.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Kyle Riddering) to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+38
9.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 38 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
8.3%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+1
8.3%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+6
7.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 6 yds to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
7.7%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+3
7.7%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 2 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.8%
Martell Irby run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+33
2.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 33 yds Chase Cota fumbled, forced by Jaron Bryant, recovered by FrsSt James BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 40 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
2.1%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
2.1%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+8
2.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
2.1%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-5
2.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+8
2.1%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 8 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
2.1%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 9 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for no gain to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
2.0%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+10
2.1%
Jordan Mims run for 10 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
2.0%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
2.0%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
2.1%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 4
OPP 18
-4
2.3%
Josh Hokit run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
0.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Martell Irby for 3 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
0.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
0.9%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
0.7%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
0.7%
Saevion Johnson run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-2
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:29
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd for a TD (Jorge Reyna pass to Gunner Javernick for Two-Point Conversion)
-15.4
TD · Q3 12:59
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds for a TD (JJ Molson KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q3 3:43
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
-12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com